Tips for Tikay

[redarmi]

Goal distribution isn't quite as clear cut as you suggest plus an obvious key point its only for 7.45 games which means only 7 games as Zenit kick off earlier.

Yeah - goals become more likely as a game goes on and are less likely when the score is at 0-0.  55% of all goals are scored in the second half of games and that isn't only because there is more injury time played but because of the goals scored before.  I haven't been able to get figures for the first five minutes but last year in the premiership 93 goals were scored in the first ten minutes of games out of 1063 goal altogether so 8.74% of goals.  It seems unlikely that there is a huge difference in distribution between 0-5 and 5-10 minutes so if we halve that then we could expect 4.37% of goals to come in the first 5 minutes.  Sporting Index have the midpoint goals for all the games at 24.2 so if we subtract the Zenit game at 2.5 we get expected goals in all games at 21.7.  21.7*0.0437=0.948 of a goal expected.  If I plug that into my poisson distributor then we could expect a goal 61.35% of the time.  I think this might be a bit high for a couple of reasons.  Firstly, Sporting expect goals buyers so they might be a bit high and possibly the distribution for the first five minutes is a tad lower too but I think it is reasonable to expect that 1/2 no goals is no value at all and probably there is value in the yes.  Just a shame Doobs is so much smarter and quicker than me!!!!

[horseplayer]

No is now evens on betfair sportsbook

Done a bit of digging

Since the start of last seasons campaign 10 of the 19 match days has had a goal in the first 5 minutes.

Not a massive sample admittedly but big enough, think i can let this win at evens

[tikay]

Time I had a new avatar I think. I always wanted to be the best at something. I got there.

[Doobs]

No is now evens on betfair sportsbook

Done a bit of digging

Since the start of last seasons campaign 10 of the 19 match days has had a goal in the first 5 minutes.

Not a massive sample admittedly but big enough, think i can let this win at evens

You can still get 2.1 on the exchange.  At least the sweat is short.

[doubleup]

No is now evens on betfair sportsbook

Done a bit of digging

Since the start of last seasons campaign 10 of the 19 match days has had a goal in the first 5 minutes.

Not a massive sample admittedly but big enough, think i can let this win at evens

You can still get 2.1 on the exchange.  At least the sweat is short.

So do you have one of those walls covered in TVs for the sweat?

[tikay]

No is now evens on betfair sportsbook

Done a bit of digging

Since the start of last seasons campaign 10 of the 19 match days has had a goal in the first 5 minutes.

Not a massive sample admittedly but big enough, think i can let this win at evens

You can still get 2.1 on the exchange.  At least the sweat is short.

So do you have one of those walls covered in TVs for the sweat?

7.45, in Chez Doobs.

[Doobs]

No is now evens on betfair sportsbook

Done a bit of digging

Since the start of last seasons campaign 10 of the 19 match days has had a goal in the first 5 minutes.

Not a massive sample admittedly but big enough, think i can let this win at evens

You can still get 2.1 on the exchange.  At least the sweat is short.

So do you have one of those walls covered in TVs for the sweat?

7.45, in Chez Doobs.

If only, will be probably playing poker trying to follow on bbc sport or similar hoping for a goal in the first minute. 

[horseplayer]

flashscores with the sound up and you hear the goalllllllllllll noise






*only to discover it is in the under 19's Lithuanian reserve match

[Doobs]

I don't know who I am kidding, it is inevitable one of the kids plays up between 7.45 and 7.50.  They can sense I need to be somewhere else.

[BigAdz]

I thought we had a few bob on it but cant find it, but for those that did Johns Spirit, he has been blasted into for Paddy Power Gold Cup.

[redarmi]

No is now evens on betfair sportsbook

Done a bit of digging

Since the start of last seasons campaign 10 of the 19 match days has had a goal in the first 5 minutes.

Not a massive sample admittedly but big enough, think i can let this win at evens

You can still get 2.1 on the exchange.  At least the sweat is short.

Meh I'm on.  Not sure I love it but I also can't imagine that the bot programmers have spent lots of time on this market either to be honest.

[BigAdz]

Our own Camel getting bigged up by James W on 432 right now!!!

[aaron1867]

Athletic Madrid at home to Vienna tonight, 1/9 to win.

Will win, but hard to find a bet for tonight.

Diego Costa joint top goalscorer in Spain with Ronaldo & he's 11/4 in only one place to score first tonight with Betfred.

[doubleup]

I don't know who I am kidding, it is inevitable one of the kids plays up between 7.45 and 7.50.  They can sense I need to be somewhere else.

I was thinking that if you could find a way of recording the five minutes from each game, you could have a mega-squeeze watching each in turn.  It then occurred to me that, isn't this bet just whether or not a goal will be scored in 40 mins?

[redarmi]

I don't know who I am kidding, it is inevitable one of the kids plays up between 7.45 and 7.50.  They can sense I need to be somewhere else.

I was thinking that if you could find a way of recording the five minutes from each game, you could have a mega-squeeze watching each in turn.  It then occurred to me that, isn't this bet just whether or not a goal will be scored in 40 mins?

Pedantic I know but it is 35 minutes but yes effectively that is what it is albeit 7x the cagier first 5 minutes.