Tips for Tikay

[tikay]

Our homer ref, Carl Cheffers, has a game we can bet on this week

Tennessee at Oakland

Oakland are modest home underdogs

Tennessee, as we know, are no great shakes

Both are playing back up quarterbacks

Both have losing records

Even leaving the referee aside, I am surprised Oakland are 1.5 point dogs


Updating the data for Mr Cheffers

http://www.pro-football-reference.com/officials/ChefCa0r.htm

Over six years as the lead official he has taken charge of 83 games

In the last four years, when the stats go haywire in favour of the home side for this ref, the % for home wins for his games are

2010 .667  9 of 15
2011 .875  14 of 16
2012 .75    9 of 12
2013 .667  6 of 9

total 38 of 52 home wins that he has refereed or 73%

across the NFL for all games

Home win percentages are

2010 55.3%
2011 57.5%
2012 57.1%
2013 39.5%

and this runs at 57.5% since the year 2000


In his nine games this year, the visiting team has been penalised 65 times, the home team 45 times

Last year, 92 penalties against the visitors, 82 against the home team


I quite like Oakland outright at Evens anyway. Add in Mr Cheffers, and I think we have a bet. Something like £50 at evens


 


 

Thanks Tighty.

BET PLACED

[TightEnd]

Daily Report

Profit on Month £197.51

Outstanding Bets £3151.51

Free bets to use ONE William Hill by tomorrow

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Aia1Hxq-NDNWdFk3UmlTSXMzTjRBTVNfOWRndVFsZHc&usp=drive_web#gid=32

Another loss yesterday, this time £30 with two losers at Haydock and Romford


England are getting pummelled in the Ashes

In good news for us Broad has 8 wickets, 4 ahead of the rest so we have had a good start to that bet

That's about all the good news. Except that we didn't back England or get too stuck into this single match


Today

Our interests include:

The racing at Cheltenham

The RLWC Semi Finals

A full football programme is back and in addition to the long term stuff we have interests in the Bundesliga and at Blackpool and Leeds today

SCD, X Factor

We need LSU to beat Texas A and M later to land the Manziel bet



 

[doubleup]

Our homer ref, Carl Cheffers, has a game we can bet on this week

Tennessee at Oakland

Oakland are modest home underdogs

Tennessee, as we know, are no great shakes

Both are playing back up quarterbacks

Both have losing records

Even leaving the referee aside, I am surprised Oakland are 1.5 point dogs


Updating the data for Mr Cheffers

http://www.pro-football-reference.com/officials/ChefCa0r.htm

Over six years as the lead official he has taken charge of 83 games

In the last four years, when the stats go haywire in favour of the home side for this ref, the % for home wins for his games are

2010 .667  9 of 15
2011 .875  14 of 16
2012 .75    9 of 12
2013 .667  6 of 9

total 38 of 52 home wins that he has refereed or 73%

across the NFL for all games

Home win percentages are

2010 55.3%
2011 57.5%
2012 57.1%
2013 39.5%

and this runs at 57.5% since the year 2000


In his nine games this year, the visiting team has been penalised 65 times, the home team 45 times

Last year, 92 penalties against the visitors, 82 against the home team


I quite like Oakland outright at Evens anyway. Add in Mr Cheffers, and I think we have a bet. Something like £50 at evens

Obviously an autobet but can we please not take Evens.  Pinnacle are +106 which is a tad better than 21/20.  Not having an account with them is throwing money away week in week out.

I don't know if this is a bit naughty. It probably is so if any mods remove this post I completely understand.

If you don't have a Pinnacle account you really should have one. Both Neil and I would be grateful if you opened it via this page:

http://www.bettingemporium.com/pages/view/free-bets

Thanks Joe,

I'll happily do so, but I need to check first if my Pinnacle Accoint is already open. I set it up some time ago, but they requested scanned documents, which I did not sort out (don't have access to a scanner).

Let me see where I am with ther Accouint, & if it is already set up, awaiting docs, or whether I can start again, in which case, yes, I'll use that link.

redarmi is right, of course, it makes no sense not to have a Pinnacle Account.

I wonder if they will apply for a uk gambling license when the new legislation comes in?

I went thru the ID hassle using photos rather than scanning - they were very pernickity and as the card has run out, can't really be bothered going through the hassle again (particularly if they are going to stop taking bets from the uk)

[Kmac84]

I have a few bets in mind for some of the lower league Scottish events.  I won't be able to post them until about 2:30 though. 

Keep an eye out as Fred has missed a decent few results in this area. 

[Tal]

I have a few bets in mind for some of the lower league Scottish events.  I won't be able to post them until about 2:30 though.  

Keep an eye out as Fred has missed a decent few results in this area.  

Just a suggestion, but PM tikay once you've had your fill if you want Fred to be on, then post at 2.30 if you want to tell others. At least gives him time to see your bet and place his own.

But bear in mind this is a community thing, so posting shortly before the off might mean Fred misses out. If you don't mind that and are happy that others will have seen it and got on in time, cool.

[tikay]

I have a few bets in mind for some of the lower league Scottish events.  I won't be able to post them until about 2:30 though. 

Keep an eye out as Fred has missed a decent few results in this area. 

OK, thank you, will do. I Do understand why thay have to be "last minute", team news etc, but the sooner the better please.

[tikay]

I have a few bets in mind for some of the lower league Scottish events.  I won't be able to post them until about 2:30 though. 

Keep an eye out as Fred has missed a decent few results in this area. 

Just a suggestion, but PM tikay once you've had your fill if you want Fred to be on, then post at 2.30 if you want to tell others. At least gives him time to see your bet and place his own.

I think the late posting is because he awaits Team news. Not 100% sure, but that was my understanding.

[Tal]

I have a few bets in mind for some of the lower league Scottish events.  I won't be able to post them until about 2:30 though. 

Keep an eye out as Fred has missed a decent few results in this area. 

Just a suggestion, but PM tikay once you've had your fill if you want Fred to be on, then post at 2.30 if you want to tell others. At least gives him time to see your bet and place his own.

I think the late posting is because he awaits Team news. Not 100% sure, but that was my understanding.

Mea culpa

As you were...

[Kmac84]

I have a few bets in mind for some of the lower league Scottish events.  I won't be able to post them until about 2:30 though. 

Keep an eye out as Fred has missed a decent few results in this area. 

Just a suggestion, but PM tikay once you've had your fill if you want Fred to be on, then post at 2.30 if you want to tell others. At least gives him time to see your bet and place his own.

I think the late posting is because he awaits Team news. Not 100% sure, but that was my understanding.

This you will find that not many of these markets move that significantly unless there is some major news but I like to know for sure that players I rate in these leagues are starting because they do make a big difference.

[BigAdz]

Denied yesterday but keen on one for the TV boys

Zuider Zee 1.50 H. £10 ew.

Ran a smashing first race of the season in heavy ground and hopefully take advantage of a few promising types here who may need the run. Looked for all the world like he would come on loads for his last run as he wasn't knocked about at all(cliches abound there, sorry)

Not sure the price is miles out, but a nice price on one I think has a real chance.

[tikay]

Denied yesterday but keen on one for the TV boys

Zuider Zee 1.50 H. £10 ew.

Ran a smashing first race of the season in heavy ground and hopefully take advantage of a few promising types here who may need the run. Looked for all the world like he would come on loads for his last run as he wasn't knocked about at all(cliches abound there, sorry)

Not sure the price is miles out, but a nice price on one I think has a real chance.

Thanks Adz.

I never had a guide price, but took 8/1, hope that was correct, Sporting Bet were best price. (qtr, 1,2,3).


BET PLACED

[BigAdz]

Spot on sir.

GL us.

[Omm]

Suarez is best price 9-1 to score 2 or more with PP, just beats BF and is at least a few points bigger than next with most going 5-1 and even a 9/2.

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/premier-league/everton-v-liverpool/to-score-2-or-more-goals

We all know what he has been scoring since he has been back, just whether 9-1 is value or are all the others too short?

Think it might be worth a couple of quid at that price. £5 recommend.

[Kmac84]

Tikay, can I suggest one before team news comes out.  

Morton were 11/8 earlier in the week and even first thing this morning that could still be found but there seems to have been a bit of a move for them.  The 5/4 with Ladbrokes is a stand out the now.  I opposed them last time when they played Queen of the South but by all accounts it wasn't the worse game they had played and although failing to score they did have a number of shots which is better that what they had being doing.   Morton were unlucky last season and for much of the season were title contenders this season has been poor but they might be about to turn the corner.  £30 @ 5/4 seems reasonable here.  If we can't get the 5/4 I would be inclined to leave it.  

They are at home to Livingston who are woeful.

[Teacake]

Tikay, can I suggest one before team news comes out.  

Morton were 11/8 earlier in the week and even first thing this morning that could still be found but there seems to have been a bit of a move for them.  The 5/4 with Ladbrokes is a stand out the now.  I opposed them last time when they played Queen of the South but by all accounts it wasn't the worse game they had played and although failing to score they did have a number of shots which is better that what they had being doing.   Morton were unlucky last season and for much of the season were title contenders this season has been poor but they might be about to turn the corner.  £30 @ 5/4 seems reasonable here.  If we can't get the 5/4 I would be inclined to leave it.  

They are at home to Livingston who are woeful.

What are your thoughts on opposing Celtic today? I'm sure you suggested opposing them following CL games however the trend has shifted this season with all post CL games being won but points dropped in 3 of 5 games pre CL including 2 at home.

Celtic players will very much have Milan on Tuesday at the back of there minds and Aberdeen have been in good form winning 4 in a row before their defeat to Hearts last time out which looked like a bit of freak result based on the highlights of the game.

7/1 Aberdeen looks fair to me.