Tips for Tikay

[Nico29]

England v Moldova on Friday. Should be routine. Therefore I suggest a max bet on England to win to nil @ 9/20.

Priced up much smaller everywhere else and yes it's odds on, but I think it's pinching money personally. We beat them 5-0 away last time (http://www.fifa.com/worldcup/preliminaries/europe/matches/round=258374/match=300182319/report.html).

Also would suggest two £5 win singles on 7-0 and 8-0 wins which are 50's and 125 with Sporting Bet, not much value on any other scores.

Not sure what max bet is, but suggest on England to win to nil and the two £5 singles.

Good Luck.

Routine it might be, but not really sure where the concept of value is being applied here.

Joe Hart hasn't been in the best of form as of late and naming our first choice centre half pairing is a bit of a lottery at the moment.

As for the party piece scores, I know it's your forte mate and wd with that 80-1 shot btw, but where is the logic here?

Are we betting just because the prices are ool or because we believe we'll hit a cricket score and the market doesn't suspect this?

Prefer them out of the two bets, but not sure it's anything but pure gambling at big prices.

Personally my line on such a game as ever will be on the ew fgs.

We get about 11-10 on Sturridge scoring at anytime, which is a general 4-6 shot, by backing him ew at 10-3 with the win part pretty neutral.

May back Walcott in this market too and one or two others.

[Chompy]

Dermot brings them over if he thinks they're good enough Doobs.

He's won a Guineas with Refuse To Bend and had one at a single-figure price in this season's 1,000. Don't think that would put me off.

The 2,000 Guineas is still considred the best Derby trial, although there's always the chance he'll take the Derrinstown route. That's part of the gamble though.

[scotty2hatty]

Nico29 alerted me to a PP deal on tonight's dogs - bet a tenner, get a tenner. Worth a nibble.

[aaron1867]

England v Moldova on Friday. Should be routine. Therefore I suggest a max bet on England to win to nil @ 9/20.

Priced up much smaller everywhere else and yes it's odds on, but I think it's pinching money personally. We beat them 5-0 away last time (http://www.fifa.com/worldcup/preliminaries/europe/matches/round=258374/match=300182319/report.html).

Also would suggest two £5 win singles on 7-0 and 8-0 wins which are 50's and 125 with Sporting Bet, not much value on any other scores.

Not sure what max bet is, but suggest on England to win to nil and the two £5 singles.

Good Luck.

Routine it might be, but not really sure where the concept of value is being applied here.

Joe Hart hasn't been in the best of form as of late and naming our first choice centre half pairing is a bit of a lottery at the moment.

As for the party piece scores, I know it's your forte mate and wd with that 80-1 shot btw, but where is the logic here?

Are we betting just because the prices are ool or because we believe we'll hit a cricket score and the market doesn't suspect this?

Prefer them out of the two bets, but not sure it's anything but pure gambling at big prices.

Personally my line on such a game as ever will be on the ew fgs.

We get about 11-10 on Sturridge scoring at anytime, which is a general 4-6 shot, by backing him ew at 10-3 with the win part pretty neutral.

May back Walcott in this market too and one or two others.

The market is generally a lot smaller, 4/11 stuff and some bookies show up at 2/9 too. I think there is somewhat value in the price on offer with Ladbrokes. I only put this up because I can't see how Moldova are going to score regardless of how good or bad Hart has been, are they going to even get a shot on target or even a corner? I think they will be limited to very little if any at all.

Also generally putting this bet up as I think we had a similar bet a few months ago to win to nil, which actually was a loser and I remember it being shorter if I remember correctly, hence why I posted this. This isn't an "I Fancy" bet, but I do however fancy it, but I think we have a bit of "odds on value"

We beat them 5-0 too away, which factors in all the bets I suggested and the correct scores have nothing to do with the earlier bet, but again the prices look good & I should imagine we should be looking at beating the earlier win, although a win is just what we want.

Tell me if I am nuts, but I have a few quid on the to win to nil, because the price is a lot better & I can't see Moldova scoring.

[Tal]

England v Moldova on Friday. Should be routine. Therefore I suggest a max bet on England to win to nil @ 9/20.

Priced up much smaller everywhere else and yes it's odds on, but I think it's pinching money personally. We beat them 5-0 away last time (http://www.fifa.com/worldcup/preliminaries/europe/matches/round=258374/match=300182319/report.html).

Also would suggest two £5 win singles on 7-0 and 8-0 wins which are 50's and 125 with Sporting Bet, not much value on any other scores.

Not sure what max bet is, but suggest on England to win to nil and the two £5 singles.

Good Luck.

Hi Aaron. Help me out: explain the emboldened bit above.

England should win comfortably against a really poor side. They have got a few games under their belts a few weeks into the season now so should be up to match fitness. We need to win and the defenders are all competing for places at the moment, so we can expect a performance. Should score plenty. Shouldn't concede. Get all of that, yep.

The bookies agree with you. They say there is a 7 in 10 chance England will do exactly as you say. For it to be worth betting at all, we need to be able to conclude that the odds are really at least 8 in 10. To justify a BIG bet, we need to be able to conclude the price is way out of line. Is this a 1/6 shot? Not for me.

I'm not having a go, because the point is I use this thread to learn about the logic of betting well and the reasons used by people to come to better conclusions than the odds compilers about the probability of X or Y happening. If you can persuasively explain why this price is wrong, I reckon plenty of people watching will (if they haven't already) be getting on as instructed. I just can't join them yet.

The bet size should be linked to how out of line the price is (Dubai pops up every now and then, mentions Kelly, suggests a monster number and leaves to much merriment as Tikay phones his bank manager), rather than how much we stand to win from a good result. I can't correlate a fiver on a score with £150 on a 1/2 shot as bet sizes this way. Again, yet. I am as guilty of this as anyone, but I see Bad Beat tip a 25/1 shot and recommending £50 on it and go "that's mental", putting a fiver on it instead, as I'm only getting £125 every blue moon.

But it's stuff like this that balances the spreadsheets, so give me some guidance and I'll follow you to the end of the Earth, sir.

[Tal]

Aaron, that answer was way better than the post I quoted: bookies are pricing it up differently and you've found a big price.

[the sicilian]

is the england game one of the infamous dubai ew scorer bets?

[Nico29]

Aaron I apologise, I didn't check oddschecker for once and you are right indeed, that ladbrokes price is way ool.

Personally think that the 2/9 on offer is an absolute disgrace of a price, the general 4-11 seems about right.

Would much rather lay the 2/9 on england to win to nil, but all things considered 9/20 seems a far price and a touch of value*


*Have just backed it even!

[Ironside]

England v Moldova on Friday. Should be routine. Therefore I suggest a max bet on England to win to nil @ 9/20.

Priced up much smaller everywhere else and yes it's odds on, but I think it's pinching money personally. We beat them 5-0 away last time (http://www.fifa.com/worldcup/preliminaries/europe/matches/round=258374/match=300182319/report.html).

Also would suggest two £5 win singles on 7-0 and 8-0 wins which are 50's and 125 with Sporting Bet, not much value on any other scores.

Not sure what max bet is, but suggest on England to win to nil and the two £5 singles.

Good Luck.

really dont like the bet to nil after the last performance

At home to Scotland (50th in world rankings) in a meaningless friendly doesn't really show that much. We are at home to team we already beat 5-0 away who are ranked 123 in the rankings, the stats will probably show that they didn't have a chance in the game if I can remember correctly.

I'm sure it will be up for debate, no doubt!

i am not a big fan of rankings but last time scotland played moldova we drew 1-1 there and won 2-0 at home and we had a much better team then
i said before the game i knew we were very likely going too lose too england but would be delighted with a goal we actually got 2
england have alot too work on defensively and will likely be resting a few key players for the more important game

1.45 just doesnt seem value too me for value in correct scores presuming betfair is used for the correct odds only score that is
offering value is 6-0 with a few firms and sky bet seem way out of line with there 5-1 they are offering 34.0 with most other firms between 23.0 and 26.0

[aaron1867]

Tal,

I am just perhaps going by the prices quoted by bookie and the market prices set now. Before I opened that page I expected the shortest to be around 1/3, it generally averages around the prices, but 9/20 seems to be a very good price when you look at the prices on offer now....

365 - 4/11

Sky - 4/11

PaddyPawer - 4/11

Winner - 4/11

Coral - 2/7

Tote - 1/4

Hills - 2/9

Betfair - 1/5

That is perhaps not explaining it such as you want, butconsidering a few stats and the local prices, think we (might just be me ) are onto some decent odds on value.

[aaron1867]

England v Moldova on Friday. Should be routine. Therefore I suggest a max bet on England to win to nil @ 9/20.

Priced up much smaller everywhere else and yes it's odds on, but I think it's pinching money personally. We beat them 5-0 away last time (http://www.fifa.com/worldcup/preliminaries/europe/matches/round=258374/match=300182319/report.html).

Also would suggest two £5 win singles on 7-0 and 8-0 wins which are 50's and 125 with Sporting Bet, not much value on any other scores.

Not sure what max bet is, but suggest on England to win to nil and the two £5 singles.

Good Luck.

really dont like the bet to nil after the last performance

At home to Scotland (50th in world rankings) in a meaningless friendly doesn't really show that much. We are at home to team we already beat 5-0 away who are ranked 123 in the rankings, the stats will probably show that they didn't have a chance in the game if I can remember correctly.

I'm sure it will be up for debate, no doubt!

i am not a big fan of rankings but last time scotland played moldova we drew 1-1 there and won 2-0 at home and we had a much better team then
i said before the game i knew we were very likely going too lose too england but would be delighted with a goal we actually got 2
england have alot too work on defensively and will likely be resting a few key players for the more important game

It is hard to get any information from a friendly international or at club level, so it's always to be hard to look at the last game and think it wasn't a good performance and it wasn't, but not only was it a friendly, but it was against Scotland, so even more difficult. I agree with you about the rankings, it wasn't long ago England was up there as 4th/5th, so shows how out of line the rankings can be.

I can't actually see us resting that many seniors either, can't afford to let our guard down whether it's Spain or San Marino...

[Marky147]

Radiator beat rubbish racing up the massively favoured stands' rail at Lingfield. Wouldn't be going nuts over her tbh.

Conversely, I've been shopping round for prices for the most impressive 2yo I've seen this season, Free Eagle, winning the 2,000 Guineas and Derby next year.

He's currently 8/1 fav for the Derby and around 14/1 for the Guineas. If he wins the Guineas, he'll be very very short for Epsom.

Boyle's came up with 25/1, which is tight, but Ladbrokes offered 40/1, which is oi oi!

Free Eagle is up with everyone bar Laddies now at a best price of 16s

[Nico29]

Radiator beat rubbish racing up the massively favoured stands' rail at Lingfield. Wouldn't be going nuts over her tbh.

Conversely, I've been shopping round for prices for the most impressive 2yo I've seen this season, Free Eagle, winning the 2,000 Guineas and Derby next year.

He's currently 8/1 fav for the Derby and around 14/1 for the Guineas. If he wins the Guineas, he'll be very very short for Epsom.

Boyle's came up with 25/1, which is tight, but Ladbrokes offered 40/1, which is oi oi!

Free Eagle is up with everyone bar Laddies now at a best price of 16s

Chomps said that it was indeed actually about 14's for the Guineas mate.

The bet he likes is on the 'related' double which you have to request a special price from them for.

He was quoted 40's by sadoldblokes but as he said that may have gone by now.

[Marky147]

Radiator beat rubbish racing up the massively favoured stands' rail at Lingfield. Wouldn't be going nuts over her tbh.

Conversely, I've been shopping round for prices for the most impressive 2yo I've seen this season, Free Eagle, winning the 2,000 Guineas and Derby next year.

He's currently 8/1 fav for the Derby and around 14/1 for the Guineas. If he wins the Guineas, he'll be very very short for Epsom.

Boyle's came up with 25/1, which is tight, but Ladbrokes offered 40/1, which is oi oi!

Free Eagle is up with everyone bar Laddies now at a best price of 16s

Chomps said that it was indeed actually about 14's for the Guineas mate.

The bet he likes is on the 'related' double which you have to request a special price from them for.

He was quoted 40's by sadoldblokes but as he said that may have gone by now.

Haha, reading comprehension fail ftw.

Cheers mate.

[Jamier-Host]

Doubt I'll bet the game but be more likely to go for a laboured 1-0/2-0 than a thrashing.