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Author Topic: Tips for Tikay  (Read 16400793 times)
Nico29
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« Reply #52530 on: September 05, 2013, 09:42:25 PM »

I really don't do recommends as I have history for flouncing when re-buffed, bit like chomps. Smiley

However, I really do think that the 2-1 for Lampard to score anytime is way too big and ool with most of the market, it's as short as 8-11 with hills-lol.

This is available with Tote and and Baldfred, doubt it will be around for long though, the machine has even come into line.

Apparently he's def starting, if he was def taking the pens-i'd say it's highly likely he still will-it would be close to a max for me.

My logic is this:

Very few books still do ew fgs, it's not a great bet for them, esp in a game like this.

Lampard is a fairly priced 6/1 fgs, at 1/3 of the odds the place part plays 2-1.

Normally if we just wanted to back the place we'd get much worse than 2-1 though, I make it 6/4 max.

Take Lambert for example. He's 4-1 to score first with 365, so we get just shy of 11/8 on the anytime/place part.

If we wanted to back this stand alone we'd have to take 5/6-hills are 1/3-again lol.


Anyway, enough waffling, recommend £50 on Lampard to score anytime@2-1 (Tote/Betfred) v Moldova.


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Nico29
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« Reply #52531 on: September 05, 2013, 09:44:59 PM »

If someone could get on with Ladbrokes or Hills for me I'd appreciate it.

Can prob do ladbrokes for ya.
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TightEnd
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« Reply #52532 on: September 05, 2013, 09:46:59 PM »

I really don't do recommends as I have history for flouncing when re-buffed, bit like chomps. Smiley

However, I really do think that the 2-1 for Lampard to score anytime is way too big and ool with most of the market, it's as short as 8-11 with hills-lol.

This is available with Tote and and Baldfred, doubt it will be around for long though, the machine has even come into line.

Apparently he's def starting, if he was def taking the pens-i'd say it's highly likely he still will-it would be close to a max for me.

My logic is this:

Very few books still do ew fgs, it's not a great bet for them, esp in a game like this.

Lampard is a fairly priced 6/1 fgs, at 1/3 of the odds the place part plays 2-1.

Normally if we just wanted to back the place we'd get much worse than 2-1 though, I make it 6/4 max.

Take Lambert for example. He's 4-1 to score first with 365, so we get just shy of 11/8 on the anytime/place part.

If we wanted to back this stand alone we'd have to take 5/6-hills are 1/3-again lol.


Anyway, enough waffling, recommend £50 on Lampard to score anytime@2-1 (Tote/Betfred) v Moldova.




Definitely think this should be in the Anytime portfolio (perm any of Lambert, Welbeck, Walcott alongside it)

No reason why he wouldn't be on pens, he is the current penalty taker, for the added insurance
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« Reply #52533 on: September 05, 2013, 09:47:54 PM »

If someone could get on with Ladbrokes or Hills for me I'd appreciate it.

Can prob do ladbrokes for ya.

£100 on Garswood at 8/1 and £20 on LGB at 7/1 please Dom. PM me your bank deets if you get on.
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« Reply #52534 on: September 05, 2013, 09:52:14 PM »

One of the great performances this from Wawrinka too 6-4 6-3 5-2 and serving for it

Unplayable forehands down the line

11/4 pre-match half tipped by Hector....
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Nico29
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« Reply #52535 on: September 05, 2013, 09:52:36 PM »

If someone could get on with Ladbrokes or Hills for me I'd appreciate it.

Can prob do ladbrokes for ya.

£100 on Garswood at 8/1 and £20 on LGB at 7/1 please Dom. PM me your bank deets if you get on.

Done the £20@7/1.

Pm'd you.
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hector62
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« Reply #52536 on: September 05, 2013, 09:53:36 PM »

Wigan   6  Leeds  20         F/T



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Nico29
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« Reply #52537 on: September 05, 2013, 09:54:22 PM »

I really don't do recommends as I have history for flouncing when re-buffed, bit like chomps. Smiley

However, I really do think that the 2-1 for Lampard to score anytime is way too big and ool with most of the market, it's as short as 8-11 with hills-lol.

This is available with Tote and and Baldfred, doubt it will be around for long though, the machine has even come into line.

Apparently he's def starting, if he was def taking the pens-i'd say it's highly likely he still will-it would be close to a max for me.

My logic is this:

Very few books still do ew fgs, it's not a great bet for them, esp in a game like this.

Lampard is a fairly priced 6/1 fgs, at 1/3 of the odds the place part plays 2-1.

Normally if we just wanted to back the place we'd get much worse than 2-1 though, I make it 6/4 max.

Take Lambert for example. He's 4-1 to score first with 365, so we get just shy of 11/8 on the anytime/place part.

If we wanted to back this stand alone we'd have to take 5/6-hills are 1/3-again lol.


Anyway, enough waffling, recommend £50 on Lampard to score anytime@2-1 (Tote/Betfred) v Moldova.




Definitely think this should be in the Anytime portfolio (perm any of Lambert, Welbeck, Walcott alongside it)

No reason why he wouldn't be on pens, he is the current penalty taker, for the added insurance

Yeah unforts he's the only one you can get value stand alone on anytime, the other's are good ew bets.

I just wondered if Lambert being the abs nuts at pens could sway a change, but yeah hopefully not.
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« Reply #52538 on: September 05, 2013, 10:02:30 PM »

you are a boss hector!

Horse enthusiasts, would you advice straight win bets on Garswood and GLB, or would each way at say 8/1 on Garswood with 1/4 odds available be a good bet for 2/1 the place?
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« Reply #52539 on: September 05, 2013, 10:02:38 PM »

Wigan   6  Leeds  20         F/T





Wiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiii. Smiley
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« Reply #52540 on: September 05, 2013, 10:09:10 PM »

I really don't do recommends as I have history for flouncing when re-buffed, bit like chomps. Smiley

However, I really do think that the 2-1 for Lampard to score anytime is way too big and ool with most of the market, it's as short as 8-11 with hills-lol.

This is available with Tote and and Baldfred, doubt it will be around for long though, the machine has even come into line.

Apparently he's def starting, if he was def taking the pens-i'd say it's highly likely he still will-it would be close to a max for me.

My logic is this:

Very few books still do ew fgs, it's not a great bet for them, esp in a game like this.

Lampard is a fairly priced 6/1 fgs, at 1/3 of the odds the place part plays 2-1.

Normally if we just wanted to back the place we'd get much worse than 2-1 though, I make it 6/4 max.

Take Lambert for example. He's 4-1 to score first with 365, so we get just shy of 11/8 on the anytime/place part.

If we wanted to back this stand alone we'd have to take 5/6-hills are 1/3-again lol.


Anyway, enough waffling, recommend £50 on Lampard to score anytime@2-1 (Tote/Betfred) v Moldova.


I can't see any possible way this is bigger than a 6/4 shot to be honest.  Think we should have more on.  On a 3k bank i would suggest 120.
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Nico29
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« Reply #52541 on: September 05, 2013, 10:10:12 PM »

I really don't do recommends as I have history for flouncing when re-buffed, bit like chomps. Smiley

However, I really do think that the 2-1 for Lampard to score anytime is way too big and ool with most of the market, it's as short as 8-11 with hills-lol.

This is available with Tote and and Baldfred, doubt it will be around for long though, the machine has even come into line.

Apparently he's def starting, if he was def taking the pens-i'd say it's highly likely he still will-it would be close to a max for me.

My logic is this:

Very few books still do ew fgs, it's not a great bet for them, esp in a game like this.

Lampard is a fairly priced 6/1 fgs, at 1/3 of the odds the place part plays 2-1.

Normally if we just wanted to back the place we'd get much worse than 2-1 though, I make it 6/4 max.

Take Lambert for example. He's 4-1 to score first with 365, so we get just shy of 11/8 on the anytime/place part.

If we wanted to back this stand alone we'd have to take 5/6-hills are 1/3-again lol.


Anyway, enough waffling, recommend £50 on Lampard to score anytime@2-1 (Tote/Betfred) v Moldova.


I can't see any possible way this is bigger than a 6/4 shot to be honest.  Think we should have more on.  On a 3k bank i would suggest 120.

Agree!
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Chompy
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« Reply #52542 on: September 05, 2013, 10:10:18 PM »

The 7/1 won't be there much longer for GLB. Same comment the 8/1 Garswood.

The rain is definitely coming. Lethal Force doesn't want soft ground and I don't think Reckless Abandon will see it out in the conditions. Swiss Spirit doesn't want mud either, likewise Kingsgate Native.


I gather the CofC watered it today?!

Apparently the far side is better in heavy? Low draw, most of the pace in the race?

Tellwright is just comedy. Don't know how some of these guys get the job. Nick Lees at Newmarket was beyond belief sometimes and his efforts were well and truly shown up by Prosser, who's as good as there is. Chris Stickels is the one that gets me, son of the worst judge this side of Dave Smith and seems hopeless. But gets the Ascot gig.

If it's heavy, which seems odds-on...

7/2 Lord Gordon, 4 Garswood, Lethal Bizzle, 8 Bar.

Haydock used to be a high bias on heavy but there's not much in it now, they'll probably come down the middle. Although Lethal has the option of staying to the inner from stall 1, the course will have had plenty of racing by that point and it will be about finding the freshest ground. Wouldn't pay any attention to the draw here.

Sparrow, I'd say this is just a great trading spot. Get as much as you can on at 7 and 8 respectively and wait for the prices to come down as the rain falls. Then lay some back.
« Last Edit: September 05, 2013, 10:12:47 PM by Chompy » Logged

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« Reply #52543 on: September 05, 2013, 10:10:59 PM »

I really don't do recommends as I have history for flouncing when re-buffed, bit like chomps. Smiley

However, I really do think that the 2-1 for Lampard to score anytime is way too big and ool with most of the market, it's as short as 8-11 with hills-lol.

This is available with Tote and and Baldfred, doubt it will be around for long though, the machine has even come into line.

Apparently he's def starting, if he was def taking the pens-i'd say it's highly likely he still will-it would be close to a max for me.

My logic is this:

Very few books still do ew fgs, it's not a great bet for them, esp in a game like this.

Lampard is a fairly priced 6/1 fgs, at 1/3 of the odds the place part plays 2-1.

Normally if we just wanted to back the place we'd get much worse than 2-1 though, I make it 6/4 max.

Take Lambert for example. He's 4-1 to score first with 365, so we get just shy of 11/8 on the anytime/place part.

If we wanted to back this stand alone we'd have to take 5/6-hills are 1/3-again lol.


Anyway, enough waffling, recommend £50 on Lampard to score anytime@2-1 (Tote/Betfred) v Moldova.


I can't see any possible way this is bigger than a 6/4 shot to be honest.  Think we should have more on.  On a 3k bank i would suggest 120.

How likely is he to play the full 90?

Not that he will probably need to

Agreed should be a bigger bet
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Nico29
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« Reply #52544 on: September 05, 2013, 10:18:10 PM »

I'd be guessing on how likely he is tbh mate.

However, I can't see them chopping and changing too crazily, pretty sure Roy would like to get some kind of fluidity into the team.

Whilst the match is still competitive to a degree I believe Lamps will stay on.

With Ukraine coming up on Tuesday though I could see him being taken off with 20 minutes to go perhaps.

Still think even taking everything into account it's a good bet.

Mainly just down to the pure math.
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