Tips for Tikay

[tikay]

Morning all.

Yup Tighty, looks like I was well adrift on that one. Did expect different partners tbf, and didn't even save on my new bestest friend either...apols.

FINAL WARNING.

No apologies here when bets go South.

You have been warned. Explain, if you can, but don't apologise. We is grown ups.*

* Exceptions apply. 

[tikay]

Our boy Marcus Mariota is 5/4 in two places and 2/1 in the third of the three books to update their Heismann Trophy prices. We have a score at 25/1, I personally have quite a bit more. Defo gettin a sweat with this one....

USA Today had a piece on it yesterday, seems about now is when the men get sorted from the boys. They still have last year's winner Manziel, who is available at 10/1, as number one, tho they acknowledge this will change http://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/ncaaf/2013/10/01/football-four-week-5-heisman-rankings/2899459/

I asked this before, but does anyone know of some kind of programme that collates all your betting accounts with forward bets etc so u know where they are and where u have money, or do u need a Mere spready for that?

Wow, we have £20 @ 25/1 about a current 5/4 or 2/1 shot? Incred!

Help me though please, because I read the article, & these Stats don't seem to explain why Mariota is the jolly over Manziel. And how come Manziel is 10/1, with such stats? Should we have a saver on Manziel?

Manziel

100-of-140 for 1,489 yards;   

14 touchdowns,

four interceptions;

48 carries for 314 yards, three touchdowns

Mariota

60-of-107 for 1,003 yards;

nine touchdowns,

zero interceptions;

21 carries for 295 yards, five touchdowns

So Manziel's stats are (or seem to me to be) miles better than our chap. The only caveat I saw is that Oregon are so good, they ease off in the 2nd half.

Here are the prices.....


http://www.oddschecker.com/american-football/college-football-specials/heisman-trophy/winner

So, if we stand to win £500 for £25 on Mariota, should we also consider a little bet on Manziel @ 10/1?

PS - Thanks for the Update. Exactly what we need on these weirdo funny bets.

[tikay]

Our boy Marcus Mariota is 5/4 in two places and 2/1 in the third of the three books to update their Heismann Trophy prices. We have a score at 25/1, I personally have quite a bit more. Defo gettin a sweat with this one....

USA Today had a piece on it yesterday, seems about now is when the men get sorted from the boys. They still have last year's winner Manziel, who is available at 10/1, as number one, tho they acknowledge this will change http://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/ncaaf/2013/10/01/football-four-week-5-heisman-rankings/2899459/

I asked this before, but does anyone know of some kind of programme that collates all your betting accounts with forward bets etc so u know where they are and where u have money, or do u need a Mere spready for that?

If you drop Mere a PM, he is (usually, unless he has one of his grumpy days) always ready to make a little Spreadsheet for you, & design it to your specification. Scores of folks have asked him, & he generally obliges.

[Matt.NFFC.]

Brighton v Forest today.....

Not a fan of FGS bets, but once again I think there is value in having Andy Reid FGS at a rather large 15/1.

This came up trumps in the week v Charlton, as our rotund friend takes free kicks and penalties and I think the correct price is around 9/1.

At around 15/1 this should be done every week lol.

Suggest a small £5 at 15/1 if you can get it.

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/championship/brighton-v-nottingham-forest/first-goalscorer

EDIT:  without checking my research, I think Reid has scored first in 3 of our games so far this season.

Reidy is basically running the show for us this year, and without him we are distinctly average.

[tikay]

I think we should also have Lewis onside in the Darts @ 10/1 with Boyles for the Grand Prix.
Stand out price and the fallback of stake returned if Mvg wins(obv Fred would need someone else to place this).
Lewis is in good form and has a good draw.
Recommend £20

I notice Boyles are going first 4 1/4odds in tomorrows player championship 9, hopefully more will follow suit as I lost count of the Players I had at big prices falling at the final hurdle.

Thanks Snowy. As you noted, the "stake returned" is helpful, but we already used it. If someone has £20 worth spare, then I'd take it in a shot.

However, the price is standout anyway, & you reckon the draw is good, so we have had a "normal" £20 @ 10/1.

We should have a fun week next week with this Darts thing.

BET PLACED

[tikay]

Brighton v Forest today.....

Not a fan of FGS bets, but once again I think there is value in having Andy Reid FGS at a rather large 15/1.

This came up trumps in the week v Charlton, as our rotund friend takes free kicks and penalties and I think the correct price is around 9/1.

At around 15/1 this should be done every week lol.

Suggest a small £5 at 15/1 if you can get it.

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/championship/brighton-v-nottingham-forest/first-goalscorer

EDIT:  without checking my research, I think Reid has scored first in 3 of our games so far this season.

Reidy is basically running the show for us this year, and without him we are distinctly average.

Thanks Matt, if you have your numbers right, that is a terrific spot for the Fred regulars. Not so much for Fred, as I don't appear to have functioning accounts with 888 or UNIBET.

Anyway, rather naughtily, I've had £5 @ 12/1 (don't all shout, I know, I know...) with Bet Victor @ 12/1.

BET PLACED

[Doobs]

Hills are doing their mobile offer on Channel 4 today.  Nothing leaps out at the minute other than Caspat Netscher in the 2.50 at Redcar at 9/4. 

Morning Mr Doobs, & thanks.

I actually had a look myself last night to try & suss these myself, but it did not work so well. I just did the Ascot card, & only found one "qualifying race", the Cumberland Lodge Stages (sponsored by Grosvenor Casinos of all people).

7 runners, Group 3 race, yes, that looks the sort of race where I could find a bet that fitted the system. Until I saw the top 4 in the betting were.....

100/30

7/2

7/2

4/1


Next case.

I think I am becoming a bit more selective, but I am sure Hills are a bit wiser now.  When this started they'd be best price on some, and you'd get the offer and best price guarantee on top.  Now you seem to get 3/1 Hills, 7/2 elsewhere and nearly 4/1 on Betfair.  The best price guarantee will probably save you, but I don't tend to put them up as it is a bit of hassle for small margins.  Off thread I still do a few of the marginal ones.

[Matt.NFFC.]

Brighton v Forest today.....

Not a fan of FGS bets, but once again I think there is value in having Andy Reid FGS at a rather large 15/1.

This came up trumps in the week v Charlton, as our rotund friend takes free kicks and penalties and I think the correct price is around 9/1.

At around 15/1 this should be done every week lol.

Suggest a small £5 at 15/1 if you can get it.

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/championship/brighton-v-nottingham-forest/first-goalscorer

EDIT:  without checking my research, I think Reid has scored first in 3 of our games so far this season.

Reidy is basically running the show for us this year, and without him we are distinctly average.

Thanks Matt, if you have your numbers right, that is a terrific spot for the Fred regulars. Not so much for Fred, as I don't appear to have functioning accounts with 888 or UNIBET.

Anyway, rather naughtily, I've had £5 @ 12/1 (don't all shout, I know, I know...) with Bet Victor @ 12/1.

BET PLACED

Yes, deffo scored first v Watford, Wigan and Charlton.

[tikay]

I think we should also have Lewis onside in the Darts @ 10/1 with Boyles for the Grand Prix.
Stand out price and the fallback of stake returned if Mvg wins(obv Fred would need someone else to place this).
Lewis is in good form and has a good draw.
Recommend £20

I notice Boyles are going first 4 1/4odds in tomorrows player championship 9, hopefully more will follow suit as I lost count of the Players I had at big prices falling at the final hurdle.

Anyone got any suggestions for this, please?

Is it a short format 2 day thing?

http://www.oddschecker.com/darts/weekend-darts-events/players-championship-9/winner

[tikay]

Yay, up to date at last, I think.

Been a very quiet week here, not sure why, but I've been way too busy elsewhere anyway, ditto Tighty, so not a disaster.

Am around all today, & until 6pm tomorrow evening, after which I gotta go to work.

[Doobs]

Those with functioning bet365 accounts should back Intello in the Arc each way.  You get 11/1 which is bang on Betfair and they pay quarter first 4, which is very generous indeed.  He has a good draw, handles the ground, though there may be stamina doubts, as he has never done the distance, though his breeding isn't bad.

We'll get the 365 cash back on Novellist as it was NRNB.

[tikay]

Daily Report

Loss on Month £68-00

Outstanding Bets £3095.64

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Aia1Hxq-NDNWdFk3UmlTSXMzTjRBTVNfOWRndVFsZHc&usp=drive_web#gid=30

No bets were completed yesterday but one mea culpa. I noticed a horse at Pontefract Trade Secret £15 at 14-1 on 26 Sept had not been settled on the spreadsheet, so I have done so now as a loser. I assume I would have heard if it wasn't!?

Perhaps Mere can place it into September if he sees this?

In the Presidents Cup Golf we have Hunter Mahan top US player. He was part of the only US Pair to lose on day One and in Day 2 foursomes his partnership was beaten 4 and 3

In the start of the ALDS, game one of 5, the Rays were thrashed 12-2 at Boston. Games 2 and 3 are now back in Tampa Bay before the series ends, if necessary, back in Boston

Things not looking too good then

A big weekend ahead too, with the Arc and Strictly come dancing positions to settle...as well as hoping for a safety car in Korea

There are no fewer than four free bets on the Arc, Novellist, Orfevre, Ocovango and Ruler of the World, and only mone non free bet, on Novellist for total exposure of £12.
The usual Football and NFL positions will see over 40 bets progress for better or worse over the weekend

Its early days in the month, but it feels like its been a tough couple of weeks albeit midweek volumes on the thread have been quite low

Incredible value there, for £12, though Novelist is now a NR, even so, what a great position we have.

Also....yeah, Tampa Bay need a bit of run good, but what a ride we've had on the MLB this season.

The last few weeks have been a bit rough, proper downswing territory, but we've escaped without damage. If we can finish October in the blue, that'll be 6 straight profitable months. If.....

[tikay]

Those with functioning bet365 accounts should back Intello in the Arc each way.  You get 11/1 which is bang on Betfair and they pay quarter first 4, which is very generous indeed.  He has a good draw, handles the ground, though there may be stamina doubts, as he has never done the distance, though his breeding isn't bad.

We'll get the 365 cash back on Novellist as it was NRNB.

Thanks Doobs, Tighty please note.

As I just wrote, we have an incredible position in the Arc.

I will go see if Bet365 will lay me anything above £1 on Intello. 

[tikay]

Those with functioning bet365 accounts should back Intello in the Arc each way.  You get 11/1 which is bang on Betfair and they pay quarter first 4, which is very generous indeed.  He has a good draw, handles the ground, though there may be stamina doubts, as he has never done the distance, though his breeding isn't bad.

We'll get the 365 cash back on Novellist as it was NRNB.

Ha! They offered up £2.73 EW, but we'd get £30+ back, and we can't turn down £30, even if it is relatively small, it would recover our entire Arc portfolio..

The quest to back the entire Arc field continues.

BET PLACED

[Doobs]

Those with functioning bet365 accounts should back Intello in the Arc each way.  You get 11/1 which is bang on Betfair and they pay quarter first 4, which is very generous indeed.  He has a good draw, handles the ground, though there may be stamina doubts, as he has never done the distance, though his breeding isn't bad.

We'll get the 365 cash back on Novellist as it was NRNB.

Ha! They offered up £2.73 EW, but we'd get £30+ back, and we can't turn down £30, even if it is relatively small.

The quest to back the entire Arc field continues.

BET PLACED

Covering the whole field for £5.46 is not so bad.