Tips for Tikay

[tikay]

Morning Mr T.

More oktas down here than you can swing a cat at.

Will look at rugby next but first there is a tennis bet I like. Later on in the Stockholm semi final Benoit Paire, a CESM who I refer to as Bennyboy when giving vocal support, plays Dimitrov. They have met twice before with Paire winning them both. He also did me a huge favour yesterday when he beat Raonic which is the best result by either player in a long time. I can't have Dimitrov as favourite in this so suggest we back Paire.

Bennyboy to beat Dmitrov £24 @ 11/8 with Ladbrokes.

Thanks hector, sorry to hear you are oktas-laden. Very impressed with "oktas", it is my word of the week.

We are safely aboard the Benny Express. 

What did you think of Saracens last night? I must say, I thought they were a shade lucky not to lose by more, the Frenchies looked rather good to me. That big Beast chap who Tighty told us about was well worth watching. Best not argue with him though, I'd say.

[Chompy]

Looking like the Mukhadram trade is flopping worse than me in a GUKPT side event.

We have £80 @ 12-1 for the trade. Suggest laying £60 @ 16, which means a loss of £20 if he loses, and a profit of £20 if he wins.

Mukhadram is currently 17 to Lay.

Still proceed exactly as above, or change the numbers?

Yuh, 17 fine, or 18 if needs be. Just time to get out of this one.

Lay the same amount, £60?

Yussir

[tikay]

Steven Gerrard is currently on 99 premier league goals, 10-1 fgs v Newcastle today.

Worth an ew bet ?

Thanks Mr Fan.

I'm not sure there is a correlation between those two facts, but if 10/1 is deemed a reasonable price, happy to dabble.

Views, anyone?

Probably a bit sentimental thinking, he obv gives his all every match.
But we do know he's in form and high spirits and will bust a gut to join the 100 club.

Will wait for opinion.

I've had a little muse on this, & two things struck me.

1) He has scored 99 goals in 445 games for Liverpool. Not all Premier League games of course, but presumably his strike rate would not be a lot different. So he scores once every 4.6 games, approx. So how can he be 10/1? What obvious fact am I missing?

2) Bet365 would permit me £5 EW @ 10/1, or £20 WIN @ 10/1. Strikes me as a little odd, that.

Lets see what the boys say, but I'll be taking a bit of that myself, I think, probably just before someone points out the flaw in my illogocal logic.

[Chompy]

^

He scores once every 4.6 games but not all those would have been the first goal.

[tikay]

^

He scores once every 4.6 games but not all those would have been the first goal.

Yes yes, obviously I knew that, just testing. Allowing for the EW terms, the price is about right, then. I really don't think the "100th" thing makes much difference.

Be right back, off to dip my head in a bucket of poo.  

[tikay]

After losing Dhawan early, India are 61/2 in 10 overs. I assume we want them to knock up a big score, right?

[TightEnd]

Daily Report

Loss on Month £103.93

Outstanding bets £2978.66

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Aia1Hxq-NDNWdFk3UmlTSXMzTjRBTVNfOWRndVFsZHc&usp=drive_web#gid=30

A loss of £90 yesterday. Saracens lost to Toulouse by a point, no complaints there the power off the Toulouse bench did for us - thats having no salary cap for you - two Haydock horses lost and Roma beat Napoli 2-0 in a first versus second Serie A clash

Today, well it already looks busy. Presumably the Mukhadram price has drifted because it is assumed he won't like the ground? Not sure thats true, but anyway. Morandi has firmed a touch though

Also in action today....

George Bailey

Hull City, Cardiff City and Kidderminster on handicaps

Liverpool and Southampton to finish bottom half

Arsenal to finish top three

Watford, Reading and Barnsley

Tranmere

Nugent-Vokes-Ings

Assombolonga and Bamford

Rodriguez, Bent, Navas

Hannah Barratt  and Natalie Gumede

Marcus Mariotta


My notebook is poised.

[tikay]

Looking like the Mukhadram trade is flopping worse than me in a GUKPT side event.

We have £80 @ 12-1 for the trade. Suggest laying £60 @ 16, which means a loss of £20 if he loses, and a profit of £20 if he wins.

Mukhadram is currently 17 to Lay.

Still proceed exactly as above, or change the numbers?

Yuh, 17 fine, or 18 if needs be. Just time to get out of this one.

DONE.

Laid £60 @ 16.

BET PLACED

[Tal]

Doobs is on Soccer AM this morning

[pleno1]

Is there a reason tips for tikay doesn't include poker staking?

[tikay]

Doobs is on Soccer AM this morning

Doobs is Michael Duberry in real life?

[Tal]

Doobs is on Soccer AM this morning

Doobs is Michael Duberry in real life?

It's not like he made a secret of it when choosing his username

[redarmi]

Is there a reason tips for tikay doesn't include poker staking?

Presumably the same reason we don't buy shares, speculate in currencies or stake people to stand overnight and buy Jimmy Choos.

[BigAdz]

While all eyes are on Ascot I am keen on the 2.35 at Cheltenham

Picking a Jonjo horse is always fraught with "issues", is today the day etc!

A horse I watched a lot last year was Johns Spirit, it ran some cracking races but looked like it would be better this year. He was running a blinder at the festival until he walked through 4 out, but still finished well. Jonjos all seem to be trying and are in good form. I expect this horse to keep progressing and end up off a much higher mark by the end of the year

Recommend £20 win @ Sportingbet 10-1

in same race, one to have Chompy rolfing on his kitchen lino. Have a saver(£5) on Tartak at 14s @ Ladbrokes. His handicap mark is so low. It also ran a real stormer in this race last year and with a new trainer, I hope to see another big run.

[tikay]

Is there a reason tips for tikay doesn't include poker staking?

Ha!

Nobody ever recommended buying a stake, I suppose.

There'd be plenty of reasons not to do it though. Fred is about value, & there's precious little of that available, & there are only the most tenuous means of "measuring" Staking value.

Risk of non-payment has to be priced in, too, not everyone pays up.

A closed or limited market, too, half the idea of Fred is that we can all get a bit of the action, & sweat it together, but if we started buying stakes most of Fred would be excluded due to limited availability. No point doing that.

Eggs & apples really.