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Author Topic: Tips for Tikay  (Read 16366102 times)
Doobs
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« Reply #55290 on: September 27, 2013, 05:45:33 PM »

Betfair has 15/1 the field for the Cambridgeshire.

Someone wake the spider up!

The spider says Ascription at 14/1 and 6 places must be massive.  Paddy Power and Skybet.  PP also do best priced guarantee, suggest £20 e/w
« Last Edit: September 27, 2013, 05:50:17 PM by Doobs » Logged

Most of the bets placed so far seem more like hopeful punts rather than value spots
BigAdz
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« Reply #55291 on: September 27, 2013, 05:46:00 PM »

Betfair has 15/1 the field for the Cambridgeshire.

Someone wake the spider up!


Gonna be fun. Got 9 entries in my tracker in the one race. Never even had 5 horses on one day, now got 9 in one bloody race!
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TightEnd
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« Reply #55292 on: September 27, 2013, 05:47:02 PM »

Betfair has 15/1 the field for the Cambridgeshire.

Someone wake the spider up!


Gonna be fun. Got 9 entries in my tracker in the one race. Never even had 5 horses on one day, now got 9 in one bloody race!

Names of the rest of the field please.


:-)
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« Reply #55293 on: September 27, 2013, 05:57:41 PM »

I'm not a fan of the amount of posts and replies regarding the free bets because it just gets in the way of some very good stuff but IMO there is no way they should be removed from the thread. Winning money is winning money at the end of the day and  the bets being placed with the free bet attached are good bets when placed. If we know they are good bets why are we talking about removing them?

would poker players exclude rake back from their figs?

In general tho the thread is getting more like a betting shop where mates meet every day and talk about betting, share thoughts and ideas which is good but  it has really got to the stage now where two people can have a  convo about Spurs or Arsenal baiting and another half page has been taken up. Meanwhile the well thought out tip for Doncaster is now 3 pages back and either forgotten about or nobody has replied.

I tend to read lots of pages at once and it's far more irritating to read about some updates of a footy match that we can all watch if we wanted  than the free bets related post's

Just IMO tho  
« Last Edit: September 27, 2013, 07:30:14 PM by bobby1 » Logged

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tikay
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« Reply #55294 on: September 27, 2013, 06:02:03 PM »

Betfair has 15/1 the field for the Cambridgeshire.

Someone wake the spider up!

The spider says Ascription at 14/1 and 6 places must be massive.  Paddy Power and Skybet.  PP also do best priced guarantee, suggest £20 e/w

PP now down to 12/1 with PP, & they will permit me £3.21 EW.

Is there a Plan B?
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« Reply #55295 on: September 27, 2013, 06:03:31 PM »

Betfair has 15/1 the field for the Cambridgeshire.

Someone wake the spider up!


Gonna be fun. Got 9 entries in my tracker in the one race. Never even had 5 horses on one day, now got 9 in one bloody race!

Names of the rest of the field please.


:-)


You aint wrong. More I back in a race the less chance I have it seems!
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« Reply #55296 on: September 27, 2013, 06:04:32 PM »

Betfair has 15/1 the field for the Cambridgeshire.

Someone wake the spider up!

The spider says Ascription at 14/1 and 6 places must be massive.  Paddy Power and Skybet.  PP also do best priced guarantee, suggest £20 e/w

PP now down to 12/1 with PP, & they will permit me £3.21 EW.

Is there a Plan B?

All I'd say is get picking before Dubai shows up
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Tal
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« Reply #55297 on: September 27, 2013, 06:06:32 PM »

I'm not a fan of the amount of posts and replies regarding the free bets because it just gets in the way of some very good stuff but IMO there is no way they should be removed from the thread. Winning money is winning money at the end of the day and  the bets being placed with the free bet attached are good bets when placed. If we know they are good bets why are we talking about removing them?

would poker players exclude rake back from their figs?

In general tho the thread is getting more like a betting shop where mates meet every day and talk about betting, share thoughts and ideas which is good but  it has really got to the stage now where two people can have a  convo about Spurs or Arsenal baiting and another half page has been taken up. Meanwhile the well thought out tip for Doncaster is now 3 pages back and either forgotten about or nobody has replied.

I tend to read lots of pages at once and it's far more irritating to read about some updates of a footy match that we can all watch if we wanted to than the free bets related bets.

Just IMO tho  

Fair comment and I'm sure others feel the same way about the spurs chat. Will rein it in on that score.
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« Reply #55298 on: September 27, 2013, 06:27:55 PM »

One bookmaker that is has priced up LMA manager of the year, an award voted for by fellow managers and there looks to be a large discrepancy on the book. Yes Fred cannot bet with them, neither can I but hopefully someone finds this of use.

The big 4 managers look priced up for the ice-cream money:
6/4 Pellegrini
5/2 Moyes
4-1 Mourinho
8-1 Wenger
You can get equal or longer odds on any of them clubs to win the title. All 4 managers minimum requirement to win the award must surely be to win the title.
Note:
5/20 awards have gone to that year's title winner.
18/20 winning managers have been from England or Scotland (ok inc once to Joe Kinnear). Wenger has won it twice.
17/20 winners were from the top tier.
That leaves us with 12/20 winners from an underdog EPL side.

The title winners part looks explainable in that they not only have to win it but do it in style.
There's 2 ways we can explain the lack of foreign winners:
1: all 4 divisions vote for the winner, the lower leagues have a higher percentage of home nation managers who are more likely to vote for a home nations winner.
2: There's a bias toward managers who have built up good will over a number of years. That theory is in a similar manner to how Jeff Bridges won an Oscar not for his greatest performance but for a good performance when it was acceptable for him to be given the award after years of building up recognition.


There are 10 British managed underdogs we could make a case for, from Brendan Rodgers at 16-1 up to 66-1 on Chris Houghton.

One name that stands out a mile is Steve Bruce at 50-1. He's generally well liked, has been around long enough, his team are off to an encouraging start and crazily he's the second longest price available.

If Liverpool win the Prem, Rodgers wins manager of the year.

So if you fancy Lolerpool to win it all, backing Rodgers at 16/1 is far better than the scousers at a point less.

Much more chance of Liverpool not winning and Rodgers getting the gong, than the other way round.
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« Reply #55299 on: September 27, 2013, 06:29:27 PM »

Hector, is charnley anytime try scorer at 4/5 a bit of value or not?
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McGlashan
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« Reply #55300 on: September 27, 2013, 06:35:29 PM »

One bookmaker that is has priced up LMA manager of the year, an award voted for by fellow managers and there looks to be a large discrepancy on the book. Yes Fred cannot bet with them, neither can I but hopefully someone finds this of use.

The big 4 managers look priced up for the ice-cream money:
6/4 Pellegrini
5/2 Moyes
4-1 Mourinho
8-1 Wenger
You can get equal or longer odds on any of them clubs to win the title. All 4 managers minimum requirement to win the award must surely be to win the title.
Note:
5/20 awards have gone to that year's title winner.
18/20 winning managers have been from England or Scotland (ok inc once to Joe Kinnear). Wenger has won it twice.
17/20 winners were from the top tier.
That leaves us with 12/20 winners from an underdog EPL side.

The title winners part looks explainable in that they not only have to win it but do it in style.
There's 2 ways we can explain the lack of foreign winners:
1: all 4 divisions vote for the winner, the lower leagues have a higher percentage of home nation managers who are more likely to vote for a home nations winner.
2: There's a bias toward managers who have built up good will over a number of years. That theory is in a similar manner to how Jeff Bridges won an Oscar not for his greatest performance but for a good performance when it was acceptable for him to be given the award after years of building up recognition.


There are 10 British managed underdogs we could make a case for, from Brendan Rodgers at 16-1 up to 66-1 on Chris Houghton.

One name that stands out a mile is Steve Bruce at 50-1. He's generally well liked, has been around long enough, his team are off to an encouraging start and crazily he's the second longest price available.

If Liverpool win the Prem, Rodgers wins manager of the year.

So if you fancy Lolerpool to win it all, backing Rodgers at 16/1 is far better than the scousers at a point less.

Much more chance of Liverpool not winning and Rodgers getting the gong, than the other way round.

Exactly, there are so many angles on this market. Pool are 6-1 for a top 2 finish, if they just manage the 2nd place part then Rodgers at 16-1 is an outstanding candidate for MOTY.
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Doobs
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« Reply #55301 on: September 27, 2013, 06:41:58 PM »

Betfair has 15/1 the field for the Cambridgeshire.

Someone wake the spider up!

The spider says Ascription at 14/1 and 6 places must be massive.  Paddy Power and Skybet.  PP also do best priced guarantee, suggest £20 e/w

PP now down to 12/1 with PP, & they will permit me £3.21 EW.

Is there a Plan B?

No plan B.  whilst probably still a tiny bit of value, not really worth it for £3 e/w.
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Most of the bets placed so far seem more like hopeful punts rather than value spots
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« Reply #55302 on: September 27, 2013, 07:14:40 PM »

I think for Charnley to be value at that price you would have to expect Wigan to score 5 tries and I don't think that I like that. I am envisaging an 18-14 score, but clearly he should be favourite but I don't think anyone should be that short in this match.
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Marky147
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« Reply #55303 on: September 27, 2013, 07:35:25 PM »

Betfair has 15/1 the field for the Cambridgeshire.

Someone wake the spider up!

The spider says Ascription at 14/1 and 6 places must be massive.  Paddy Power and Skybet.  PP also do best priced guarantee, suggest £20 e/w

PP now down to 12/1 with PP, & they will permit me £3.21 EW.

Is there a Plan B?

No plan B.  whilst probably still a tiny bit of value, not really worth it for £3 e/w.

If the ground keeps drying, Ascription may not run.
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mondatoo
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« Reply #55304 on: September 27, 2013, 07:35:52 PM »

I'm not a fan of the amount of posts and replies regarding the free bets because it just gets in the way of some very good stuff but IMO there is no way they should be removed from the thread. Winning money is winning money at the end of the day and  the bets being placed with the free bet attached are good bets when placed. If we know they are good bets why are we talking about removing them?

would poker players exclude rake back from their figs?

In general tho the thread is getting more like a betting shop where mates meet every day and talk about betting, share thoughts and ideas which is good but  it has really got to the stage now where two people can have a  convo about Spurs or Arsenal baiting and another half page has been taken up. Meanwhile the well thought out tip for Doncaster is now 3 pages back and either forgotten about or nobody has replied.

I tend to read lots of pages at once and it's far more irritating to read about some updates of a footy match that we can all watch if we wanted to than the free bets related post's

Just IMO tho  

Don't want to just seem like I'm making negative posts itt so I will firstly say this is one of the best threads there's ever been on here for sure, plus I don't post much as I'm a massive ice cream.

But just to expand on what Bobby has said, I do feel whilst it is a great thread it is possibly having a negative effect on the rest of the forum, to the point this thread is almost becoming the forum, there's a ton of posts itt that aren't relative to it, for instance it was posted in here about Jeff's bink, the problem with that is, assuming I'm not the only one who does this, there soon becomes 10+ pages to be caught up on so I just skip to the current point and may well be missing other topics as opposed to just what bets were placed that day.

Like Bobby, it's just me opinion, and don't have any ideas to make it better, just putting it out there.
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