Tips for Tikay

[horseplayer]

Line seems to have moved down a fair bit so the bet was/is good

I still personally think the around 18 mark will be very close myself....

[Nico29]

Line seems to have moved down a fair bit so the bet was/is good

I still personally think the around 18 mark will be very close myself....

I think over 14.5@10-11 betvictor seems a decent bet actually.

[Doobs]

Wondering if doobs would advise Zain Eagle@7/4 in the 5pm at donny today?

Ladbrokes have the £25 free bet refund for the whole St Leger meeting not just the Ch4 races.

Only concern would be that it's 3.15 on Betfair, but with the concession I thought it might 'fit' into his category.

Does fred get bpg with laddies?

It looks fine, even if it drifts to 2.25, you ar effectively getting 5/2 on a less than 9/4 chance.  Then the best odds means you have a good chance to get bigger.  I think anything in that region is probably backable blind.

[tikay]

In the 1.40, we had Wind Fire (7/2) who finished second, so no cigar, but a £25 Free Bet.

[tikay]

Wondering if doobs would advise Zain Eagle@7/4 in the 5pm at donny today?

Ladbrokes have the £25 free bet refund for the whole St Leger meeting not just the Ch4 races.

Only concern would be that it's 3.15 on Betfair, but with the concession I thought it might 'fit' into his category.

Does fred get bpg with laddies?

It looks fine, even if it drifts to 2.25, you ar effectively getting 5/2 on a less than 9/4 chance.  Then the best odds means you have a good chance to get bigger.  I think anything in that region is probably backable blind.

Gotcha. On my way.

[BigAdz]

Line seems to have moved down a fair bit so the bet was/is good

I still personally think the around 18 mark will be very close myself....

Certainly the new line of 14.5 looks low. Last season Ronaldo and Higuain over and year before those two and Benzema. He is sure to be given plenty of opportunity

[tikay]

Wondering if doobs would advise Zain Eagle@7/4 in the 5pm at donny today?

Ladbrokes have the £25 free bet refund for the whole St Leger meeting not just the Ch4 races.

Only concern would be that it's 3.15 on Betfair, but with the concession I thought it might 'fit' into his category.

Does fred get bpg with laddies?

It looks fine, even if it drifts to 2.25, you ar effectively getting 5/2 on a less than 9/4 chance.  Then the best odds means you have a good chance to get bigger.  I think anything in that region is probably backable blind.

"Offer", suggested by Nico, backed up by Dr Doobs.

We have £25 @ 7/4, Ladbrokes, Zain Eagle, 5pm Doncaster, MONEY BACK AS FREE BET IF 2nd

ON



13/09/2013 0000433 Single (To win) 1 £25.00  17:00 Race winner  Zain Eagle  7/4

[Doobs]

May as well add another to the Leger book.  Foundry is 6/1 with Hills which beats Betfair and we have 2 free Hills bets.

Our Leger book is looking good.  Leading Light is now challenging for favouritism and we got 10/1.  Libertarian is only available at 8/1 in one spot currently.

[Jamier-Host]

Line seems to have moved down a fair bit so the bet was/is good

I still personally think the around 18 mark will be very close myself....

Any temptation to get on Over 14.5 and try to middle them by winning both bets with a 15/16/17 result?

[tikay]

Sorry I have no time, but most of these are written up elsewhere

For discussion

- Harlequins v Northampton in the RU tonight. Should be a cracker, Northampton are 3 point dogs but the weather is going to be grim, and Northampton have strengthened in the off season. A stray fiver on the draw at 20-1 is a possible for me. Northampton outright 11/8, 10/11 +3 I like, whereas I wouldn't have selected that last season.

- England in the 4th ODI tomorrow are out to 11/8. Australia were 4/5 before the first ODI, 4/6 before the 2nd and 3rd and 4/7 now

In part this is because Eng are stubbornly sticking to a line up lacking a fith bowler but there is a big toss bias in England in September. Cardiff tomorrow starts at 10.15am and whoever wins the toss is favourite. England currently 11/8 and thats value for a heads/tails call assuming the game then goes to a -difficult to bat first, advantage in batting second under D/L pattern that is typical of these games

- NFL is tougher this week I think but I think my pick is St Louis +7 at Atlanta. St Louis are much improved. Solid defense, more point scoring options, good long field goal kicker. Atlanta are hurting on the OL, and at WR. +7 St Louis is very much a price set off last year's form and not really a reflection of the health of both teams going into this game

Thanks Rich.

These were "for discussion" rather than Fred Bets, so we are not on at present, we'll await "discussion" if any.

I've backed them off-thread though.

[tikay]

Line seems to have moved down a fair bit so the bet was/is good

I still personally think the around 18 mark will be very close myself....

Any temptation to get on Over 14.5 and try to middle them by winning both bets with a 15/16/17 result?

We would have to consider it, yes, but I'd need some help from Team Maths first.

We currently have a rather large £110 @ 10/11, on UNDER 17.5.

I'm not averse, but I need to grasp the maths & Bet Sizing first. Presumably we'd need to have another £110 the other way, which would mean we win big if he middles, (or "EsoKrals" as it is known in the trade)  & break even otherwise?

[Jamier-Host]

Well, you'd actually lose a bit if it ended up either side of that, but would say it's a pretty sweet price to get for the middle 3 scores.

Basically this is a bit like a "hedge" and so should probably evaluate the new line/price ignoring the previous bet, else we'll get told off

[edgascoigne]

Line seems to have moved down a fair bit so the bet was/is good

I still personally think the around 18 mark will be very close myself....

Any temptation to get on Over 14.5 and try to middle them by winning both bets with a 15/16/17 result?

We would have to consider it, yes, but I'd need some help from Team Maths first.

We currently have a rather large £110 @ 10/11, on UNDER 17.5.

I'm not averse, but I need to grasp the maths & Bet Sizing first. Presumably we'd need to have another £110 the other way, which would mean we win big if he middles, (or "EsoKrals" as it is known in the trade)  & break even otherwise?

You'd basically be betting £20 to win £200 on the middle, so 15, 16 or 17 goals.

Put it this way, if someone offered me 10/1 on him scoring in that range I would be snapping their arm off quicker than an arm-snapper-offer-thing.

[Nico29]

I guess the way the line has moved shows what a great spot Dubai made.

The bet fred had for under 17.5 is now 2/5, and if you want over 17.5 you can get 7/4 now.

Def an interesting situation.

[JaffaCake]

Line seems to have moved down a fair bit so the bet was/is good

I still personally think the around 18 mark will be very close myself....

Any temptation to get on Over 14.5 and try to middle them by winning both bets with a 15/16/17 result?

We would have to consider it, yes, but I'd need some help from Team Maths first.

We currently have a rather large £110 @ 10/11, on UNDER 17.5.

I'm not averse, but I need to grasp the maths & Bet Sizing first. Presumably we'd need to have another £110 the other way, which would mean we win big if he middles, (or "EsoKrals" as it is known in the trade)  & break even otherwise?

Ah, didn't know u had a bet already. I thought the 16.5 on offer at Coral looked high, 17.5 even better. I wouldn't wanna back him to get more than 13 or 14 myself. Taking less free kicks and not averse to pulling up lame too, plus he's missed all of preseason so won't hit the ground running now I wouldn't think. Maybe that will pile extra pressure on too, if he goes the first few games without doing much as he gets fit, not that patient the Madrid fans