Tips for Tikay

[tikay]

Better

MUCH better.

[tikay]

Poor form, doobs.

Less of the wanton smuttery, please. More of the maths wizardry.

Yes, wanton smuttery, has no place here.

He's proper wanton, that Doobs.

[Tonji]

Wool coat over denim jacket, shirt & tie, his stylist needs a good talking to!

[tikay]

Wool coat over denim jacket, shirt & tie, his stylist needs a good talking to!

Is it that bloke from "Wham!"? George Michael?

[scotty2hatty]

Wool coat over denim jacket, shirt & tie, his stylist needs a good talking to!

You're mistaken I'm afraid, it's a strong look.

[Omm]

Not a Fred recommend but if anyone fancies taking a bit of a chance I could see Double Ross running a big race in the December Gold Cup on Saturday.

He looks to be one of only two probable front runners and he has no weight. He jumps well for a novice and has good course form. So far his form is nothing to sing about, but some collateral form with Balder Success makes him looked well handicapped to me. It was also at a time when Twisters horses were running poorly, and they are doing better no.w A few in the race have done us some favours already this year and may not be so well handicapped now.

The clincher is 16s with Boyles and paying first 4, because I will be surprised if the full 16 stand their ground(Old friend Cantlow has been drifting in and out all day on Betty, for one).

I would also be keen on Cantlow, if McCoy sticks with him over the favourite Colour Squadron. However at declaration time, if he does opt for C,  the price will go immediately. Also, as I said, on Betty his price is fluctuating, so he may not even run, so a bit of pays your money, takes your choice.

McCoy to ride Colour Squadron and Choc Thornton on Cantlow

[BigAdz]

Not a Fred recommend but if anyone fancies taking a bit of a chance I could see Double Ross running a big race in the December Gold Cup on Saturday.

He looks to be one of only two probable front runners and he has no weight. He jumps well for a novice and has good course form. So far his form is nothing to sing about, but some collateral form with Balder Success makes him looked well handicapped to me. It was also at a time when Twisters horses were running poorly, and they are doing better no.w A few in the race have done us some favours already this year and may not be so well handicapped now.

The clincher is 16s with Boyles and paying first 4, because I will be surprised if the full 16 stand their ground(Old friend Cantlow has been drifting in and out all day on Betty, for one).

I would also be keen on Cantlow, if McCoy sticks with him over the favourite Colour Squadron. However at declaration time, if he does opt for C,  the price will go immediately. Also, as I said, on Betty his price is fluctuating, so he may not even run, so a bit of pays your money, takes your choice.

McCoy to ride Colour Squadron and Choc Thornton on Cantlow

Any saver on Cantlow now Choc is on board will be laid back at any price!!

My poor poor Cantlow

[tikay]

Not a Fred recommend but if anyone fancies taking a bit of a chance I could see Double Ross running a big race in the December Gold Cup on Saturday.

He looks to be one of only two probable front runners and he has no weight. He jumps well for a novice and has good course form. So far his form is nothing to sing about, but some collateral form with Balder Success makes him looked well handicapped to me. It was also at a time when Twisters horses were running poorly, and they are doing better no.w A few in the race have done us some favours already this year and may not be so well handicapped now.

The clincher is 16s with Boyles and paying first 4, because I will be surprised if the full 16 stand their ground(Old friend Cantlow has been drifting in and out all day on Betty, for one).

I would also be keen on Cantlow, if McCoy sticks with him over the favourite Colour Squadron. However at declaration time, if he does opt for C,  the price will go immediately. Also, as I said, on Betty his price is fluctuating, so he may not even run, so a bit of pays your money, takes your choice.

McCoy to ride Colour Squadron and Choc Thornton on Cantlow

Any saver on Cantlow now Choc is on board will be laid back at any price!!

My poor poor Cantlow

Hi Adzy,

I know this is not a Fred recommend - you save the creme da le creme for us - but I may have an off-thread do. What would you sensibly recommend?

[hector62]

Morning Mr T.

The first tennis major of the season is 4 weeks away. After losing the US Open and his number 1 world ranking Djokovic has been rejuvenated, seemingly back to his invincible best of 3 years ago. So much so that I had my biggest ever bet last month on him to win the ATP finals. In the final against Nadal he dominated him so much that he made him look like he was moving with your dodgy back.

There are doubts over Djokovic's main rivals. Murray may not even play, Nadal's knee seemed to be playing up at the ATP, Federer is as old as Moses. Wawrinka or Del Potro could cause some problems but the way Djokovic played over the last 6 weeks of the season make the 6/4 available look inviting.

Suggest £40 Djokovic to win the Australian open with Boyles.


Let's hope the selectors give Monty a spin tonight as it will be a bit dull not having a bet on the match. By the way Betfred have paid out already on Australia to win the Ashes.

[Tonji]

Wool coat over denim jacket, shirt & tie, his stylist needs a good talking to!

You're mistaken I'm afraid, it's a strong look.

Is it? looks like he can't decide, so will wear a bit of everything  

[tikay]

Morning Mr T.

The first tennis major of the season is 4 weeks away. After losing the US Open and his number 1 world ranking Djokovic has been rejuvenated, seemingly back to his invincible best of 3 years ago. So much so that I had my biggest ever bet last month on him to win the ATP finals. In the final against Nadal he dominated him so much that he made him look like he was moving with your dodgy back.

There are doubts over Djokovic's main rivals. Murray may not even play, Nadal's knee seemed to be playing up at the ATP, Federer is as old as Moses. Wawrinka or Del Potro could cause some problems but the way Djokovic played over the last 6 weeks of the season make the 6/4 available look inviting.

Suggest £40 Djokovic to win the Australian open with Boyles.


Let's hope the selectors give Monty a spin tonight as it will be a bit dull not having a bet on the match. By the way Betfred have paid out already on Australia to win the Ashes.

Thanks hector.

BetFred have paid out on the Ashes? Good grief!

We are safely aboard Mr Djokovic, thank you.

BET PLACED

[Tal]

Wool coat over denim jacket, shirt & tie, his stylist needs a good talking to!

You're mistaken I'm afraid, it's a strong look.

Is it? looks like he can't decide, so will wear a bit of everything  

That was for Fall 2010, Tbf.

He's back for a new collaboration with GStar-Raw this season, though:

Click to see full-size image.

[BigAdz]

Not a Fred recommend but if anyone fancies taking a bit of a chance I could see Double Ross running a big race in the December Gold Cup on Saturday.

He looks to be one of only two probable front runners and he has no weight. He jumps well for a novice and has good course form. So far his form is nothing to sing about, but some collateral form with Balder Success makes him looked well handicapped to me. It was also at a time when Twisters horses were running poorly, and they are doing better no.w A few in the race have done us some favours already this year and may not be so well handicapped now.

The clincher is 16s with Boyles and paying first 4, because I will be surprised if the full 16 stand their ground(Old friend Cantlow has been drifting in and out all day on Betty, for one).

I would also be keen on Cantlow, if McCoy sticks with him over the favourite Colour Squadron. However at declaration time, if he does opt for C,  the price will go immediately. Also, as I said, on Betty his price is fluctuating, so he may not even run, so a bit of pays your money, takes your choice.

McCoy to ride Colour Squadron and Choc Thornton on Cantlow

Any saver on Cantlow now Choc is on board will be laid back at any price!!

My poor poor Cantlow

Hi Adzy,

I know this is not a Fred recommend - you save the creme da le creme for us - but I may have an off-thread do. What would you sensibly recommend?

Morning Boss

To be honest, At the adjusted prices I would struggle to urge a value bet. Pleased we have 16s and first 4 on Double Ross, but 12-1 and first 3 not so appealing, probably the price is about right now.

As stated, I am treating Choc winners like I do "Billy One Horse" trainers, ie, you will go skint following them. Cantlow is a tricky ride and if he wins with Choc up I will be amazed, and just chalk it up to experience, with no bad feeling.

I think with DR and probably Eastern Meteor setting the pace, old favourite Johns Spirit will get the strong pace he needs, but he is up again in the weights and Jonjo isn't in the same rich vein of form the last couple of weeks. I can see him drift a bit on the day and he will get some cash on the day.

I wouldnt be surprised to see a bit of late money or even a recommend from PW for Silver Roque, as he ticks almost every trend box.

Cliffs. I am happy with the recommend on DR, but unless you got those terms, it don't look as appetising at the current price.

[TightEnd]

On Thursday night NFL the Chargers go to the Broncos

This should be a shootout, two top 10 offenses against two bottom eight defenses...Manning needing 5 TDs in 3 games to tie Brady's single season record, lots of touchdown options on both sides

The points spread is 55-56, the highest quote of Week 15. Despite this, I think it probably goes over.

Anyway, to value

Last weekend Wes Welker the Broncos possession receiver had a concussion and is ruled out for tonight. In the remainder of the game against the Titans the back up Tight End Jacob Tamme played possession receiver "in the slot".

Our boy is no. 84. There is no evidence he plays football on his phone either



Tamme had four catches on five targets for 47 yards Sunday against the Titans. This went into the 4am wake up and write it down notebook because TOTAL this season Tamme now only has 124 receiving yards. He is a back up to one of the league's break out players, but now gets the chance to feature

Manning's target distribution since Denver's Week 9 bye is as follows

Demaryius Thomas 48; Wes Welker and Eric Decker 39; Knowshon Moreno 22; Julius Thomas 17; Montee Ball and Jacob Tamme 13. 

Welker is now absent so there are anything up to 8-10 targets a game going spare, and Tamme now takes that role

Ladbrokes offer up prices on Denver First TD scorer

http://www.oddschecker.com/american-football/nfl/san-diego-chargers-at-denver-broncos/1st-touchdown-scorer-denver-broncos

They pop Tamme up at a very tasty 12-1

Of course the likes of Demaryius Thomas and Julius Thomas are the most likely players to be targetted, but the Tamme price is three times that of Julius

The NFL is a game of match ups too. After Julius torched the Chargers for 96 yards and a touchdown in Week 10 you'd expect him to receive a lot of attention. His 11 receiving scores this year rank third in the NFL behind only Graham (14) and Megatron (12)

Peyton and co would then routinely switch their passing focus to the less heralded player in single coverage if the CHargers try to take Julius out of the game

That's the theory anyway

Anyway. This is speculative value. Its based on my hope that I know more about Mr Tamme and his possible role in the offense than the Ladbrokes odds compiler.

An anytime TD option would be ideal, but there isn't one

So, to suffice £10 Jacob Tamme Denver's first TD scorer Ladbrokes tonight 12-1


background notes:

I note an ESPN blog that came up on my radar overnight.

http://espn.go.com/blog/denver-broncos/post/_/id/3114/tamme-rides-out-winds-of-change

"With Wes Welker ruled out for Thursday night's game against the San Diego Chargers due to a concussion -- his second concussion in the past four games -- Tamme figures to become a far bigger piece of the Broncos' puzzle on offense. It's a role Tamme had last season, before Welker was signed.

In 2012, when Tamme essentially worked out of the slot like a third wide receiver, he finished with 52 receptions, including a nine-catch day in a late-season win over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. After Welker joined the Broncos last March, Tamme's role in the offense went from regular contributor to spotty at best. Tamme didn't play more than 10 snaps on offense in any of the first 10 games of the season.

"You just prepare, do the work," Tamme said. "Something that's been a focus here from the beginning at the position, they want people who can do a lot of things at tight end. I feel like I can do a lot of different things, play in a lot of different spots."

But with Welker taking most of the snaps that were once Tamme's in the offense, Tamme simply went about the business of leading the team in special-teams tackles. He has nine, two more than special-teams captain David Bruton.

Tamme has played 285 plays on special teams through 13 games compared to 101 special-teams snaps all of last season. And on offense he has played 154 snaps so far this season (15.4 percent) compared to 528 plays on offense (46.2 percent) all of last season."

 

[TightEnd]

bet365 are offering even money that no English team makes it through to the final.

It looks a big price given two of the four will be unseeded in Monday's draw after finishing runners-up in their groups, namely Manchester City and Arsenal.

no English side made it past the last 16 last season.

The other two sides still in are Chelsea and Manchester United. Neither of whom look in the form and/or strength to hit the final to me, either of whom could hit the big boys in the open draw from the QF onwards

I know this is tieing up money til May at Evens but realistically no English team to make Lisbon is way shorter than Evens isn't it?