Tips for Tikay

[Tal]

Gumede dances tonight. Am doing reports and Tal-esque commentaries on the SCD thread so as to keep the traffic to a minimum

[BigAdz]

Hey mate.

Not saying you are wrong at all, you just seemed to be asking why the prices seemed so big in the face of those scores.

Only an opinion as to why you can get 4/6, not a neg on your selections

[doubleup]

Based on their last 20 rounds Luiten would be a 1.75 chance BUT (small sample warning). Luiten's best round this year has been his 3rd round, McGinleys worst round has been his 3rd round.  McGinley hasn't played much this year and when he has his first rounds have been the best - so it seems he is short of match practice and perhaps Ryder cup distractions affect his game.

On the the last 20 rounds comparison (bit tricky as Kaymer has been playing in the US, so I've tried to allow for this) Kaymer should be about 1.8 - his worst round this year has been his 3rd by some way.

So I'd go with Luiten but swerve Kaymer.



ps Fred can't get on with Jam Stanes anyhoo

[redarmi]

Based on their last 20 rounds Luiten would be a 1.75 chance BUT (small sample warning). Luiten's best round this year has been his 3rd round, McGinleys worst round has been his 3rd round.  McGinley hasn't played much this year and when he has his first rounds have been the best - so it seems he is short of match practice and perhaps Ryder cup distractions affect his game.

On the the last 20 rounds comparison (bit tricky as Kaymer has been playing in the US, so I've tried to allow for this) Kaymer should be about 1.8 - his worst round this year has been his 3rd by some way.

So I'd go with Luiten but swerve Kaymer.



ps Fred can't get on with Jam Stanes anyhoo

Is there any logical reason why this would be the case rather than just variance?  I have seen it bandied about before that certain players are better first round bets than tournament bets and I kinda get that if they are bottlers but I don't really get why a player would be better in, say the 3rd round than than the 2nd round and therefore more likely to be a bet at that point in a matchup.

[BigAdz]

Strictly.

We got the best dancer, I suspect, by a mile, but earlier concerns about her cocky attitude will probably be her undoing I reckon.

Into 6/4 though, superb bet/sweat ahead!

[Tal]

Strictly.

We got the best dancer, I suspect, by a mile, but earlier concerns about her cocky attitude will probably be her undoing I reckon.

Into 6/4 though, superb bet/sweat ahead!

Permission to step out of line and ask whether we might lay? How much shorter is she realistically going to get in the next six weeks while all the unlikelies are getting removed?

She absolutely pwned tonight.

Susannah Reid was very promising. She has a very good partner, who I have no doubt will be popular with the viewers.

[TightEnd]

Strictly.

We got the best dancer, I suspect, by a mile, but earlier concerns about her cocky attitude will probably be her undoing I reckon.

Into 6/4 though, superb bet/sweat ahead!

Permission to step out of line and ask whether we might lay? How much shorter is she realistically going to get in the next six weeks while all the unlikelies are getting removed?

She absolutely pwned tonight.

Susannah Reid was very promising. She has a very good partner, who I have no doubt will be popular with the viewers.

I would agree with this. clearly terrific but it must be in the price?

would have reid/fullarton portfolio against her at i reckon. Hollyoaks chap looks the only bloke capable of giving it a run


Fantastic spot though by Jeff, wonderful bet and nice position to be in

[doubleup]

Based on their last 20 rounds Luiten would be a 1.75 chance BUT (small sample warning). Luiten's best round this year has been his 3rd round, McGinleys worst round has been his 3rd round.  McGinley hasn't played much this year and when he has his first rounds have been the best - so it seems he is short of match practice and perhaps Ryder cup distractions affect his game.

On the the last 20 rounds comparison (bit tricky as Kaymer has been playing in the US, so I've tried to allow for this) Kaymer should be about 1.8 - his worst round this year has been his 3rd by some way.

So I'd go with Luiten but swerve Kaymer.



ps Fred can't get on with Jam Stanes anyhoo

Is there any logical reason why this would be the case rather than just variance?  I have seen it bandied about before that certain players are better first round bets than tournament bets and I kinda get that if they are bottlers but I don't really get why a player would be better in, say the 3rd round than than the 2nd round and therefore more likely to be a bet at that point in a matchup.

Obviously it could be but golf is such a mind game that I'm always inclined to believe that its more than variance.

Out of 21 tournaments this year Kaymers scores per round relative to the average round are -.92  -1.39 +.91 -1.12

Even his best 10 scores per round are -3.4  -3.7  -1.31  -2.85  - so its not that he has had a couple of bad scores dragging down the average.

[rinswun]

Not sure I'd place too much on 3rd round scoring averages without knowing their relative positions to the leaders.

Often when players just make the cut and legitimately have no shot of winning, they'll race round in 2 hours, content to free up their Saturday's with15grand in the bank for making the cut whilst not legitimately trying to put a score together to move up to 30th to earn an extra 10grand. The fellas at the top end of the leaderboard know that a shot here or there will cost them 25/50k a piece so tend to take things more seriously. Scoring average by round is a slightly deceiving stat in this sense.

[aaron1867]

If anyone can get on man Utd to win to nil on coral v wear brim for £50, appreciate it and ship back tomorrow morning as its not letting me do it on mobile

[claypole]

I like the Steve Bruce bet.....I am an ice cream so that means it won't get punted

[redarmi]

An interesting footy bet stateside in the MLS this weekend.  DC United travel to Toronto FC and they are the bottom two teams in their division with Toronto a touch better than DC and the game is priced on that basis with Toronto Evens and 21/20 in a couple of spots but DC have the US Open Cup final on Tuesday and that has been pretty much their focus since they reached the final and I just read that their coach Ben Olsen plans on playing a weakened side.  Team news is more important in the MLS than other football because the salary cap means that squads aren't as deep.  Think 60 quid or so is in order at 21/20 on Toronto although they are missing Ryan Nelsen who is obviously quite important I still cant see it going off odds against and when the syndicates get stuck in tomorrow they could go off very short.

[TheDazzler]

If anyone can get on man Utd to win to nil on coral v wear brim for £50, appreciate it and ship back tomorrow morning as its not letting me do it on mobile

I've can give you that if you want or I'm happy to keep it. Obviously confirm before the match kicks off I don't want you Kinboshing me
If you can settle up via Stars, that'd be good. I'm in Ireland and I can't bank transfer to UK without a load of extra details.

[TheDazzler]

An interesting footy bet stateside in the MLS this weekend.  DC United travel to Toronto FC and they are the bottom two teams in their division with Toronto a touch better than DC and the game is priced on that basis with Toronto Evens and 21/20 in a couple of spots but DC have the US Open Cup final on Tuesday and that has been pretty much their focus since they reached the final and I just read that their coach Ben Olsen plans on playing a weakened side.  Team news is more important in the MLS than other football because the salary cap means that squads aren't as deep.  Think 60 quid or so is in order at 21/20 on Toronto although they are missing Ryan Nelsen who is obviously quite important I still cant see it going off odds against and when the syndicates get stuck in tomorrow they could go off very short.

If Fred misses this, I've got 40 euros on it @ 21/20. Fred can have half if he wants.

[aaron1867]

If anyone can get on man Utd to win to nil on coral v wear brim for £50, appreciate it and ship back tomorrow morning as its not letting me do it on mobile

I've can give you that if you want or I'm happy to keep it. Obviously confirm before the match kicks off I don't want you Kinboshing me
If you can settle up via Stars, that'd be good. I'm in Ireland and I can't bank transfer to UK without a load of extra details.

Ah, I can't settle up via stars, only bank transfer

However, just been able to get on but at 13/10. 

But thanks Anyway appreciate it