Tips for Tikay

[BigAdz]

Had a look at Strictly prices today. There's six left, 4 birds, 2 blokes. The blokes are the two outsiders, and to go this weekend, are both 2/1 faves. Next best price is Abbey at 5/1, so it seems pretty likely one of the blokes goes. Abbey got 40 out of 40 last week so it seems impossible for her to go unless both blokes escape the bottom 2, because the judges couldn't vote off someone they gave a perfect score to.

In the top man betting, obviously it's now just between the 2 left, Ashley and Pat. Ashley is odds on everywhere to be top man, s short as 4/7, Pat odds against.

Given that it's highly likely these 2 are the worst 2 and 1 will almost certainly go this week (if it's any one of them and someone else I can't see anyone but the bloke going) then is backing Pat to go this week not getting 2/1 on an odds-on shot, as Ash is so short in the top man market?

I realise Ash can be top man and Pat not go this week, so it's not quite that simple, but I just don't see how one of the blokes doesn't go this week. Am I thiking too simple? 2/1 on an odds-on looks juicy to me and even if it's not quite that simple, 2/1 looks big to me, if the top man market is correct, which with like 10 books pricing it, it should be. Maybe it's just that the odd-on is wrong? Either way, I'm backing Pat to go this week t 2/1

I am a bit wary about this week.  Patrick is a judge's favourite and they get double the influence they normally get this week because of the Swingathon.  I think he probably deserves to go, and think that he has little public support, just better to leave it a week? 

Still more interested in whether the maths makes sense? Like if u think Pat is gonna get double the judge's love, who do u think is going this week? U agree either bloke goes if they're against anyone other than each other? If hu think Pat goes? So if Pat is bottom 2 he goes, if Ash is he goes against everyone bar Pat. That's my feeling. So the only way Ash isn't top man is if Pat isn't in the bottom 2, which seems unlikely. Just can't get my head round how they're both odds on to be bottom 2, they're the faves to get booted by a long way, Ash is odds on to be top man yet it's 2/1 Pat to go this week. Surely one of them is going.

I have probably been talking nonsense, I just checked how the Swingathon votes went before.  The Swingathon and judges scores for the main dance are added together to get one combined judges score.  That means that they can't put poor Patrick out of reach.  So good chance Patrick can go.  Len has the casting vote in the Swingathon, and think he is pro Susanna and Patrick.  

Abbey can obviously bottom 2, as she has already.  Nat bottom 2 would be an interesting bet, she doesn't poll well... To be honest I don't think any of them are immune, Sophie hasn't been marked that positively in the past, and I just don't see the love for Susanna.  At least Susanna is priced a bit better again now.

I have some fairly weighty positions, and am fairly confused.  If I had a bet, it might be the flyer on Nat bottom 2, but 2/1 Pat doesn't look terrible.  We have missed better bets though and I will be happier when it is down to the public.  

Sounds like a right buggers muddle there Doobs! GL

[Omm]

McDowell -1 and leading, is it too early to celebrate? 

That draw looks a bit rigged to me, did they ask them who they wanted to play with, or is it just coincidence at the top of the order?

Seems to me the tournament is abit of a jolly for all of them, £100k just for playing and £1m to the winner I bet they don't mind who they are partnered with, nice work if you can get it.

[Omm]

The last couple of nights there have been some late market moves for next elimination that have both been right on I'm a celeb, Vincent Simone and Steve. Davis. Tonight it looks like that move is for Rebecca was 6-1 biggest now is 9/2. Just saying

http://www.oddschecker.com/tv/im-a-celebrity/next-elimination

[BigAdz]

I have a few quid on her Mr Omm, but its been settled as a loser.....anything I am missing?

[Doobs]

I have a few quid on her Mr Omm, but its been settled as a loser.....anything I am missing?

she was 7th eviction, not 6th

[Doobs]

Jordan Spieth two double bogeys and a triple

[BigAdz]

Cheers............

[doubleup]

McDowell -1 and leading, is it too early to celebrate? 

That draw looks a bit rigged to me, did they ask them who they wanted to play with, or is it just coincidence at the top of the order?

All the draws in the us are rigged for tv.

[JaffaCake]

Had a look at Strictly prices today. There's six left, 4 birds, 2 blokes. The blokes are the two outsiders, and to go this weekend, are both 2/1 faves. Next best price is Abbey at 5/1, so it seems pretty likely one of the blokes goes. Abbey got 40 out of 40 last week so it seems impossible for her to go unless both blokes escape the bottom 2, because the judges couldn't vote off someone they gave a perfect score to.

In the top man betting, obviously it's now just between the 2 left, Ashley and Pat. Ashley is odds on everywhere to be top man, s short as 4/7, Pat odds against.

Given that it's highly likely these 2 are the worst 2 and 1 will almost certainly go this week (if it's any one of them and someone else I can't see anyone but the bloke going) then is backing Pat to go this week not getting 2/1 on an odds-on shot, as Ash is so short in the top man market?

I realise Ash can be top man and Pat not go this week, so it's not quite that simple, but I just don't see how one of the blokes doesn't go this week. Am I thiking too simple? 2/1 on an odds-on looks juicy to me and even if it's not quite that simple, 2/1 looks big to me, if the top man market is correct, which with like 10 books pricing it, it should be. Maybe it's just that the odd-on is wrong? Either way, I'm backing Pat to go this week t 2/1

I am a bit wary about this week.  Patrick is a judge's favourite and they get double the influence they normally get this week because of the Swingathon.  I think he probably deserves to go, and think that he has little public support, just better to leave it a week? 

Still more interested in whether the maths makes sense? Like if u think Pat is gonna get double the judge's love, who do u think is going this week? U agree either bloke goes if they're against anyone other than each other? If hu think Pat goes? So if Pat is bottom 2 he goes, if Ash is he goes against everyone bar Pat. That's my feeling. So the only way Ash isn't top man is if Pat isn't in the bottom 2, which seems unlikely. Just can't get my head round how they're both odds on to be bottom 2, they're the faves to get booted by a long way, Ash is odds on to be top man yet it's 2/1 Pat to go this week. Surely one of them is going.

I have probably been talking nonsense, I just checked how the Swingathon votes went before.  The Swingathon and judges scores for the main dance are added together to get one combined judges score.  That means that they can't put poor Patrick out of reach.  So good chance Patrick can go.  Len has the casting vote in the Swingathon, and think he is pro Susanna and Patrick.  

Abbey can obviously bottom 2, as she has already.  Nat bottom 2 would be an interesting bet, she doesn't poll well... To be honest I don't think any of them are immune, Sophie hasn't been marked that positively in the past, and I just don't see the love for Susanna.  At least Susanna is priced a bit better again now.

I have some fairly weighty positions, and am fairly confused.  If I had a bet, it might be the flyer on Nat bottom 2, but 2/1 Pat doesn't look terrible.  We have missed better bets though and I will be happier when it is down to the public.  

I agree Abbey and anyone else maaaaay be bottom 2, but they will never be kicked out even if they are, I'm talking about who goes, not who is bottom 2. So if a bloke is bottom 2 they go imo. If both blokes, I think Pat goes. The market seems to agree, by making Ash odds on (like 4/7 in places) to be top man, yet u can get 2/1 on Pat going. Can't see any scenario where both men survive, so the top man market will be settled this weekend.

My only decent bet is on Nat, I still love the bet at 8/1 and won't be budging, she is the one who has the wow factor to take over the final if and when she makes it. People keep bringing up Chris Hollins, but bar him, the best dancer generally wins

[redarmi]

I think Ace Sanders is too big for first and last TD scorer tonight in the NFL @ 20-1 with Hills and .  He has had 20 receptions in the last three games for over 60 yards per game and this week the coach said they are actively seeking to target his strengths.  This is a team that is not going to be scared to try things from now on.  Its a bit of a banzai given he hasnt scored yet this season but since Blackmon is out he appears to be part of the plan.    I would make him about a 12-14/1 shot.

[Tal]

Natalie has been the competition's best dancer throughout. She has a lovely flowing style to boot. The little I have seen of training this week - and I have discussed this with my Senior Advisor on technical dance matters - suggests she might be midtable this weekend. Ashley looked surprisingly good. I'd be surprised if he went bottom two on that basis. He also has Ola in the swingathon, who is a nice easy lift(!). Abbey looks great. She is the Tony McCoy/Richard Hughes type, just coming up at the end. I'm not a huge fan of her but she's coming across really well in front of the cameras (like a real person, rather than a diva) and has massively improved as a dancer.

Susanna and Sophie are a bit hit and miss. I think Susanna 's partner, Kevin, has to give Susanna slightly easier routines she can nail, rather than going for level ten stuff wherein she makes a few mistakes. They have an Argentine Tango and I don't think Kevin will ever have danced that as a pro before. Sophie is back in ballroom comfort and I don't expect anything other than a very solid dance. She could be ok in the swingathon. The judges moaned about the sharpness of her flicks and kicks when she did her jive, but Brendan made a technical point on It Takes Two that effectively explained why a couple of the judges were wrong. Be interesting to see whether he teaches Sophie their way or his.

Patrick is full of confidence but his work schedule is insane compared to the others. He is training considerably less than the others, apparently. I'm not convinced the Swingathom will be good for him because the faster dances aren't usually his forte IIRC (Charleston is quick but not precise; jive is much more technical), but we will have to see.

I agree with Jeff that if one boy is under the red light, they will likely go. That is unless the producers have a word about evening up the numbers. Not suggesting that happens of course. What I will say is both Ashley and Patrick have survived the dance off this series, so can perform under that pressure.

[Ant040689]

I think Ace Sanders is too big for first and last TD scorer tonight in the NFL @ 20-1 with Hills and .  He has had 20 receptions in the last three games for over 60 yards per game and this week the coach said they are actively seeking to target his strengths.  This is a team that is not going to be scared to try things from now on.  Its a bit of a banzai given he hasnt scored yet this season but since Blackmon is out he appears to be part of the plan.    I would make him about a 12-14/1 shot.

Waded in to give it no chance. Tyty, will respond with any non league footie stuff for value if i come across it, don't want to appear to only be taking here! Funnily enough I put my Bromley tip up on here, it is the same league that the two Whitehawk players who have been charged for possible match fixing were playing in. Oops.

[Longy]

Winston will not be charged. That pretty much locks up the heisman for him.

[redarmi]

I think Ace Sanders is too big for first and last TD scorer tonight in the NFL @ 20-1 with Hills and .  He has had 20 receptions in the last three games for over 60 yards per game and this week the coach said they are actively seeking to target his strengths.  This is a team that is not going to be scared to try things from now on.  Its a bit of a banzai given he hasnt scored yet this season but since Blackmon is out he appears to be part of the plan.    I would make him about a 12-14/1 shot.

Hmmmm Hills made a big move on this after I posted. 

[redarmi]

I think Ace Sanders is too big for first and last TD scorer tonight in the NFL @ 20-1 with Hills and .  He has had 20 receptions in the last three games for over 60 yards per game and this week the coach said they are actively seeking to target his strengths.  This is a team that is not going to be scared to try things from now on.  Its a bit of a banzai given he hasnt scored yet this season but since Blackmon is out he appears to be part of the plan.    I would make him about a 12-14/1 shot.

Wish I had known one of his strengths was throwing rather than catching the ball!!!!