Did Thread get on Tiger Cliff for the Ces when I suggested it?
We seem to be drawn in the car park, and I have mentally torn my ticket into a thousand little pieces
A little bit rash before a 2 miles 2 furlong race?
I'm on a train and can't find the relevant stat, but horses drawn in the outside 10 stalls in the Ces have an absolutely woeful record.
I thought he was definitely a group horse in the making when he won the Ebor.
But from 30 he'll need to be an Ascot Gold Cup winner to triumph.
Not totally impossible, but unlikely.
From his column tonight -
Potential Cup horse Tiger one to follow over a cliffThe Betfred Cesarewitch (3.50 Newmarket) has a distinctly top-heavy look to it and the horse who stands out, despite his huge weight, has to be Ebor winner Tiger Cliff.
It is clearly tough to win a staying handicap on the Flat giving lumps of weight away, but Lady Cecil’s four-year-old is still unexposed, stays well and won’t mind how much rain there is, so at 12-1 with Paddy Power he looks the bet.
In the Ebor at York Tiger Cliff never looked like landing the gamble that developed on him until the dying strides, but he rocketed home once Tom Queally found some daylight and in another furlong or so would have won by a long way.
His stamina is proven as he finished well in the Ascot Stakes over 2m4f, and he likes this track, having landed a hot handicap here at the start of the season. So the only thing not to like is his stall 30 draw.
Ideally you’d want to be around 20 places lower, but Never Can Tell won from a wider stall two years ago and if the rain arrives it wouldn’t be a surprise if the runners headed middle to stands’ side, which would negate the perceived draw bias to some extent.
Tiger Cliff has the potential to be a Cup horse next season, and if that’s the case he will be hard to beat.
The big dangers may well be Pallasator and Smoky Hill as the rain may have scuppered the chances of Domination.
Sir Mark Prescott has targeted this race for Pallasator for some time, so provided he stays he must be on the premises, while Smoky Hill is clearly well handicapped on his Pattern form in France.
A month ago I suggested backing Domination and Big Easy, and while they both have chances, neither has enjoyed much luck in the past few days.
However, if the ground stays good Domination has an excellent chance as he has improved enormously over hurdles and Charles Byrnes has targeted him for the race all season.
Big Easy won’t mind the ground and will stay, but he has drawn the coffin box in stall 36. That might not be so bad as first seemed likely, but he would certainly have a better chance if drawn six rather than 36.
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