Tips for Tikay

[horseplayer]

Nothing wrong with playing the offer Aaron im talking about the free bets

Free bets dont have to be used on racing? And not on a market that has had a fair time to form to probably nearing correct odds.

[tikay]

We have 7/4 about Ihtimal in this, which went off at 11/10.

[tikay]

Boom!

At last.

[aaron1867]

No free bet.

Less work, Tighty.

Actually finished 11/10, nap landed

[tikay]

Whilst i appreciate every bet is a seperate entity is there a real need for any more bets on a market that has been well established for a while now?

Not fully sure I understand here, but seemed too good to miss out on today with the small fields.

I would t have put 5 up if not

Think, as horsey said, you have misunderstood there Aaron.

The debate is NOT about the original £25 Bets, it is about the resultant £25 Free Bets, which is a completely seperate thing.

[JaffaCake]

That nice man Paddy Power is boosting a Man U, Man C and Spurs treble from 2/1 to 5/2 for a short period live now, £25 max i think

[tikay]

Sorry I have no time, but most of these are written up elsewhere

For discussion

- Harlequins v Northampton in the RU tonight. Should be a cracker, Northampton are 3 point dogs but the weather is going to be grim, and Northampton have strengthened in the off season. A stray fiver on the draw at 20-1 is a possible for me. Northampton outright 11/8, 10/11 +3 I like, whereas I wouldn't have selected that last season.

- England in the 4th ODI tomorrow are out to 11/8. Australia were 4/5 before the first ODI, 4/6 before the 2nd and 3rd and 4/7 now

In part this is because Eng are stubbornly sticking to a line up lacking a fith bowler but there is a big toss bias in England in September. Cardiff tomorrow starts at 10.15am and whoever wins the toss is favourite. England currently 11/8 and thats value for a heads/tails call assuming the game then goes to a -difficult to bat first, advantage in batting second under D/L pattern that is typical of these games

- NFL is tougher this week I think but I think my pick is St Louis +7 at Atlanta. St Louis are much improved. Solid defense, more point scoring options, good long field goal kicker. Atlanta are hurting on the OL, and at WR. +7 St Louis is very much a price set off last year's form and not really a reflection of the health of both teams going into this game

No comments on thread about that, but several NFL whizzkids have been in touch & told me thy like that bet, so we'll likely get on.

Anyone against, speak now or hold your peace forever.......

As a rule, we back Tighty blind, but he made two things clear...

1) He is obliged to come up with a tip on every Televised game, whether he likes it or not.

2) This was for discusseion only, & I did not think he had a particularly strong view.

St Louis/Atlanta isn't Televised in the UK

It's my standout NFL bet of the week, and I am writing it up tomorrow

For discussion really means: I haven't got the time to write them up properly this afternoon and there are several very good NFL minds on the thread. If you back the view up, please post......


The cricket bet is very much related to the toss, and is less strong a view

Ahh my apologies Rich, stick & wrong end came together.

If that is your NFL bet of the week, I don't need anyone to back it up, though as I said, several have contacted me privately to say they like it.

All that remains is "how much"?

[aaron1867]

It's not like me to misunderstand something is it? Ha

Only just looked at market from when I posted this morning & in the 3.50 Barley Mow is 5/4 fav now.

[TightEnd]

£55 or so for a 10/11 NFL Handicap game from me, equivalent to a standard thread bet for that type of bet

Interested to see what Neil, Phil, redarmi, kukushin think about this weekend. Didn't see much, though could be tempted by Cleveland +7 at Baltimore.


Of note the Bengals are live on Monday night football, 6 point favourites against the Steelers, who are badly injury hit

The Steelers coach Mike Tomlin has never been more than 1 game below 500 (50% season win rate) in his tenure as head coach and has never lost a game when his team has taken the field with a losing record. This is over six seasons!

[tikay]

That nice man Paddy Power is boosting a Man U, Man C and Spurs treble from 2/1 to 5/2 for a short period live now, £25 max i think

Thanks Jeff.

That beats the singles prices if you multiply them up, but I positively loathe such bets.

Every Saturday, I see the "Big Name" Trebles & Accas that are placed with the big bookies, & the sheer number of them would astound you. Essentially, it is exactly those bets where the bookies make the bulk of their money, which is precisely why they Market them so hard, & repeatedly. To be fair, betting that sort of stuff must help keep the account open longer. All imo of course.

[tikay]

£55 or so for a 10/11 NFL Handicap game from me, equivalent to a standard thread bet for that type of bet

Interested to see what Neil, Phil, redarmi, kukushin think about this weekend. Didn't see much, though could be tempted by Cleveland +7 at Baltimore.


Of note the Bengals are live on Monday night football, 6 point favourites against the Steelers, who are badly injury hit

The Steelers coach Mike Tomlin has never been more than 1 game below 500 (50% season win rate) in his tenure as head coach and has never lost a game when his team has taken the field with a losing record. This is over six seasons!

Bobby has intermittent internet at present, he is on a beach in Spain, ogling scantily clad nubile ladies, but he likes the bet.

[Nico29]

Pretty sure doobs knows what he's doing regarding the usage of the free bets largely on one event.

My opinion would be that it reduces our variance, with every single +ev bet a different entity anyway.

[tikay]

Sorry I have no time, but most of these are written up elsewhere

For discussion

- Harlequins v Northampton in the RU tonight. Should be a cracker, Northampton are 3 point dogs but the weather is going to be grim, and Northampton have strengthened in the off season. A stray fiver on the draw at 20-1 is a possible for me. Northampton outright 11/8, 10/11 +3 I like, whereas I wouldn't have selected that last season.

- England in the 4th ODI tomorrow are out to 11/8. Australia were 4/5 before the first ODI, 4/6 before the 2nd and 3rd and 4/7 now

In part this is because Eng are stubbornly sticking to a line up lacking a fith bowler but there is a big toss bias in England in September. Cardiff tomorrow starts at 10.15am and whoever wins the toss is favourite. England currently 11/8 and thats value for a heads/tails call assuming the game then goes to a -difficult to bat first, advantage in batting second under D/L pattern that is typical of these games

- NFL is tougher this week I think but I think my pick is St Louis +7 at Atlanta. St Louis are much improved. Solid defense, more point scoring options, good long field goal kicker. Atlanta are hurting on the OL, and at WR. +7 St Louis is very much a price set off last year's form and not really a reflection of the health of both teams going into this game

No comments on thread about that, but several NFL whizzkids have been in touch & told me thy like that bet, so we'll likely get on.

Anyone against, speak now or hold your peace forever.......

As a rule, we back Tighty blind, but he made two things clear...

1) He is obliged to come up with a tip on every Televised game, whether he likes it or not.

2) This was for discusseion only, & I did not think he had a particularly strong view.

St Louis/Atlanta isn't Televised in the UK

It's my standout NFL bet of the week, and I am writing it up tomorrow

For discussion really means: I haven't got the time to write them up properly this afternoon and there are several very good NFL minds on the thread. If you back the view up, please post......


The cricket bet is very much related to the toss, and is less strong a view

That NFL bet may have to wait, as the best I can get at present is +6.5 @ 10/11, or +7 @ 5/6, though I'm a bit unclear what difference that makes. 7 is a key number, is it not?

Should we take +7 @ 5/6?


http://www.oddschecker.com/american-football/nfl/st-louis-rams-at-atlanta-falcons/point-spread

[tikay]

Pretty sure doobs knows what he's doing regarding the usage of the free bets largely on one event.

My opinion would be that it reduces our variance, with every single +ev bet a different entity anyway.

No doubting that at all, but both horsey & Tighty are a bit uncomfy with it, & the debate is worthwhile.

[edgascoigne]

Pretty sure doobs knows what he's doing regarding the usage of the free bets largely on one event.

My opinion would be that it reduces our variance, with every single +ev bet a different entity anyway.

Yep.

If you had six £25 free bets and a dog race was betting 5/1 the field (dream on, I know, but it's a good example if we believe we are betting 0ev bets with the free bet stakes)....

....you would guarantee a return of £125 from £150 worth of tokens.

Better still if you had sixteen £25 free bets and bet them on a handicap that was 15/1 the field...

...you would guarantee a return of £375 from £400 worth of tokens.

1) The longer the price the better assuming a 0ev bet with a free bet token.

2) Increased selections in the same race has no effect on expectation but a positive effect in reducing variance of realisation of the value of the free bet tokens.

EDIT: It's obviously (a) less fun though and (b) assumes you couldn't be finding +EV selections on which to place them. It's a great route to 'unlocking' their value and getting the funds back in the kitty though.