Tips for Tikay

[TightEnd]

Sorry I have no time, but most of these are written up elsewhere

For discussion

- Harlequins v Northampton in the RU tonight. Should be a cracker, Northampton are 3 point dogs but the weather is going to be grim, and Northampton have strengthened in the off season. A stray fiver on the draw at 20-1 is a possible for me. Northampton outright 11/8, 10/11 +3 I like, whereas I wouldn't have selected that last season.

- England in the 4th ODI tomorrow are out to 11/8. Australia were 4/5 before the first ODI, 4/6 before the 2nd and 3rd and 4/7 now

In part this is because Eng are stubbornly sticking to a line up lacking a fith bowler but there is a big toss bias in England in September. Cardiff tomorrow starts at 10.15am and whoever wins the toss is favourite. England currently 11/8 and thats value for a heads/tails call assuming the game then goes to a -difficult to bat first, advantage in batting second under D/L pattern that is typical of these games

- NFL is tougher this week I think but I think my pick is St Louis +7 at Atlanta. St Louis are much improved. Solid defense, more point scoring options, good long field goal kicker. Atlanta are hurting on the OL, and at WR. +7 St Louis is very much a price set off last year's form and not really a reflection of the health of both teams going into this game

No comments on thread about that, but several NFL whizzkids have been in touch & told me thy like that bet, so we'll likely get on.

Anyone against, speak now or hold your peace forever.......

As a rule, we back Tighty blind, but he made two things clear...

1) He is obliged to come up with a tip on every Televised game, whether he likes it or not.

2) This was for discusseion only, & I did not think he had a particularly strong view.

St Louis/Atlanta isn't Televised in the UK

It's my standout NFL bet of the week, and I am writing it up tomorrow

For discussion really means: I haven't got the time to write them up properly this afternoon and there are several very good NFL minds on the thread. If you back the view up, please post......


The cricket bet is very much related to the toss, and is less strong a view

That NFL bet may have to wait, as the best I can get at present is +6.5 @ 10/11, or +7 @ 5/6, though I'm a bit unclear what difference that makes. 7 is a key number, is it not?

Should we take +7 @ 5/6?


http://www.oddschecker.com/american-football/nfl/st-louis-rams-at-atlanta-falcons/point-spread

Seven is a key number. You can lose by a touchdown and push

We should see 10/11 again, will keep my eyes open

[Tonji]

Suggestion for your free Hills bet.

http://www.oddschecker.com/cycling/one-day-classics/grand-prix-de-quebec/winner

Filippo Pozzato, a winner at the beginning of the month in GP Ouest France - Plouay. Crucially, Pozatto hopes to cement a leaders spot in the upcoming World Championships but if he doesn’t ride well in Canada over the weekend and win, then Bettini (Italian manager) will focus all energies on Nibali for Florence.

Hills best priced at 18/1.

He's up against the uberwhizzkid Sagan, so EW maybe the way to go.

[horseplayer]

Pretty sure doobs knows what he's doing regarding the usage of the free bets largely on one event.

My opinion would be that it reduces our variance, with every single +ev bet a different entity anyway.

Yep.

If you had six £25 free bets and a dog race was betting 5/1 the field (dream on, I know, but it's a good example if we believe we are betting 0ev bets with the free bet stakes)....

....you would guarantee a return of £125 from £150 worth of tokens.

Better still if you had sixteen £25 free bets and bet them on a handicap that was 15/1 the field...

...you would guarantee a return of £375 from £400 worth of tokens.

1) The longer the price the better assuming a 0ev bet with a free bet token.

2) Increased selections in the same race has no effect on expectation but a positive effect in reducing variance of realisation of the value of the free bet tokens.

EDIT: It's obviously (a) less fun though and (b) assumes you couldn't be finding +EV selections on which to place them. It's a great route to 'unlocking' their value and getting the funds back in the kitty though.

Thanks Ed

That makes sense but the last bit would be my viewpoint.

The main basis of backing these horses most days is to then benefit from finding value or at least perceived value with the free bets? Not just to find the best way to get the stake back as cash?

If we are just looking to use free bets to get the cash back then i would personally be surprised if so many short priced horses on there own are all value at the time of the bets being placed

[Doobs]

It just looks to me like an excuse to use the free bets sometimes

Unless they are expiring within the next 24 hours dont see what the hurry is

We have 5 free bets to use in a week.  

I am not going to find that many bets that have to be on Hills, and Hills alone, in the average week that I think are both value and a decent price (6/1+, preferably bigger).

I have tried looking at the golf markets, and Hills are rarely stand out on annything, and we'll be lucky to get close to Betfair, never mind beat it.  I have put some bets on ante post, and have a few on football markets.  Most of the other stuff is a bit far from my circle of expertise.

If I haven't got anything in mind then I really don't think there is any harm in when looking at the Leger market and spotting what looks like a decent price on Betfair nd just taking it.  I am really not going to find many that are a good price and beat Betfair on Hills in an average week without sittting on Betfair all week.  I may see something better on Saturday, I may not.  

The other bets on the Leger are irrelevant, if that bet is value or close to it, then it is fine.  Even if it is only the exact right price then we make our +20%.  

If people think they can do better, put the bets up in the morning and get the freebies and just go ahead.

Good luck Aaron.

[redarmi]

Think St Louis bet is fair.  +7 5/6 is better than 10/11 +6.5.

[Nico29]

Not a particular horse tip for fred, but in the 425 donny pp are going first 4 ew for a promo.

Seeing as there are only 14 runners it's a good race to bet each way in with them.

[Chompy]

Just back from crushing Nirvana and Pizzled hard on the golf course. Have we backed anything for the Ledger yet?

[tikay]

Suggestion for your free Hills bet.

http://www.oddschecker.com/cycling/one-day-classics/grand-prix-de-quebec/winner

Filippo Pozzato, a winner at the beginning of the month in GP Ouest France - Plouay. Crucially, Pozatto hopes to cement a leaders spot in the upcoming World Championships but if he doesn’t ride well in Canada over the weekend and win, then Bettini (Italian manager) will focus all energies on Nibali for Florence.

Hills best priced at 18/1.

He's up against the uberwhizzkid Sagan, so EW maybe the way to go.

Thanks Bike Bloke, the perfect use of a Free Bet. Hils are considerably best priced here. Has to be Win Only though, not EW.

We have a £25 Free Bet, Wm Hill, Filippo Pozzato, 18/1, GP Quebec. (Bike Race)

Will you keep us updated please?

ON

13 Sep 13 / 15:44

Stake

GP Quebec - Outright – Filippo Pozzato @ 18/1

- £25.00

O/0457483/0000629/F

[tikay]

Just back from crushing Nirvana and Pizzled hard on the golf course. Have we backed anything for the Ledger yet?

We are trying to find one we have not bet yet. Bear with us.

[nirvana]

Just back from crushing Nirvana and Pizzled hard on the golf course. Have we backed anything for the Ledger yet?

Hard to know whether you should be known as Choppy or Chokey after that abizz back 9

[tikay]

Think St Louis bet is fair.  +7 5/6 is better than 10/11 +6.5.

Seals the deal.

We have £60 @ 5/6, Wm Hill, Rams (+7) over Falcons

ON



15 Sep 2013 - St. Louis Rams @ Atlanta Falcons - Match Spread

St. Louis Rams (+7.0) @ 5/6

Stake : £60.00


Estimated Returns : £

110.00



Transaction Reference:

O/0457483/0000630/F

[Nico29]

Aaron the free bet king.

[TightEnd]

Fucks sake, another free bet

[tikay]

It just looks to me like an excuse to use the free bets sometimes

Unless they are expiring within the next 24 hours dont see what the hurry is

We have 5 free bets to use in a week.  

I am not going to find that many bets that have to be on Hills, and Hills alone, in the average week that I think are both value and a decent price (6/1+, preferably bigger).

I have tried looking at the golf markets, and Hills are rarely stand out on annything, and we'll be lucky to get close to Betfair, never mind beat it.  I have put some bets on ante post, and have a few on football markets.  Most of the other stuff is a bit far from my circle of expertise.

If I haven't got anything in mind then I really don't think there is any harm in when looking at the Leger market and spotting what looks like a decent price on Betfair nd just taking it.  I am really not going to find many that are a good price and beat Betfair on Hills in an average week without sittting on Betfair all week.  I may see something better on Saturday, I may not.  

The other bets on the Leger are irrelevant, if that bet is value or close to it, then it is fine.  Even if it is only the exact right price then we make our +20%.  

If people think they can do better, put the bets up in the morning and get the freebies and just go ahead.

Good luck Aaron.

I'm geting a bit lost in all this, do we still want to bet Foundry as a Free Bet? Fine by me if "yes".

Currently Wm Hill go 11/2, not 6/1 which you mentioned earlier, evidently whilst I was dithering, others were lumping on, the buggers.


http://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing-betting/2013-09-14-doncaster/15:50/winner

[Omm]

Not a particular horse tip for fred, but in the 425 donny pp are going first 4 ew for a promo.

Seeing as there are only 14 runners it's a good race to bet each way in with them.

Most of their prices seem to be a few points shorter, does this still make it a good race for the extra place?