Tips for Tikay

[Longy]

College football primer for the week as I am on a stag do all weekend.

Oregon are at home to Tennessee this weekend. When this was scheduled, 5+ years ago it could have been predicted to be a titanic clash between 2 top teams from 2 of the top conferences. Unfortunately Tennessee are in a down period and are in the bottom half of teams in the SEC (South Eastern conference).

The game still holds some lustre as Tennessee is still a big name in college football, a certain Peyton Manning went to school there. So the game will get some spotlight, unfortunately it is on at the same time as the biggest clash of the year so far.

That clash being Alabama at Texas A&M, a top 10 clash a repeat of last years game of the year. When Johnny Manziel had his Heisman moment(s), it was national champion Alabama's only defeat of the year.

[tikay]

Line seems to have moved down a fair bit so the bet was/is good

I still personally think the around 18 mark will be very close myself....

Any temptation to get on Over 14.5 and try to middle them by winning both bets with a 15/16/17 result?

We would have to consider it, yes, but I'd need some help from Team Maths first.

We currently have a rather large £110 @ 10/11, on UNDER 17.5.

I'm not averse, but I need to grasp the maths & Bet Sizing first. Presumably we'd need to have another £110 the other way, which would mean we win big if he middles, (or "EsoKrals" as it is known in the trade)  & break even otherwise?

Ah, didn't know u had a bet already. I thought the 16.5 on offer at Coral looked high, 17.5 even better. I wouldn't wanna back him to get more than 13 or 14 myself. Taking less free kicks and not averse to pulling up lame too, plus he's missed all of preseason so won't hit the ground running now I wouldn't think. Maybe that will pile extra pressure on too, if he goes the first few games without doing much as he gets fit, not that patient the Madrid fans

Personally, I'm with you here Jeff, very much "Unders" for the reasons you mention, but I just need to grasp the maths of it all, & how much we'd need to bet to make it work.

Ed - why do you think 15-16-17 is a lot less than a 10/1 shot? Not arguing, just curious as to the logic.

[McGlashan]

Line seems to have moved down a fair bit so the bet was/is good

I still personally think the around 18 mark will be very close myself....

Any temptation to get on Over 14.5 and try to middle them by winning both bets with a 15/16/17 result?

Yes although we could wait a little longer to pull the trigger.

Villarreal host Real Madrid on Saturday in what should be a cracking game and with Real's 1st and 2nd choice LB out there's rumours of Bale starting at LB.

Previously I was quickly lambasted for suggesting Bale wouldn't start every game but with Neymar and RVP there's a precedent for new signings starting from the bench and slowly being introduced when there are existing big names in those positions.

[hector62]

Afternoon Mr T.

I like Northampton tonight too and if the weather is as bad as it is here then the draw is a goer.

[tikay]

In the 2.10, the cigar shortage continues, but we were 2nd, so we add to our stock of £25 Free Bets. Tighty will be chuffed to bits.

[Nico29]

It's strange indeed how much the market disagrees on him.

Coral seem to fancy overs, as do paddy's hugely by offering 11/10 under 14.5.

Yet buttermeup are convinced by the other side.

Personally i'd say victorrrrrrrrrrrrr at these lines and take my chances.

Not sure if i'd be punting too much tho, probs gonna leave it as might let heart rule head.

As a spurs fan I thought Bale was unreal, think he'll be same in Madrid.

Personally think the original market over-reacted as Dubai spotted.

Now I think it's somewhat moved a little too far the other way.

However, I am more tempted by over 20.5 goals@9-2 myself for a small fun punt*

*obv not a rec

[tikay]

Afternoon Mr T.

I like Northampton tonight too and if the weather is as bad as it is here then the draw is a goer.

Thanks hector.

I don't think the draw works as a standalone bet, so I'm quite interested in pairing it with the Win bet.

[tikay]

It's strange indeed how much the market disagrees on him.

Coral seem to fancy overs, as do paddy's hugely by offering 11/10 under 14.5.

Yet buttermeup are convinced by the other side.

Personally i'd say victorrrrrrrrrrrrr at these lines and take my chances.

Not sure if i'd be punting too much tho, probs gonna leave it as might let heart rule head.

As a spurs fan I thought Bale was unreal, think he'll be same in Madrid.

Personally think the original market over-reacted as Dubai spotted.

Now I think it's somewhat moved a little too far the other way.

However, I am more tempted by over 20.5 goals@9-2 myself for a small fun punt*

*obv not a rec

My gut instinct is to let our existing position ride "as is" but my mind is open.

We must remember he is with a very big team now, not a mediocre, mid-table Premier League team.

[Nico29]

It's strange indeed how much the market disagrees on him.

Coral seem to fancy overs, as do paddy's hugely by offering 11/10 under 14.5.

Yet buttermeup are convinced by the other side.

Personally i'd say victorrrrrrrrrrrrr at these lines and take my chances.

Not sure if i'd be punting too much tho, probs gonna leave it as might let heart rule head.

As a spurs fan I thought Bale was unreal, think he'll be same in Madrid.

Personally think the original market over-reacted as Dubai spotted.

Now I think it's somewhat moved a little too far the other way.

However, I am more tempted by over 20.5 goals@9-2 myself for a small fun punt*

*obv not a rec

My gut instinct is to let our existing position ride "as is" but my mind is open.

We must remember he is with a very big team now, not a mediocre, mid-table Premier League team.

Not biting! Oops obv did.

Tbh altho I fancy overs I do think sometimes these things can be over complicated.

You have a great first bet as the market proves in terms of value.

Not sure you should now bet overs just to hedge/go for the middle.

Having said all that it's fascinating to learn about these theories and the best 'value' play, from those such as badbeat.

Would be interested to hear both his and dubai's thoughts on this market position.

[tikay]

Sorry I have no time, but most of these are written up elsewhere

For discussion

- Harlequins v Northampton in the RU tonight. Should be a cracker, Northampton are 3 point dogs but the weather is going to be grim, and Northampton have strengthened in the off season. A stray fiver on the draw at 20-1 is a possible for me. Northampton outright 11/8, 10/11 +3 I like, whereas I wouldn't have selected that last season.

- England in the 4th ODI tomorrow are out to 11/8. Australia were 4/5 before the first ODI, 4/6 before the 2nd and 3rd and 4/7 now

In part this is because Eng are stubbornly sticking to a line up lacking a fith bowler but there is a big toss bias in England in September. Cardiff tomorrow starts at 10.15am and whoever wins the toss is favourite. England currently 11/8 and thats value for a heads/tails call assuming the game then goes to a -difficult to bat first, advantage in batting second under D/L pattern that is typical of these games

- NFL is tougher this week I think but I think my pick is St Louis +7 at Atlanta. St Louis are much improved. Solid defense, more point scoring options, good long field goal kicker. Atlanta are hurting on the OL, and at WR. +7 St Louis is very much a price set off last year's form and not really a reflection of the health of both teams going into this game

For Fred, now, the Rugby.

I went Route Nit & took 10/11, +3, in addition to 20/1 the draw for £5.

£33 @ 10/11, Corals, Northampton (+3) over Harlequins.

£5 @ 20/1, Corals, Draw.

ON


Northampton +3.010/11Harlequins v Northampton - 13/09/2013
Stake £33.00
Estimated Return:£63.00
Total Stake: £33.00
Potential Return: £63.00
CONTINUE
Clear Bet Slip
Retain bet selections
Balance: £459.1

___________

Draw20/1Harlequins v Northampton - 13/09/2013
Stake £5.00
Estimated Return:£105.00
Total Stake: £5.00
Potential Return: £105.00

[tikay]

It's strange indeed how much the market disagrees on him.

Coral seem to fancy overs, as do paddy's hugely by offering 11/10 under 14.5.

Yet buttermeup are convinced by the other side.

Personally i'd say victorrrrrrrrrrrrr at these lines and take my chances.

Not sure if i'd be punting too much tho, probs gonna leave it as might let heart rule head.

As a spurs fan I thought Bale was unreal, think he'll be same in Madrid.

Personally think the original market over-reacted as Dubai spotted.

Now I think it's somewhat moved a little too far the other way.

However, I am more tempted by over 20.5 goals@9-2 myself for a small fun punt*

*obv not a rec

My gut instinct is to let our existing position ride "as is" but my mind is open.

We must remember he is with a very big team now, not a mediocre, mid-table Premier League team.

Not biting! Oops obv did.

Tbh altho I fancy overs I do think sometimes these things can be over complicated.

You have a great first bet as the market proves in terms of value.

Not sure you should now bet overs just to hedge/go for the middle.

Having said all that it's fascinating to learn about these theories and the best 'value' play, from those such as badbeat.

Would be interested to hear both his and dubai's thoughts on this market position.

Ha, the bait was specifically aimed at Chess Bloke, don't queer his pitch! I don't believe that for a second, of course. Spurs are a top half team.

I agree with the rest, the debate is fascinating. I'm still, at present, not convinced we should change our position, we have a great bet, the Market tells us that.

[BigAdz]

Where is Chess bloke. Is he all punted out?!

[tikay]

Cigars we have none. Free bets, the shelves are overflowing.

Three x £25 Free Bets from three races.

Am gagging for a smoke.

[Doobs]

In the 2.10, the cigar shortage continues, but we were 2nd, so we add to our stock of £25 Free Bets. Tighty will be chuffed to bits.

So pleased Aaron stepped up to the plate today.  

[tikay]

In the 2.10, the cigar shortage continues, but we were 2nd, so we add to our stock of £25 Free Bets. Tighty will be chuffed to bits.

So pleased Aaron stepped up to the plate today.  

!

We have THREE now, lol.