Tips for Tikay

[tikay]

Actually doubt Tony could have had £50 on no goal scorer pre match come to think of it.

Best off just being a mug punter when this offer comes around and just picking the side he fancies to win and having £50 on it twice.

Might be giving up a few pennies in ev but he can't possibly fail to be having value and it's fun.

Pretty sure I can pull that one off.

[tikay]

Bartoli hints at return to the game already seemingly, must have been retired about 2 weeks. Did anyone get on at the fancy prices that were mentioned?

http://www1.skysports.com/tennis/us-open/story/29393/8890178

Not Fred, I tried but missed it. Work again.....

Tremendous spot, that.

[The Camel]

Bartoli hints at return to the game already seemingly, must have been retired about 2 weeks. Did anyone get on at the fancy prices that were mentioned?

http://www1.skysports.com/tennis/us-open/story/29393/8890178

Not Fred, I tried but missed it. Work again.....

Tremendous spot, that.

It was one of those rare spots where it's our opinion v an odds compilers opinion (or even better a Ladbrokes PR person's opinion)

No Betfair for them to check up what the right price is.

It was always thus pre Betfair.

Salad days.

[tikay]

grats fred and draw backers.

Did u get the full £50 free on the no goal scorer market marky?

Sadly not - Restricted to £10 @ 10/1. Plus £50 @ 12/5 on the Draw.

Happy days.

The limits on the draw would have been much bigger than first goalscorer in running.

You should have have the no goalscorer bet pre match and draw bet in running.

Aftermining I know - but worth remembering for next time they do this great offer.

He didn't know he was going to be restricted until the match started. 

The no goal scorer bet was a margin below the best Betfair price (I remember looking at the correct score/first goalscorer prices and none looked attractive to me).   So I think he loses a tenner or so vs Betfair pre match then could still get restricted to a tenner max win in play. 

I think the best strategy from now on for Tikay may well ve the classic donkey free bet strategy.  ie just double up on the draw or similar.

donkey bets are good http://www.betpal.com/monday-night-football-betting-preview-manchester-untied-v-chelsea

Apologies if it looks like aftertiming, but nn case anyone missed this, Tighty's article started & finished like this......


".....Recommendation
 
Stage One Back the draw at 12-5 Bet365
 
Stage Two In Play back the draw for the same stake 12-5 Bet365......"

It really is worth having a gander at the betpal stuff that Tighty & Scotty write, they must be on a cracking ROI.

[Marky147]

grats fred and draw backers.

Did u get the full £50 free on the no goal scorer market marky?

I did thankfully mate. I was planning to do my normal donkey double, however,  I felt obliged to punt after the free bet explanation was bumped this morning.

I did lay the draw for a monkey at 1.1 though


Congrats everyone who had it off!

Nice one, i only asked because i've followed your draw double bets from the other forum we use for awhile and you've come close a couple of times with no cigar, nice to get the payout this time! Wish i'd have followed the no goal scorer route too, i went the donkey route this time lol.

Yeah, I've gotten it up the wrongun a few times in injury time, so nice to finally get one through

[The Camel]

I'll say this for sure.

It's bloody hard to get Doobs to admit he was mistaken!

Let's pretend Tony fancied Chelsea to win tonight:

He had £50 at 2/1 (3.5 on Betfair) pre match and £50 in running at 2/1.

Although both would have been "bad bets" he would have stumbled into taking value because he was effectively getting £50 @ 4/1 as the second £50 is refunded if Chelsea fail to win.

By taking £50 on the draw at 12/5 (Betfair price 3.5) he was taking a -ev position not compensated by getting the full £50 free bet on. He probably got £9 of it's value making the whole deal +ev by about a fiver whereas mine is +ev by about a pony.

[The Camel]

All those calculations are pointless if you aren't restricted btw.

Doobs's method much better if you free to bet as much as you like.

[TheDazzler]

I'm kinda glad it didn't come in as I might be accused of aftertiming but I think Fred was remiss not to back the recommendation of Schurrle FGS @ 18/1.
If you saw Hull come to Old Trafford playing 1 man up front and he was 18/1 to score first, I couldn't put you off backing him. And this was Chelsea!

As the game played out, Schurrle hardly had a sniff but we didn't know the game would play out like that. The point was he was mispriced. He was priced as a midfielder and he was a lone striker.
I also put up Rooney @ 10/1 and that's fine to rebuff it, it's a judgement call. But the Schurrle bet imo should have been taken. As I mentioned, I think it should have been a big bet (~£100) but for not it not to be taken for even £10?
I'm not annoyed or anything or taking it personally and I know Tikay was busy and he has a tough job deciding which bets to do or not. I'm just saying I think we missed a lot of value there.
If anyone disagrees, I'd be interested in hearing why.

Dazzy,

It had nothing to do with the assessed value or ANYTHING to do with the game, but you are due an explanation as we follow you blind on most of your stuff, as you know.

It was just time, my head was absolutely spinning.

For the last 4 evenings, ending this evening, next door have held an Online Festival, a sort of mini-mini WCOOP sorta thing. I have to give that priority, it's my job.

Last night (Sunday), some wheels seriously fell off, & I was inundated with stress & complaints whilst at the same time, playing two of the Tourneys, ringing the Office, firefighting, da de da. I alsio had company at home.

This evening I had to play two more of the Festival Tourneys, PLUS a special "Premier League" Promotional Freroll, where whoever busted me got £100. I HAVE to take that seriously, a) because it is right & proper, & b) because if I exit in a bad play, the haters would be all over me like a rash, accusing me of dumping off to a mate or whatever.

My first Tourney tonight began at 7.30, exactly when Fred exploded with various bet suggestions for the game, there must have been 10 or more. I must be getting past it, but truly, my head was all over the place trying to cope with everything at once, especially with poker Tables popping up all the time. (It is 6 Max, so not much respite). I had to puff the Tourneys & Premiership Freeroll on the Forum next door, too. Think I made over 30 Posts there this afternoon & evening.   

I half-watched the match kind of dreading your man scoring because I genuinely KNEW it was a great spot. (We were not to know the tactics, of course).

I agree with you totally, as to both Rooney & Schurrle, they were no-brainers, but I had just reached my plate-spinning limit at the time. My job - for so long as I have it - must take priority.

While we are on the subject, I'll be working 3 more nights this week, minimum, tomorow an evening Meet at Head Office in Leeds, Thursday & Sunday, Shows, so get the bets up as early as possible this week please guys.

Lol, I'm not due an explanation, it's your thread, your money. I'm not an Elder, don't have auto bet status, nor should I.
I understand you were very busy and I promise I'm not taking it personally.
I don't expect you to bet my stuff blind. I expect you to bet it when it gets support from Elders. It didn't get any mention from Elders, and there were a few about, and that's what surprised me as it's a clear standout, high margin value bet imo.
I wasn't asking for an explanation from you Tikay, rather from the Elders!

[tikay]

I'm kinda glad it didn't come in as I might be accused of aftertiming but I think Fred was remiss not to back the recommendation of Schurrle FGS @ 18/1.
If you saw Hull come to Old Trafford playing 1 man up front and he was 18/1 to score first, I couldn't put you off backing him. And this was Chelsea!

As the game played out, Schurrle hardly had a sniff but we didn't know the game would play out like that. The point was he was mispriced. He was priced as a midfielder and he was a lone striker.
I also put up Rooney @ 10/1 and that's fine to rebuff it, it's a judgement call. But the Schurrle bet imo should have been taken. As I mentioned, I think it should have been a big bet (~£100) but for not it not to be taken for even £10?
I'm not annoyed or anything or taking it personally and I know Tikay was busy and he has a tough job deciding which bets to do or not. I'm just saying I think we missed a lot of value there.
If anyone disagrees, I'd be interested in hearing why.

Dazzy,

It had nothing to do with the assessed value or ANYTHING to do with the game, but you are due an explanation as we follow you blind on most of your stuff, as you know.

It was just time, my head was absolutely spinning.

For the last 4 evenings, ending this evening, next door have held an Online Festival, a sort of mini-mini WCOOP sorta thing. I have to give that priority, it's my job.

Last night (Sunday), some wheels seriously fell off, & I was inundated with stress & complaints whilst at the same time, playing two of the Tourneys, ringing the Office, firefighting, da de da. I alsio had company at home.

This evening I had to play two more of the Festival Tourneys, PLUS a special "Premier League" Promotional Freroll, where whoever busted me got £100. I HAVE to take that seriously, a) because it is right & proper, & b) because if I exit in a bad play, the haters would be all over me like a rash, accusing me of dumping off to a mate or whatever.

My first Tourney tonight began at 7.30, exactly when Fred exploded with various bet suggestions for the game, there must have been 10 or more. I must be getting past it, but truly, my head was all over the place trying to cope with everything at once, especially with poker Tables popping up all the time. (It is 6 Max, so not much respite). I had to puff the Tourneys & Premiership Freeroll on the Forum next door, too. Think I made over 30 Posts there this afternoon & evening.   

I half-watched the match kind of dreading your man scoring because I genuinely KNEW it was a great spot. (We were not to know the tactics, of course).

I agree with you totally, as to both Rooney & Schurrle, they were no-brainers, but I had just reached my plate-spinning limit at the time. My job - for so long as I have it - must take priority.

While we are on the subject, I'll be working 3 more nights this week, minimum, tomorow an evening Meet at Head Office in Leeds, Thursday & Sunday, Shows, so get the bets up as early as possible this week please guys.

Lol, I'm not due an explanation, it's your thread, your money. I'm not an Elder, don't have auto bet status, nor should I.
I understand you were very busy and I promise I'm not taking it personally.
I don't expect you to bet my stuff blind. I expect you to bet it when it gets support from Elders. It didn't get any mention from Elders, and there were a few about, and that's what surprised me as it's a clear standout, high margin value bet imo.
I wasn't asking for an explanation from you Tikay, rather from the Elders!

Ahh, I just ignore them, took my fairy wheels off & everything. 

Anyway, they are busy debating some Ev thing, & taking lucky guesses at my Bet365 Limits. 

[The Camel]

I'm kinda glad it didn't come in as I might be accused of aftertiming but I think Fred was remiss not to back the recommendation of Schurrle FGS @ 18/1.
If you saw Hull come to Old Trafford playing 1 man up front and he was 18/1 to score first, I couldn't put you off backing him. And this was Chelsea!

As the game played out, Schurrle hardly had a sniff but we didn't know the game would play out like that. The point was he was mispriced. He was priced as a midfielder and he was a lone striker.
I also put up Rooney @ 10/1 and that's fine to rebuff it, it's a judgement call. But the Schurrle bet imo should have been taken. As I mentioned, I think it should have been a big bet (~£100) but for not it not to be taken for even £10?
I'm not annoyed or anything or taking it personally and I know Tikay was busy and he has a tough job deciding which bets to do or not. I'm just saying I think we missed a lot of value there.
If anyone disagrees, I'd be interested in hearing why.

Dazzy,

It had nothing to do with the assessed value or ANYTHING to do with the game, but you are due an explanation as we follow you blind on most of your stuff, as you know.

It was just time, my head was absolutely spinning.

For the last 4 evenings, ending this evening, next door have held an Online Festival, a sort of mini-mini WCOOP sorta thing. I have to give that priority, it's my job.

Last night (Sunday), some wheels seriously fell off, & I was inundated with stress & complaints whilst at the same time, playing two of the Tourneys, ringing the Office, firefighting, da de da. I alsio had company at home.

This evening I had to play two more of the Festival Tourneys, PLUS a special "Premier League" Promotional Freroll, where whoever busted me got £100. I HAVE to take that seriously, a) because it is right & proper, & b) because if I exit in a bad play, the haters would be all over me like a rash, accusing me of dumping off to a mate or whatever.

My first Tourney tonight began at 7.30, exactly when Fred exploded with various bet suggestions for the game, there must have been 10 or more. I must be getting past it, but truly, my head was all over the place trying to cope with everything at once, especially with poker Tables popping up all the time. (It is 6 Max, so not much respite). I had to puff the Tourneys & Premiership Freeroll on the Forum next door, too. Think I made over 30 Posts there this afternoon & evening.   

I half-watched the match kind of dreading your man scoring because I genuinely KNEW it was a great spot. (We were not to know the tactics, of course).

I agree with you totally, as to both Rooney & Schurrle, they were no-brainers, but I had just reached my plate-spinning limit at the time. My job - for so long as I have it - must take priority.

While we are on the subject, I'll be working 3 more nights this week, minimum, tomorow an evening Meet at Head Office in Leeds, Thursday & Sunday, Shows, so get the bets up as early as possible this week please guys.

Lol, I'm not due an explanation, it's your thread, your money. I'm not an Elder, don't have auto bet status, nor should I.
I understand you were very busy and I promise I'm not taking it personally.
I don't expect you to bet my stuff blind. I expect you to bet it when it gets support from Elders. It didn't get any mention from Elders, and there were a few about, and that's what surprised me as it's a clear standout, high margin value bet imo.
I wasn't asking for an explanation from you Tikay, rather from the Elders!

Ahh, I just ignore them, took my fairy wheels off & everything. 

Anyway, they are busy debating some Ev thing, & taking lucky guesses at my Bet365 Limits. 

Sure I could have made some cash predicting your limits.

You would have thought I was Blondepoker's answer to Darren Brown..

[Tal]

Camel, you do surprise me. Never had you down as a Derren fan.

[Tal]

Actually, given that you call him Darren, maybe I've misunderstood

[The Camel]

Camel, you do surprise me. Never had you down as a Derren fan.

I don't surprise you I'm afraid.

I detest him.

[Tal]

Camel, you do surprise me. Never had you down as a Derren fan.

I don't surprise you I'm afraid.

I detest him.

Lol

[Doobs]

grats fred and draw backers.

Did u get the full £50 free on the no goal scorer market marky?

Sadly not - Restricted to £10 @ 10/1. Plus £50 @ 12/5 on the Draw.

Happy days.

The limits on the draw would have been much bigger than first goalscorer in running.

You should have have the no goalscorer bet pre match and draw bet in running.

Aftermining I know - but worth remembering for next time they do this great offer.

He didn't know he was going to be restricted until the match started.  

The no goal scorer bet was a margin below the best Betfair price (I remember looking at the correct score/first goalscorer prices and none looked attractive to me).   So I think he loses a tenner or so vs Betfair pre match then could still get restricted to a tenner max win in play.  

I think the best strategy from now on for Tikay may well ve the classic donkey free bet strategy.  ie just double up on the draw or similar.

10 minutes after Camel's first post, I say we should do something different in future, later I say what happened tonight wasn't ideal. 

Nowhere have I said we didn't make a mistake tonight, just because I didn't say the exact words "we made a mistake here", doesn't mean I didn't think we made one.  We clearly made a mistake.  We will learn by doing something different next time with thread bets.  If I'd realised the corners bet was going to be so badly restricted, I'd have said do something else with the free bet, but the first bet was clearly fine.

Now can we get on with celebrating the £50 we had on the draw at 12/5 and the hundo Tikay made on the no goalscorer bet.

I know we could have made better bets, but +£220 isn't so bad.

 Cheers.