Tips for Tikay

[Doobs]

I'm not sure if it was widely known, or mentioned on the show tonight?

 but Ben Cohen is profoundly deaf, and is in Strictly come dancing..having to dance steps in time. Quite a feat really

We know the Mens competitors aren't the strongest - the top contestants are all female

Feel sure the deafness/scale of his achievement can't harm the potential top bloke bet. He only has the excruciatingly dull Hollyoaks actor to beat.

Someone pop the top bloke prices up when the market re-forms

We've prevaricated over this bet for a fortnight now


Meanwhile Gumball and Sophie Ellis Cold as Ice are 7/4 joint in the outright http://www.oddschecker.com/tv/strictly-come-dancing/winner

I thought we had backed Ben?  I know I did.  I wouldn't back him after tonight, Hollyoaks looked to have a bad night to me, and still rightfully outscored him.  Ben just looks wooden to me, and all the ones above him in the betting look far ahead.  He looks plenty short enough in the overall to my eyes.  

I think he was tipped at 6/1 or so, at that price he doesn't look bad value, but  given the overall price looks so short, I can't see us even getting 3/1.  

Opened 3/1 with Ladbrokes, who have also gone biggest overall 20/1.  Patrick 14/1 in the same market.

[JaffaCake]

Yeh Tikay was a bit confuzzled on big Ben, he was askin tonight if he was kicked out yet, think he mixed up the elimination bet from a few weeks ago with my rec for top man, which he never got on. Think the price will have gone now, he was 4/1 best before tonight, not watched the show yet.

I knew Ben was deaf, was mentioned on his first show too, was one of the reasons I put a line through him to win, but also one I thought might be good for the top man bet given the lack of comp, I meant to mention that but looked at my post and didn't.

I noticed on twitter this week he was off visiting his uncle george (the 1966 world cup winner), not sure if that was for this week's strictly or just a random visit. Also talking about how his father was murdered this week, all points towards a good public reaction. He's not really that good at dancing is he, that's the main drawback. He looks good in the ones where he can just twirl the bird round and pick her up and chuck her round, probably not so good in the traditional ones.

PS that was the first time at the dogs in 10 years. Happy to wait at least that long til the next...

[JaffaCake]

Suarez is as low as 5/2 in spots....http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/premier-league/top-goalscorer

Ings into 8/1 http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/championship/top-goalscorer


While everyone is away at the dogs, I am sorely tempted to take the Suarez green out, lay it back and run shot to nothing

5/2 has to be too short?

Happy to take advice as to a strategy to green out and a price

We have £20 e/w at 20-1

My gut feel is 5/2 is too short.

Golden Boot is a competitive heat this year

Suarez, Sturridge, Giroud, RVP, Aguero, Negredo? Benteke? just off the top of my head

Suarez's great start has seen the price contract very quickly and perhaps provides the opportunity to do it

I made the mistake of mentioning greening out to Camel earlier, he nearly threw me out the pub.

I think what he'd say on this point is if u feel strongly 5/2 is a lay, u know what to do, ignore the first bet or any mentioning of green, just lay that price like any other bet

[Longy]

Heisman wrap up

This is a 2 horse race now imo Mariota vs Winston. Got to admit I am worried our boy is not going to be flavour of the month.

Today:

Mariota struggled early in oregon 42-14 (brutal cover for UCLA +24 bettors) but improved greatly in the 2nd half, though the keys to the ducks win were the run game and defensively. Mariota had yet to throw an interception this year and not since mid November last year, this is PAC12 record.

Winston's Florida state thumped North Carolina state, haven't seen the game and Winston's stats are solid from the game.

The heisman race is running parallel to the national championship race, Florida state, oregon and Alabama are the clear elite. Pick 2 from 3 for the national championship game.

[pleno1]

Have you bet on newcastle Sunderland?

[Doobs]

Have you bet on newcastle Sunderland?

You think the team in red stripes look a bit big?  Draws have been more common in this Derby than the 12/5 suggests in the last 10 years or so, but it is very much meh, sample size.  I have backed it to get my ice cream quota up at Bet365.

I can be fairly sure Tikay hasn't got a bet on.

[Doobs]

I think BetVictor have made a mistake in their league 1 top goalscorer market.  Nahki Wells has missed 4.5 games through injury so a few have gone past him.  He is still prolific, and is only 2 from the lead.  He almost scored yesterday when he came on for the 2nd half but was denied by a good keeper.

He is now 20/1, he should be half that or less.  As we have that big outstanding book we want to reduce, guess we'll have to go low, so suggest a tenner e/w.  I am about to put a bet on, so the price could go.  Suggest it is ok right down to 12/1.

[Doobs]

Suarez is as low as 5/2 in spots....http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/premier-league/top-goalscorer

Ings into 8/1 http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/championship/top-goalscorer


While everyone is away at the dogs, I am sorely tempted to take the Suarez green out, lay it back and run shot to nothing

5/2 has to be too short?

Happy to take advice as to a strategy to green out and a price

We have £20 e/w at 20-1

My gut feel is 5/2 is too short.

Golden Boot is a competitive heat this year

Suarez, Sturridge, Giroud, RVP, Aguero, Negredo? Benteke? just off the top of my head

Suarez's great start has seen the price contract very quickly and perhaps provides the opportunity to do it

I made the mistake of mentioning greening out to Camel earlier, he nearly threw me out the pub.

I think what he'd say on this point is if u feel strongly 5/2 is a lay, u know what to do, ignore the first bet or any mentioning of green, just lay that price like any other bet

It is 7/2 to lay right now. 

[Chompy]

I'd wait with Suarez tbh, leave it until Chrimbo.

[hector62]

Morning Mr T.

In today's rugby union Newcastle host London Irish. I started off wanting to go for low points as the Newcastle pitch is the boggiest around and they have a very poor try scoring threat. However I have come to the conclusion that the value bet is to back Loodon Irish at 6/4. Newcastle have scored only 53 points in 5 games so far, so I think if London Irish can score 20 points they will win. The Irish have a real threat in their backs and have scored tries against far better teams than Newcastle.

Suggest £20 London Irish @ 6/4 with betfair.

[Tal]

Vettel is weighed in.

Weighed in.

[BigAdz]

What a pleasure it was to meet so many Fredites last night.

True punting pro's like Tal, Jaffa, Ed and Tikay passing on pearls of wisdom to Neil, Camel, Bobby1 and Dubai as they strive to move from novice punter mode.

Great night and hope you all enjoy the 49ers kick ass later.

Look forward to the next one.

Special Thank you to Keith for organising the whole thing never easy

[Doobs]

Is +14.5 for the Jaguars at 20/21 good enough for this afternoon's game?  I am mug money at NFL before anyone assumes this is a must bet.

[Doobs]

Yeh Tikay was a bit confuzzled on big Ben, he was askin tonight if he was kicked out yet, think he mixed up the elimination bet from a few weeks ago with my rec for top man, which he never got on. Think the price will have gone now, he was 4/1 best before tonight, not watched the show yet.

I knew Ben was deaf, was mentioned on his first show too, was one of the reasons I put a line through him to win, but also one I thought might be good for the top man bet given the lack of comp, I meant to mention that but looked at my post and didn't.

I noticed on twitter this week he was off visiting his uncle george (the 1966 world cup winner), not sure if that was for this week's strictly or just a random visit. Also talking about how his father was murdered this week, all points towards a good public reaction. He's not really that good at dancing is he, that's the main drawback. He looks good in the ones where he can just twirl the bird round and pick her up and chuck her round, probably not so good in the traditional ones.

PS that was the first time at the dogs in 10 years. Happy to wait at least that long til the next...

Looks like Ben is 3/1 best this morning.  I have put a small amount on Patrick at 16/1 in the same market, it just seems more likely to be value?  I realise he had a bit of a setback last night and hence may not be popular with the voters, but us still in it. 

[tikay]

Morning Mr T.

In today's rugby union Newcastle host London Irish. I started off wanting to go for low points as the Newcastle pitch is the boggiest around and they have a very poor try scoring threat. However I have come to the conclusion that the value bet is to back Loodon Irish at 6/4. Newcastle have scored only 53 points in 5 games so far, so I think if London Irish can score 20 points they will win. The Irish have a real threat in their backs and have scored tries against far better teams than Newcastle.

Suggest £20 London Irish @ 6/4 with betfair.

Thanks H, very busy right now, but......

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