Tips for Tikay

[Marky147]

grats fred and draw backers.

Did u get the full £50 free on the no goal scorer market marky?

I did thankfully mate. I was planning to do my normal donkey double, however,  I felt obliged to punt after the free bet explanation was bumped this morning.

I did lay the draw for a monkey at 1.1 though


Congrats everyone who had it off!

[Tal]

I'm kinda glad it didn't come in as I might be accused of aftertiming but I think Fred was remiss not to back the recommendation of Schurrle FGS @ 18/1.
If you saw Hull come to Old Trafford playing 1 man up front and he was 18/1 to score first, I couldn't put you off backing him. And this was Chelsea!

As the game played out, Schurrle hardly had a sniff but we didn't know the game would play out like that. The point was he was mispriced. He was priced as a midfielder and he was a lone striker.
I also put up Rooney @ 10/1 and that's fine to rebuff it, it's a judgement call. But the Schurrle bet imo should have been taken. As I mentioned, I think it should have been a big bet (~£100) but for not it not to be taken for even £10?
I'm not annoyed or anything or taking it personally and I know Tikay was busy and he has a tough job deciding which bets to do or not. I'm just saying I think we missed a lot of value there.
If anyone disagrees, I'd be interested in hearing why.

TBF Fred had spent a lot of time and money on this game. Mostly my fault. Or Ray Winstone's.

Have to say I'm not one personally for FGS bets unless they are enhanced offers or I'm feeling particularly flush. Can't believe there's much value in that market. FWIW, Schürrle at 18/1 might have been too big but the tactics were completely wrong for a side that was playing him furthest forward. I'd've been properly miffed if I had joined you with a punt on that (not *at* you, you understand). Couldn't have put Tom Huddlestone as value at 18/1 and he can score on his own. Cracking hair, tho.

[Horneris]

Was a great bet Dazzler, we were all on Schurrle @ 16s and Rooney @ 10s

[Marky147]

I'm kinda glad it didn't come in as I might be accused of aftertiming but I think Fred was remiss not to back the recommendation of Schurrle FGS @ 18/1.
If you saw Hull come to Old Trafford playing 1 man up front and he was 18/1 to score first, I couldn't put you off backing him. And this was Chelsea!

As the game played out, Schurrle hardly had a sniff but we didn't know the game would play out like that. The point was he was mispriced. He was priced as a midfielder and he was a lone striker.
I also put up Rooney @ 10/1 and that's fine to rebuff it, it's a judgement call. But the Schurrle bet imo should have been taken. As I mentioned, I think it should have been a big bet (~£100) but for not it not to be taken for even £10?
I'm not annoyed or anything or taking it personally and I know Tikay was busy and he has a tough job deciding which bets to do or not. I'm just saying I think we missed a lot of value there.
If anyone disagrees, I'd be interested in hearing why.

I was on them both Dazzler, I had a tenner on Lampard at 14s, and Schurrle most shots too.

[horseplayer]

Sorry Tal but cant quite agree there

You would be miffed at getting 18-1 about a player starting furthest forward (lets put it that way) away at Old Trafford and not playing for a bottom 8 side?

He is not exactly prolific but in the last 12 months has scored a fair few goals at a decent ratio for Germany as well

[Tal]

Sorry Tal but cant quite agree there

You would be miffed at getting 18-1 about a player starting furthest forward (lets put it that way) away at Old Trafford and not playing for a bottom 8 side?

He is not exactly prolific but in the last 12 months has scored a fair few goals at a decent ratio for Germany as well

Sorry, what I mean is the bet might have been value at kick off, but Chelsea's tactics gave the bet no chance.

It's like backing a horse with Hughes on and there being a late jockey change and it's L Dettori.

[Tal]

Doesn't affect whether you should back it. Just my blood pressure.

[The Camel]

Actually doubt Tony could have had £50 on no goal scorer pre match come to think of it.

Best off just being a mug punter when this offer comes around and just picking the side he fancies to win and having £50 on it twice.

Might be giving up a few pennies in ev but he can't possibly fail to be having value and it's fun.

[scotty2hatty]

Bartoli hints at return to the game already seemingly, must have been retired about 2 weeks. Did anyone get on at the fancy prices that were mentioned?

http://www1.skysports.com/tennis/us-open/story/29393/8890178

[tikay]

I'm kinda glad it didn't come in as I might be accused of aftertiming but I think Fred was remiss not to back the recommendation of Schurrle FGS @ 18/1.
If you saw Hull come to Old Trafford playing 1 man up front and he was 18/1 to score first, I couldn't put you off backing him. And this was Chelsea!

As the game played out, Schurrle hardly had a sniff but we didn't know the game would play out like that. The point was he was mispriced. He was priced as a midfielder and he was a lone striker.
I also put up Rooney @ 10/1 and that's fine to rebuff it, it's a judgement call. But the Schurrle bet imo should have been taken. As I mentioned, I think it should have been a big bet (~£100) but for not it not to be taken for even £10?
I'm not annoyed or anything or taking it personally and I know Tikay was busy and he has a tough job deciding which bets to do or not. I'm just saying I think we missed a lot of value there.
If anyone disagrees, I'd be interested in hearing why.

Dazzy,

It had nothing to do with the assessed value or ANYTHING to do with the game, but you are due an explanation as we follow you blind on most of your stuff, as you know.

It was just time, my head was absolutely spinning.

For the last 4 evenings, ending this evening, next door have held an Online Festival, a sort of mini-mini WCOOP sorta thing. I have to give that priority, it's my job.

Last night (Sunday), some wheels seriously fell off, & I was inundated with stress & complaints whilst at the same time, playing two of the Tourneys, ringing the Office, firefighting, da de da. I alsio had company at home.

This evening I had to play two more of the Festival Tourneys, PLUS a special "Premier League" Promotional Freroll, where whoever busted me got £100. I HAVE to take that seriously, a) because it is right & proper, & b) because if I exit in a bad play, the haters would be all over me like a rash, accusing me of dumping off to a mate or whatever.

My first Tourney tonight began at 7.30, exactly when Fred exploded with various bet suggestions for the game, there must have been 10 or more. I must be getting past it, but truly, my head was all over the place trying to cope with everything at once, especially with poker Tables popping up all the time. (It is 6 Max, so not much respite). I had to puff the Tourneys & Premiership Freeroll on the Forum next door, too. Think I made over 30 Posts there this afternoon & evening.   

I half-watched the match kind of dreading your man scoring because I genuinely KNEW it was a great spot. (We were not to know the tactics, of course).

I agree with you totally, as to both Rooney & Schurrle, they were no-brainers, but I had just reached my plate-spinning limit at the time. My job - for so long as I have it - must take priority.

While we are on the subject, I'll be working 3 more nights this week, minimum, tomorow an evening Meet at Head Office in Leeds, Thursday & Sunday, Shows, so get the bets up as early as possible this week please guys.

[Doobs]

grats fred and draw backers.

Did u get the full £50 free on the no goal scorer market marky?

Sadly not - Restricted to £10 @ 10/1. Plus £50 @ 12/5 on the Draw.

Happy days.

The limits on the draw would have been much bigger than first goalscorer in running.

You should have have the no goalscorer bet pre match and draw bet in running.

Aftermining I know - but worth remembering for next time they do this great offer.

He didn't know he was going to be restricted until the match started.  

The no goal scorer bet was a margin below the best Betfair price (I remember looking at the correct score/first goalscorer prices and none looked attractive to me).   So I think he loses a tenner or so vs Betfair pre match then could still get restricted to a tenner max win in play.  

I think the best strategy from now on for Tikay may well ve the classic donkey free bet strategy.  ie just double up on the draw or similar.

He's been restricted by bet365 since about week 3 of the thread!

yeah, but we don't know when and where it applies.  Obviously, we have a much better idea now we have seen what happened tonight.

But the draw pre match is still better than the no scorer pre match though.

It wasn't better to have the draw bet pre match if you can't use the whole of the free £50 free bet in running!

I haven't been keeping up with thread as much as I used to - but "yeah, but we don't know when and where it applies" just doesn't make sense, virtually all bookies don't differentiate between sports. Once you are restricted - you are restricted.

As I said in the earlier post, I think Tony is on 1% of the normal stake as his maximum bet.

If he cares to look now, I reckon his maximum on Man City to beat Hull next weekend will be £600.

This will increase on gameday.

The draw was better pre because the bet365 price was within a whisker of Betfair, the nil goal scorer wasn't.  So one he loses a couple of quid pre, one loses more than a tenner.  Of couse knowing it ended 0-0 makes a difference to this reasoning.

If he gets resticted on the draw in game because he has bet it pre, he should switch to either Man U win or Chelsea win.  

Still, I thought we knew (now we definitely know anyway) that he wouldn't be able to get his whole £50 free bet on first goalscorer in running.

Sure we would have lost a tenner on betting first goalscorer prematch - but we lost £40 of our free bet by not taking them up on the entire extent of the offer.

We are both agreed tonight's strategy was not the best.  But your new strategy isn't the best either, this is better.  

I think the best strategy from now on for Tikay may well ve the classic donkey free bet strategy.  ie just double up on the draw or similar.

[a.sparrow]

grats fred and draw backers.

Did u get the full £50 free on the no goal scorer market marky?

I did thankfully mate. I was planning to do my normal donkey double, however,  I felt obliged to punt after the free bet explanation was bumped this morning.

I did lay the draw for a monkey at 1.1 though


Congrats everyone who had it off!

Nice one, i only asked because i've followed your draw double bets from the other forum we use for awhile and you've come close a couple of times with no cigar, nice to get the payout this time! Wish i'd have followed the no goal scorer route too, i went the donkey route this time lol.

[The Camel]

grats fred and draw backers.

Did u get the full £50 free on the no goal scorer market marky?

Sadly not - Restricted to £10 @ 10/1. Plus £50 @ 12/5 on the Draw.

Happy days.

The limits on the draw would have been much bigger than first goalscorer in running.

You should have have the no goalscorer bet pre match and draw bet in running.

Aftermining I know - but worth remembering for next time they do this great offer.

He didn't know he was going to be restricted until the match started.  

The no goal scorer bet was a margin below the best Betfair price (I remember looking at the correct score/first goalscorer prices and none looked attractive to me).   So I think he loses a tenner or so vs Betfair pre match then could still get restricted to a tenner max win in play.  

I think the best strategy from now on for Tikay may well ve the classic donkey free bet strategy.  ie just double up on the draw or similar.

He's been restricted by bet365 since about week 3 of the thread!

yeah, but we don't know when and where it applies.  Obviously, we have a much better idea now we have seen what happened tonight.

But the draw pre match is still better than the no scorer pre match though.

It wasn't better to have the draw bet pre match if you can't use the whole of the free £50 free bet in running!

I haven't been keeping up with thread as much as I used to - but "yeah, but we don't know when and where it applies" just doesn't make sense, virtually all bookies don't differentiate between sports. Once you are restricted - you are restricted.

As I said in the earlier post, I think Tony is on 1% of the normal stake as his maximum bet.

If he cares to look now, I reckon his maximum on Man City to beat Hull next weekend will be £600.

This will increase on gameday.

The draw was better pre because the bet365 price was within a whisker of Betfair, the nil goal scorer wasn't.  So one he loses a couple of quid pre, one loses more than a tenner.  Of couse knowing it ended 0-0 makes a difference to this reasoning.

If he gets resticted on the draw in game because he has bet it pre, he should switch to either Man U win or Chelsea win.  

Still, I thought we knew (now we definitely know anyway) that he wouldn't be able to get his whole £50 free bet on first goalscorer in running.

Sure we would have lost a tenner on betting first goalscorer prematch - but we lost £40 of our free bet by not taking them up on the entire extent of the offer.

We are both agreed tonight's strategy was not the best.  But your new strategy isn't the best either, this is better.  

I think the best strategy from now on for Tikay may well ve the classic donkey free bet strategy.  ie just double up on the draw or similar.

Isn't my new strategy exactly the same as that one?

(Except possibly I'm saying just bet the one he fancies rather than the closest match to Betfair)

[Tal]

I started this whole thing off by recommending United and Chelsea and bugger me am I regretting it!

Here's tomorrow's back page:

Click to see full-size image.

[The Camel]

My mug punter strategy is a tiny ev mistake. (But it's fun to be a mug punter sometimes. I've seen the shrewdest man I know playing roulette once!)

Betting only 20% of a £50 free bet is a huge ev error though.