Tips for Tikay

[tikay]

Well this is partly because of the Palace jibe on that podcast, so here goes my swipe, ouch,

Notice the last time I suggested on here, under two weeks ago, I gave you Palace value by suggesting Palace were too big at 17/4  to stay up which has since been reduced to 45/17.

I think Palace are value across a few bookmakers at 9/5 tomorrow for the win. I think they should at most be in the region of 6/4. They have only conceded 1 in 4 (3 clean sheets), and won 2 of their last 4. They kept Everton and West Ham from scoring in their last two home games, being unlucky not to win against Everton (0-0) and winning 1-0 against West Ham, when it could have easily been more. Cardiff haven't scored away from home in their last 3 against Villa, Stoke and Norwich.

Pulis would have earmarked this as a must win for survival, which perhaps adds more emphasis on the likelihood he wouldn't settle for a draw.

Suggest £25 on Palace at 9/5

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/premier-league/crystal-palace-v-cardiff-city/winner

Barry Bannan has been looking tasty from crosses/through balls in play, and not so good from the set pieces but he always takes them and I would imagine he has been working on them in training mid week. He hasn’t looked bad from set pieces in the past, nearly helping Delaney to a goal from a corner against Norwich.

With Jedinak, Puncheon, and KG likely to start in midfield with him, I can't see much of a penetrative assist from any of those players aside from Bannan, Jedinak perhaps with a long ball, but Bannan is more likely. He has a lovely looped cross ball that has caused great chances in recent games.

Suggest £5 at 10/1 for Barry Bannan to make the first assist with Boylesports and 10/3 anytime for £10-15.

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/premier-league/crystal-palace-v-cardiff-city/first-assist

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/premier-league/crystal-palace-v-cardiff-city/anytime-assist

If you really don’t want to back Palace, and I am assuming that is the case, I would suggest just going on one of the Bannan bets, cheers.

Thanks Ant, especially for so much detail.

Firstly, Palace are best priced 13/8 as far as I can see, close to the 6/4 you believe they should be, so I've missed value there by overnight dithering.

As to the Bannan suggestion, 10/1 does not (to my untrained eye) strike me as great value for first assist, or 100/30 for Anytime asist. Palace are, by some distance, the lowest scorers in the PL, with just EIGHT goals in 14 games, so just over half a goal per game. They have to score, THEN Bannan needs to get the assist. Is that really "value"?

I don't know enough about football really, &, with respect, I'm fearful of your Palace affection, just as I am with Plinop's Newcastle suggestions, you guys see it different from everyone else.

Anyway, we will get on either, or both, bets, if a few of our football regulars give the bets some warmth. If they do, we will deffo get on, if they don't, I can't really. Note that not one of them has commented so far.

I can't help but ask the question - do I really trust Palace with my money? They are not exactly settled, or reliable, though they have done a tad better of late.

Lets see what the lads say, & I'll go with their flow.

Whatever Fred does, I hope Palace score a hatful today, & Bannan gets the assist.

[BigAdz]

Just been sent a great offer from SportingBet.

If I back the winner of the 3.35 they will give me a free bet for any other TV race today!

Gee, Thanks SportingBet!!

[tikay]

Pretty sure 13/8 is better than 6/4.....

?

He Recomended @ 9/5, & added "I think they should be nearer 6/4". I said "13/8 was close to the price he thinks they should be, but I missed the 9/5."

His point was this was a 6/4 shot priced at 9/5. Mine was that it was a 6/4 shot priced at 13/8. Not much margin for error there.

[tikay]

Just been sent a great offer from SportingBet.

If I back the winner of the 3.35 they will give me a free bet for any other TV race today!

Gee, Thanks SportingBet!!

Ha!

Very clever stuff. Aftertiming required for that bugger.

[BigAdz]

Pretty sure 13/8 is better than 6/4.....

?

He Recomended @ 9/5, & added "I think they should be nearer 6/4". I said "13/8 was close to the price he thinks they should be, but I missed the 9/5."

His point was this was a 6/4 shot priced at 9/5. Mine was that it was a 6/4 shot priced at 13/8. Not much margin for error there.

Hence the delete!  Just read the first sentence. He's an idiot that Ant.......

[a.sparrow]

A bet to consider for the united game today.  United will be without RVP, Rooney and Kawaga, which means it'll probably Hernandez starting up front.  Hernadez is 5/1 for the most shots, which seems decent considering uniteds lack of attacking options, my only issue is newcastle are quite a strong physical team, and he isnt the biggest of players. Does anyone else have any views on this?  

I like Remy as a player too, I said last week he is newcastle's biggest attacking threat, but he didn't score despite having a few good chances, he looked lively, he also had a couple of chances vs swansea when newcastle were beaten 3-0.  United aren't performing too well of late, so its not hugely unlikely that they will conceed and Remy can be had at 7/2 for an anytime goal, 11/1 for first.

I'm just thinking out loud really.

Whilst tying this i've seen you can back Suarez to score first a 11/4 with Corals, love this bet, no sturridge, liverpools main goal scoring threat and in incredible form, Westham don't really have many attacking options and dont score many goals, 11/4 is a very fair price.

[tikay]

A bet to consider for the united game today.  United will be without RVP, Rooney and Kawaga, which means it'll probably Hernandez starting up front.  Hernadez is 5/1 for the most shots, which seems decent considering uniteds lack of attacking options, my only issue is newcastle are quite a strong physical team, and he isnt the biggest of players. Does anyone else have any views on this?  

I like Remy as a player too, I said last week he is newcastle's biggest attacking threat, but he didn't score despite having a few good chances, he looked lively, he also had a couple of chances vs swansea when newcastle were beaten 3-0.  United aren't performing too well of late, so its not hugely unlikely that they will conceed and Remy can be had at 7/2 for an anytime goal, 11/1 for first.

I'm just thinking out loud really.

Whilst tying this i've seen you can back Suarez to score first a 11/4 with Corals, love this bet, no sturridge, liverpools main goal scoring threat and in incredible form, Westham don't really have many attacking options and dont score many goals, 11/4 is a very fair price.

Thanks sparrer.

Lets see if others agree. I don't overly trust Newcastle, & I'm pretty sure United will have their tails up today after the Everton result, though the same may be said of Newcastle, after their last result.

I've no idea if 11/4 FGS is value or noit, I think that price has a correlation with the Outright price, but I don't know what it is. Am loving his goals (so is Fred generally) I just don't know if that is value or not.

[TightEnd]

Saphir du Rheu  1.20 Sandown

£10 ew VC/Boyles,

Thanks Adzy.

BET PLACED

[tikay]

Saphir du Rheu  1.20 Sandown

£10 ew VC/Boyles,

Thanks Adzy.

BET PLACED

Ooh, thanks for the reiminder, will confirm imminently.

I must add we were on this very quickly, the 8/1 had gone already, but I thought 7/1 was acceptable, & took it.

Not sure I was correct so to do, & the price seems fairly stable this morning.


http://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing-betting/sandown/13:20/winner

Apologies if I took a bad price, it was a bit awkward for me last night, & I was rushing.

[Marky147]

Ryan Moore has got a ride on 'one of the chinky horses, on the undercard' out in Hong Kong.

That is straight from his brother this morning on TV, so now it's just a case of working out which one it is...

[BigAdz]

Saphir du Rheu  1.20 Sandown

£10 ew VC/Boyles,

Thanks Adzy.

BET PLACED

Ooh, thanks for the reiminder, will confirm imminently.

I must add we were on this very quickly, the 8/1 had gone already, but I thought 7/1 was acceptable, & took it.

Not sure I was correct so to do, & the price seems fairly stable this morning.


http://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing-betting/sandown/13:20/winner

Apologies if I took a bad price, it was a bit awkward for me last night, & I was rushing.

Its rarely a bad price when its guarenteed. Not the plunge I expected, but cant be right every time......

[TightEnd]

Blundell Park Grimsby.

If you've been you'll never forget it. I loved it, in a masochistic sort of way.

Click to see full-size image.

It's actually in Cleethorpes and you turn off the Cleethorpes road heading to Grimsby, go down a terraced street and there, with the main stand with its back to the North Sea, is the ground

Sit in the Findus stand on the other side, elevated above the rest of the ground and look out over the sea and prepare for the coldest experience of your footballing life



The games at the Grismby ground ares played out with an all-pervading aroma of fish, and the wind whips in through the corners between the stands to make it quite the experience.

Prawn Sandwich it is not. Jellied Eels it is

Today Grimsby Town host Northampton Town in the FA Cup Second Round

Grimsby lie fourth in the Conference, Northampton 2nd bottom of the football League

I've seen Northampton this season live, and there is not a lot of difference between them and the top conference sides. Not a great deal of talent, and under Aidy Bothroyd the style is one dimensional at best.

Northampton were also on TV in the first round of the cup, where they beat Bishops Stortford 2-1

Grimsby beat league side Scunthorpe in a replay in the first round, albeit this was a Scunthorpe side struggling before the departure of Brian Laws, again. They drew at home then won at the world's worst new ground, so bad that they are about to replace it, Glanford Park



Grimsby are full time and this is a tough tie for a league side, let alone a struggling one, let alone in early December.

Before I looked at prices, I had Grimsby evens at best for this. They rested players for an FA Trophy game at home on Tuesday, and will be well up for a shot at the third round draw

My interest was piqued when I saw that we can get a shade under 6/4 with BetVictor

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/fa-cup/grimsby-v-northampton/winner


I think 29/20 is a very fair price indeed, and recommend £20 at said price for the plucky Mariners to beat the Cobblers and hopefully draw Manchester United

Fish and chips on me if it wins

[hector62]

Morning Mr T.

In the Heineken cup today I fancy 2 away wins for Harlequins and Leinster. I think the Harlequins game is priced correctly so I will propose a bet on Leinster to beat Northampton. Success in the Heineken cup is hugely influenced by topping the group so that you get home advantage in the knockout stage and Leinster are the masters of this. They have won both games this season and I am not convinced that Northampton have much to them. It will be a very tight game but at 13/10 Leinster are worth supporting.

Suggest £25 Leinster @ 13/10 with Boyles or Hills.

[tikay]

No feedback, or even a tad or warmth, for Ant's Palace bets?

[tikay]

Morning Mr T.

In the Heineken cup today I fancy 2 away wins for Harlequins and Leinster. I think the Harlequins game is priced correctly so I will propose a bet on Leinster to beat Northampton. Success in the Heineken cup is hugely influenced by topping the group so that you get home advantage in the knockout stage and Leinster are the masters of this. They have won both games this season and I am not convinced that Northampton have much to them. It will be a very tight game but at 13/10 Leinster are worth supporting.

Suggest £25 Leinster @ 13/10 with Boyles or Hills.

Thanks hector, & good morning.

We are safely aboard, good luck.

BET PLACED