Tips for Tikay

[Snowball]

http://www.pdc.tv/news/article/1h5rtvl3mvinyzok7oqgzu3pi/title/ladbrokes-world-championship-day-one

Official pdc site

[Snowball]

The livedarts link that Tikay posted is good for inrunnin matches and Tournament stats but not so good for individual matches after the games have finished.

I wouldn't worry about the 100 average bet, any last night would have been a bonus imo but I still  expet it to be Home by the Quarters.

A couple nearly got iver it last night including Burnett who is quite the character.
 http://www.mirror.co.uk/sport/darts/richie-burnett-might-be-the-frank-spencer-187957

[TightEnd]

Daily Report

Profit on Month £135.41

Outstanding Bets £3249.66

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Aia1Hxq-NDNWdFk3UmlTSXMzTjRBTVNfOWRndVFsZHc&usp=drive_web#gid=33


A loss of £20 yesterday. One winner, the Oklahoma City Thunder, which sounds like a bad Western, and two losers, Mr Cullen in the Darts and Caldercruix at Southwell

In the cricket Cook scored 72, but nowhere near enough to challenge at the top of the runs charts, yet. Bell not out overnight and must be long odds now to score a century this match, or two this series

On the bowling front Broad took another wicket, Anderson 2, but with a maximum of five innings left to bowl that £50 at 3-1 bet is 7 wickets clear of Anderson in 2nd

Its Saturday, so a busy day fornew bets and long term positions

As I don't really follow Darts, I simply have no time to do so, can I ask for someone to do a daily summary of the PDC World Champs please? Summarise progress on our bets, and the Championship?


Now then a Quiz. Week 15 of the NFL takes place tomorrow. In one match where the two teams are in the same division, the away team is the favourite for the first time since October 8th 1989. So for the last 23 meetings at this venue the visitors have received points on betting spread/been underdogs to win

Tomorrow they are favourite

Which teams in which division?

[Snowball]

Im awaiting my laptop to be repaired or I would have done the Darts updates, working off my Mobile at the moment which is a nightmare at this time of year:(

[Marky147]

This is the live data link - http://live.dartsdata.com/Default.aspx

No good at the moment, obviously.

He uses this one for post match stuff http://www.dartsdatabase.co.uk/FixtureList.aspx?EventKey=4486

[tikay]

As I don't really follow Darts, I simply have no time to do so, can I ask for someone to do a daily summary of the PDC World Champs please? Summarise progress on our bets, and the Championship?

Yes, that makes sense, if someone could do that daily, after each nights play in the Worlds, that would help immensely.

Not chompy though, it needs to be accurate.

[KarmaDope]

Now then a Quiz. Week 15 of the NFL takes place tomorrow. In one match where the two teams are in the same division, the away team is the favourite for the first time since October 8th 1989. So for the last 23 meetings at this venue the visitors have received points on betting spread/been underdogs to win

Tomorrow they are favourite

Which teams in which division?

Bengals/Steelers (Bengals away) in the AFC North?

[tikay]

The livedarts link that Tikay posted is good for inrunnin matches and Tournament stats but not so good for individual matches after the games have finished.

I wouldn't worry about the 100 average bet, any last night would have been a bonus imo but I still  expet it to be Home by the Quarters.

A couple nearly got iver it last night including Burnett who is quite the character.
 http://www.mirror.co.uk/sport/darts/richie-burnett-might-be-the-frank-spencer-187957

Yes, I use that DURING games, it gives running averages after EVERY dart, in real-time, & is excellent. No good the day after, though.

[tikay]

On the bowling front Broad took another wicket, Anderson 2, but with a maximum of five innings left to bowl that £50 at 3-1 bet is 7 wickets clear of Anderson in 2nd

That looks like the Getting Out Stakes to me. Great bet, & thank goodness we are on.  

What a damp squib the whole Ashes thing has been. Very disappointing.

[millidonk]

Ooops. Yeah just posted pretty much the same thing in the darts thread. With a little bit of extra info. live.dartsdata the nuts for inplay stuff.

[Sheriff Fatman]

Just as few words about "homer" bets, such as Ant/Palace stuff, Sheriff/Barnsley, Plinop/Newcastle.

I seem to apply a much more rigid test to these.

Hope you guys understand its not personal.

Ant, for example, knows more about Palace than everyone else added together. So he does have some advantages. However, he also sees Palace through different eyes to the rest of us, & clearly is in love with them, & some of their players. This must affect his judgement, I would contend. 

There must be some really good bets by homers, of that there is no doubt, but I can't help myself, I automatically assess with a sort of auto-discount.

I hope that makes sense. Sort of.

Chompy is the same with his little local Team, but we auto-rebuff his stuff anyway.

I understand why you'd do that, and with any Barnsley bets I always try to step back from things and attempt to look at it rationally as far as possible, and try to give some justification for such.

In this case, it's the fact that 17/1 is out of line with the general market on this, which was around 10/1, 11/1.  11/1 is what I'd consider reasonable for McCourt, who basically is given freedom to roam and run directly at defenders (think of Gazza in his Tottenham days, where he was allowed to do this, and it's a similar role).  He has a gift, and we're trying to let him use it, and he's a definite threat to score whenever he's on the field.

He's scored twice doing this in recent weeks, and had numerous other 'near misses', and he's generally involved in pretty much every attack we have.  At home against another bottom 3 side, I'd anticipate us trying to utilise him as much as possible.

Attached are the goals.  Regardless of anything, you can enjoy them, especially the Boro one, but it's an easier explanation of what I'm describing above!

http://www.101greatgoals.com/blog/paddy-mccourt-the-derry-pele-scores-wonder-solo-goal-for-barnsley-v-middlesbrough/

http://www.101greatgoals.com/gvideos/paddy-mccourt-scores-a-twinkle-toes-beauty-for-barnsley-v-brighton/

[Newportlad]

Now then a Quiz. Week 15 of the NFL takes place tomorrow. In one match where the two teams are in the same division, the away team is the favourite for the first time since October 8th 1989. So for the last 23 meetings at this venue the visitors have received points on betting spread/been underdogs to win

Tomorrow they are favourite

Which teams in which division?

Bengals/Steelers (Bengals away) in the AFC North?

Has to be this one.

[tikay]

Just as few words about "homer" bets, such as Ant/Palace stuff, Sheriff/Barnsley, Plinop/Newcastle.

I seem to apply a much more rigid test to these.

Hope you guys understand its not personal.

Ant, for example, knows more about Palace than everyone else added together. So he does have some advantages. However, he also sees Palace through different eyes to the rest of us, & clearly is in love with them, & some of their players. This must affect his judgement, I would contend. 

There must be some really good bets by homers, of that there is no doubt, but I can't help myself, I automatically assess with a sort of auto-discount.

I hope that makes sense. Sort of.

Chompy is the same with his little local Team, but we auto-rebuff his stuff anyway.

I understand why you'd do that, and with any Barnsley bets I always try to step back from things and attempt to look at it rationally as far as possible, and try to give some justification for such.

In this case, it's the fact that 17/1 is out of line with the general market on this, which was around 10/1, 11/1.  11/1 is what I'd consider reasonable for McCourt, who basically is given freedom to roam and run directly at defenders (think of Gazza in his Tottenham days, where he was allowed to do this, and it's a similar role).  He has a gift, and we're trying to let him use it, and he's a definite threat to score whenever he's on the field.

He's scored twice doing this in recent weeks, and had numerous other 'near misses', and he's generally involved in pretty much every attack we have.  At home against another bottom 3 side, I'd anticipate us trying to utilise him as much as possible.

Attached are the goals.  Regardless of anything, you can enjoy them, especially the Boro one, but it's an easier explanation of what I'm describing above!

http://www.101greatgoals.com/blog/paddy-mccourt-the-derry-pele-scores-wonder-solo-goal-for-barnsley-v-middlesbrough/

http://www.101greatgoals.com/gvideos/paddy-mccourt-scores-a-twinkle-toes-beauty-for-barnsley-v-brighton/

Good stuff Sheriff, thsanks.

Have you applied this equation to the price?


Palace are around 5/1 (arguably bigger) to score first. So to work out price of fgs you simply multiply the probability of palace scoring first with the % of palace goals each player would be expected to score.

So if you think Chamakh scores 25% of Palaces goals (prob touch high) then his fgs would be 6x4=23-1
 

Happy to get on board if it passes that test.

Thanks for being understaning of the awkward "homer" situation.

[horseplayer]

was going to put up paddy myself for a small bet today

Has massive personal problems or would be a top six premier league player major talent good to see him get a run in a side though

Ignoring the fact i really like him as a player 17-1 is to big for a side at home to a fellow struggler and someone who is there main goal threat in recent weeks

Also add in the fact 888/unibet have very little clue on anything other than the major leagues and seem to pluck some very strange prices out of thin air

[Sheriff Fatman]

Just as few words about "homer" bets, such as Ant/Palace stuff, Sheriff/Barnsley, Plinop/Newcastle.

I seem to apply a much more rigid test to these.

Hope you guys understand its not personal.

Ant, for example, knows more about Palace than everyone else added together. So he does have some advantages. However, he also sees Palace through different eyes to the rest of us, & clearly is in love with them, & some of their players. This must affect his judgement, I would contend. 

There must be some really good bets by homers, of that there is no doubt, but I can't help myself, I automatically assess with a sort of auto-discount.

I hope that makes sense. Sort of.

Chompy is the same with his little local Team, but we auto-rebuff his stuff anyway.

I understand why you'd do that, and with any Barnsley bets I always try to step back from things and attempt to look at it rationally as far as possible, and try to give some justification for such.

In this case, it's the fact that 17/1 is out of line with the general market on this, which was around 10/1, 11/1.  11/1 is what I'd consider reasonable for McCourt, who basically is given freedom to roam and run directly at defenders (think of Gazza in his Tottenham days, where he was allowed to do this, and it's a similar role).  He has a gift, and we're trying to let him use it, and he's a definite threat to score whenever he's on the field.

He's scored twice doing this in recent weeks, and had numerous other 'near misses', and he's generally involved in pretty much every attack we have.  At home against another bottom 3 side, I'd anticipate us trying to utilise him as much as possible.

Attached are the goals.  Regardless of anything, you can enjoy them, especially the Boro one, but it's an easier explanation of what I'm describing above!

http://www.101greatgoals.com/blog/paddy-mccourt-the-derry-pele-scores-wonder-solo-goal-for-barnsley-v-middlesbrough/

http://www.101greatgoals.com/gvideos/paddy-mccourt-scores-a-twinkle-toes-beauty-for-barnsley-v-brighton/

Good stuff Sheriff, thsanks.

Have you applied this equation to the price?


Palace are around 5/1 (arguably bigger) to score first. So to work out price of fgs you simply multiply the probability of palace scoring first with the % of palace goals each player would be expected to score.

So if you think Chamakh scores 25% of Palaces goals (prob touch high) then his fgs would be 6x4=23-1
 

Happy to get on board if it passes that test.

Thanks for being understaning of the awkward "homer" situation.

Not had chance to do this, and about to leave the house, so will need to rely on someone else to do this for me.  Apologies, would do so if not in a rush, and gut-feel is it would pass an independent sniff-test.