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Author Topic: Tips for Tikay  (Read 16571035 times)
tikay
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« Reply #53730 on: September 14, 2013, 11:01:44 PM »

At least Luke looks good for a return.

Sned....pull your finger out Sir.

I went for the top GB&I but after debate the Fred went for outright each way.  So he still needs a decent round to get the place.  Just hope he doesn't go mental for a win (that he cant get imo) to get into the top 30 rankings.

Like your bet 2xUp, good luck tomorrow.
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TheDazzler
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« Reply #53731 on: September 14, 2013, 11:10:10 PM »

Man City played against Stoke today and were lucky to escape with a draw. The report says City were 'below par'. They weren't, they were just below strength as Pellegrini put out a weakened side. Yes, they have had injuries in defence that has forced his hand somewhat but only Toure outside of the defence can be considered a 1st team regular. This is a poor side.

    01 Hart
    05 Zabaleta
    13 Kolarov
    14 Garcia
    33 Nastasic
    07 Milner
    08 Nasri (Navas - 73' )
    17 Rodwell
    35 Jovetic (Aguero - 63' )
    42 Toure
    09 Negredo

Pellegrini had half an eye on the Champs League game in midweek. City have failed to progress from the group stage the last 2 seasons and Pellegrini has been told in no uncertain terms that cannot happen again.
I didn't check any City prices today as this angle has only really occured to me since the result.
But I am assuming that City were pretty short to win today and then when the team news was announced, their price lengthened. If anybody knows, I'd appreciate some input. I think we may have some mileage in laying City pre team news before their next Champs League match.

In other news, Arsenal won today and Chelsea lost which, in addition to City failing to win, is good news for Fred.
United + Spurs won and Pool play tomorrow.
The pre season top three, Chelsea/City/United have all been singularly unimpressive thus far imo and we've got a very, very open title race at the moment.
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« Reply #53732 on: September 14, 2013, 11:11:23 PM »

At least Luke looks good for a return.

Sned....pull your finger out Sir.

I went for the top GB&I but after debate the Fred went for outright each way.  So he still needs a decent round to get the place.  Just hope he doesn't go mental for a win (that he cant get imo) to get into the top 30 rankings.


Ah sorry, I thought it was the GB bet. I must have missed that too then.
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Good evenink. I wish I had a girlfriend.......
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« Reply #53733 on: September 14, 2013, 11:13:08 PM »

Big tournaround hole 18.  C'mon Sneddy
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Most of the bets placed so far seem more like hopeful punts rather than value spots
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« Reply #53734 on: September 14, 2013, 11:13:24 PM »

Think I bet on every golfer apart from Luke Donald and Snedeker Sad
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tikay
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« Reply #53735 on: September 14, 2013, 11:14:46 PM »

We might have just got a good break with Sneddy.

Furyk dropped a shot at the last, and is now only two ahead of Sneddy, with Stricker sandwiched between them. Potentially great final day awaits.
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tikay
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« Reply #53736 on: September 14, 2013, 11:15:24 PM »

Big tournaround hole 18.  C'mon Sneddy

Huge!
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« Reply #53737 on: September 14, 2013, 11:53:14 PM »

Two of our Arc fancies run in tomorrow's trials.

Ocovango that was a bit speculative has been a bit disappointing since getting blocked in the Derby.  Think the bet looks dead at the minute, but if he can get close to Flintshire in the Prix Neil maybe we have some hope.  Maybe it is going to be heavy for the Arc and he slices through it ( straw clutching).  Maybe they'll go easy on Flintshire and we can get a good price tomorrow!

Orfevre has been aimed at the Arc all season.  He needs to win the Prix Foy to justify his price (currently just shy of evens). 

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Most of the bets placed so far seem more like hopeful punts rather than value spots
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« Reply #53738 on: September 14, 2013, 11:55:55 PM »

Man City played against Stoke today and were lucky to escape with a draw. The report says City were 'below par'. They weren't, they were just below strength as Pellegrini put out a weakened side. Yes, they have had injuries in defence that has forced his hand somewhat but only Toure outside of the defence can be considered a 1st team regular. This is a poor side.

    01 Hart
    05 Zabaleta
    13 Kolarov
    14 Garcia
    33 Nastasic
    07 Milner
    08 Nasri (Navas - 73' )
    17 Rodwell
    35 Jovetic (Aguero - 63' )
    42 Toure
    09 Negredo

Pellegrini had half an eye on the Champs League game in midweek. City have failed to progress from the group stage the last 2 seasons and Pellegrini has been told in no uncertain terms that cannot happen again.
I didn't check any City prices today as this angle has only really occured to me since the result.
But I am assuming that City were pretty short to win today and then when the team news was announced, their price lengthened. If anybody knows, I'd appreciate some input. I think we may have some mileage in laying City pre team news before their next Champs League match.

As luck would happen I traded / watched the whole game today.

Unsurprisingly given the change in personal City were even flatter than before. Stoke with their new found ability to pass the ball along the ground looked a better side than City, although they lacked a final ball.

City drifted from 1.7 to 1.74 post team news and unders came in from 1.93 to 1.9, it would be fair to say there wasn't too much of an adjustment in odds throughout the match.

Next time out they're at Villa Park before a midweek trip to Munich, so that'll be worth investigating.
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« Reply #53739 on: September 15, 2013, 12:04:52 AM »

Bazzaboy seeing as you mentioned a possible masterclass tonight, do think that the standout 1.4 with B'Win on Mayweather looks a bit filthy?

Post weigh in it looks like all the big money in the liquid markets has came in on Mayweather, he's trading at 1.37/38 on Betfair and the Pinny line has came into 1.34
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TheDazzler
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« Reply #53740 on: September 15, 2013, 12:24:57 AM »

Man City played against Stoke today and were lucky to escape with a draw. The report says City were 'below par'. They weren't, they were just below strength as Pellegrini put out a weakened side. Yes, they have had injuries in defence that has forced his hand somewhat but only Toure outside of the defence can be considered a 1st team regular. This is a poor side.

    01 Hart
    05 Zabaleta
    13 Kolarov
    14 Garcia
    33 Nastasic
    07 Milner
    08 Nasri (Navas - 73' )
    17 Rodwell
    35 Jovetic (Aguero - 63' )
    42 Toure
    09 Negredo

Pellegrini had half an eye on the Champs League game in midweek. City have failed to progress from the group stage the last 2 seasons and Pellegrini has been told in no uncertain terms that cannot happen again.
I didn't check any City prices today as this angle has only really occured to me since the result.
But I am assuming that City were pretty short to win today and then when the team news was announced, their price lengthened. If anybody knows, I'd appreciate some input. I think we may have some mileage in laying City pre team news before their next Champs League match.

As luck would happen I traded / watched the whole game today.

Unsurprisingly given the change in personal City were even flatter than before. Stoke with their new found ability to pass the ball along the ground looked a better side than City, although they lacked a final ball.

City drifted from 1.7 to 1.74 post team news and unders came in from 1.93 to 1.9, it would be fair to say there wasn't too much of an adjustment in odds throughout the match.

Next time out they're at Villa Park before a midweek trip to Munich, so that'll be worth investigating.

Cheers mate.
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« Reply #53741 on: September 15, 2013, 04:01:34 AM »

Decent-ish night for Fred in college football.  Texas A&M lost to #1 team in the nation Alabama which we really needed them to do if we are to cash the under 9.5 ticket.  Unfortunately on the downside Johnny Manziel looked like the best player in the league in the defeat but we are kinda relying on the chance that he blows up and does something stupid and he still might.  In the Oregon game Mariota threw fro 454 yards and 4 TD's in a crushing defeat of Tennesse.  they were expected to win easily but perhaps this outgunned even the most optimistic expectations so we are definitely alive there.
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« Reply #53742 on: September 15, 2013, 04:20:54 AM »

Waiting for the boxing to start, and I just noticed that my new favourite name in cycling is taking the line in the Tour of Britain later today: Steele von Hoff.

From the same school as Nikki Nakhi and Assombalongawonga, Mr von Hoff is a sprinter (not a striker) by trade. In the Tour of Poland in August, he was very impressive in coming 2nd and 3rd in two of the flatter stages, and was incidentally 2nd to Mark Cavendish in a stage of the ToB last year (in addition to an earlier 4th). It should come as no surprise that Cavendish is favourite for tomorrow's opening day. Hopefully it won't be a repeat of last year's proceedings, where a crash marred the final sprint.

Von Hoff is currently trading at 22/1 on Bet365, who are paying 1/4 odds the place (1-2-3). 14s @ Paddy and 11s @ Buttermeup says this price is way out of line, and I suggest Fred follows me on at £10 e/w in backing the Hoff. Will need to get on early though. I'm ready for a Tonji rebuff.
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tikay
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« Reply #53743 on: September 15, 2013, 09:04:50 AM »

Decent-ish night for Fred in college football.  Texas A&M lost to #1 team in the nation Alabama which we really needed them to do if we are to cash the under 9.5 ticket.  Unfortunately on the downside Johnny Manziel looked like the best player in the league in the defeat but we are kinda relying on the chance that he blows up and does something stupid and he still might.  In the Oregon game Mariota threw fro 454 yards and 4 TD's in a crushing defeat of Tennesse.  they were expected to win easily but perhaps this outgunned even the most optimistic expectations so we are definitely alive there.

Thanks Stu, excellent news.
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« Reply #53744 on: September 15, 2013, 09:09:08 AM »

Daily Report

Profit on Month £920.56

Outstanding bets £2966.90


Free bets to use Four, Ladbrokes x 3, William Hill x1. Ist deadline 17th September


https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Aia1Hxq-NDNWdFk3UmlTSXMzTjRBTVNfOWRndVFsZHc#gid=29


A loss overall of £38 yesterday

The winners were

- Leading Light won the St Leger for £240, from a long held free bet at 10-1

- England winning the 4th ODI at 11-8 for £55

- Outstrip winning the Doncaster opener for a £37 profit


As usual on a Saturday, a long litany of losers

- Both boxing bets lost, and eventually turned what was a daily profit at 6pm into a loss. Galahad won by stoppage with three rounds to go when we were tantalisingly close to the required points victory. Molina beat Smith on a split decision, for combined losses of £70

- Horse losers Aajjadd, Excess Knowledge, Libertarian, Mr Red Clubs combined for losses of £210

- Peterborough came very close to winning a goals bet, beating Bristol City 3-0 with a missed penalty on top. We needed 03.5 and 05.5 in the match. As it happened, we lost £50

- In FAC1Q both bets lost for £40, though dunce of the day goes to myself for tipping a home team that lost 6-2

In bets due to settle today:

-Golf Snedeker had an up and down day but goes into the last round two behind Furyk. Donald had a good day and got in contention for a sweat with a 67 to be T11. Speith was over par for the day and is T18

Such is the scoring potential at Conway farms though that any one of 25 golfers could win tonight. In each round someone has carded 59,61,63,64,65 and if the same happens again today, a player could come from a way back.

Looking at the Longer term positions

- Baseball It was a decent day. The Red Sox beat the Yankees. In the wild card race the Rays beat the Twins. With the Ranger losing  their fifth straight the Rays are now the leading wild card team. The Royals beat the Tigers too

- Cricket Middlesex and Sussex both drew and so the top of LVCC Div 1 looks like this coming to the end of the season:

1 Durham P14 224.5
2 Yorkshire P14 194
3 Middlesex P14 179
---------
4 Sussex P15 166
5 Warwicks P14 147

16 game season. So, with only one game to play, Sussex are struggling to get top 3 and we should scoop something on Middlesex each way

Next? Yorkshire v Middlesex and Sussex v Durham. Ouch

Rogers scored 108 yesterday

He's missed two months of the season and in the top captain bet the situation is as follows

Madsen 1219
Joyce 1008
Rogers 995

I am not taking it as a loser yet, but we need to go some to win it. More Rogers centuries give us a chance. With 1479 runs Rogers in the top runscorer across all cricket in England this year. Was one of the all time great bets, until he was called up for the Ashes!

In LVCC2 Lancashire were promoted when, badly affected by the weather, Essex could not beat Kent when in a dominating position. This was excellent news for Northants too

The situation is

1 Lancashire P14 228
2 Northants P14 188
3 Essex P14 167
----
4 Gloucs P14 156

Northants can seal an each way return for us this week by beating Kent at home.


Right, onto season bets. I hate Sunday mornings

Lets start with the good news from yesterday

* Wells and Assombolonga both scored 2 yesteray and remain in the top three in the Div 1 top scorer market behind Callum Wilson of Coventry City

* Arsenal and Ozil looked excellent in winning 3-1 at Sunderland. Chelsea lost, Man C drew, and the top 3 bet looks like it will be a runner

* Palace lost at Man U. No surprises. We have them to finish bottom

* Hull and Cardiff drew, a point each onto their totals for handicap bet purposes

* Kidderminster won, and are currently equal with/ahead of the two teams who started on handicap scratch, Forest Green and Luton with a seven point start

* Watford drew, and are 8th. Promotion and top half bets there

* Tranmere, who we have to be Esorelegated lost 4-3 at home. Equalised to go 3-3 in the last minute and lost to an injury time penalty. The pubs in Birkenhead would have done a roaring trade last night

* Texas A and M lost, though Manziel looked excellent. Oregon won and Mariotta recovered from a slow start to also look excellent

* Villareal, correcting myself, drew with RM. A point won then!

In the bad column

* Barnsley lost 3-2 at Forest.2-2 with ten minutes to go and I knew what would happen before it happened

* Bale scored on his RM debut. So did Beckham, both Ronaldos and Figo, by the way.

* Cazorla did not play, Navas was a sub....no assists there

* Bent was injured,Paulinho did not score

* Mackay looks no closer to being the first Premier League manager sacked

Reading, Southampton, Bilbao, Napoli, Jay Rodriguez, Kansas City Chiefs, Miami Dolphins, the Tennesee Titans, Philadelphia Eagles, Brees, Stafford, Ryan, Ocovango, Orfevre all play today .....



Can I get down now please Mum? Good.






« Last Edit: September 15, 2013, 09:21:48 AM by TightEnd » Logged

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