Tips for Tikay

[exstream]

Ty ty.

Mvg 7-0! or 6-0, or whatever it is.

[claypole]

Ty ty.

Mvg 7-0! or 6-0, or whatever it is.

Lol - I have to disagree hugely.  I have bet at 11/10 Wright +3.5.  I think its huge when you take into account the pace of the game, Wrights avergaing and the fact market has probably overreacted to a 6-0 that was never a 6-0.

The bet of the century was Boyles 2/9 MvG most 180s, I wouldnt lay 1/16.  Long gone.

[Marky147]

Ty ty.

Mvg 7-0! or 6-0, or whatever it is.

Lol - I have to disagree hugely.  I have bet at 11/10 Wright +3.5.  I think its huge when you take into account the pace of the game, Wrights avergaing and the fact market has probably overreacted to a 6-0 that was never a 6-0.

The bet of the century was Boyles 2/9 MvG most 180s, I wouldnt lay 1/16.  Long gone.

I'm hoping he doesn't need the 3.5 start!

[JoeBeevers]

I think that MVG looks like a very good favourite and I would have been happy to back him around 2/5 which I believed we might have seen if he won 6-4 yesterday instead of 6-0. I do think that the market has over reacted and agree with Claypole on that.

As a result the handicap is probably a shade over too. I would rather take a 3.5 start than give it.

For another option if you take best prices MVG to win 7-4 7-5 or 7-6 you can get about 7/4, a shade better if you use the machine correctly.

[Doobs]

11-2 looks a near max to me

If you say the 5-2 is the right price (i happen to think it is a bit big) then bwin are saying they would be nearly 7-2 to qualify through the qualifier for the champions league. They will never be that price to win a euro qualifier

That can't be right.   It is about 6/5 to get through the qualifier.   If 5/2 is value then, I am sure £80 is fine though.

I was going to ask you to explain this, in the usual short words, but everyone else has now done so.

My bad.

Looking at it again I think you need to add 1 to 11/2 and 5/2.  So the maths is (13/2)/(7/2)-1 = 13/7-1 or 6/7.  So if they are better than 5/6 to win that qualifier the value must be good. 

FWIW the teams in that section last year included Arsenal, Schalke, Lyon, Milan, Zenit, Real Sociedad, PSV, PAOK, Fernabache and Paços de Ferreira.  So some draws are easier than other, and 5/6 to qalify against a random from there may bve value, but doesn't look massively so.  No idea if there is any seeding or which side of the seeding the Italian team gets if it exists.

As was said earlier, if the 5/2 is value, the 11/2 is likely to be so too.

[horseplayer]

suggest £100

Richard Hannon Jnr to beat Richard Hannon Snr's 2013 UK winners' tally

ladbrokes under future horse racing 2014 racing specials 2-1

hills 5-4 from 2-1 this morning same bet lads were 3-1 but 2-1 is still more than fair i make this about a 50-50 shot gives a nice year sweat as well

reasoning in a bit dont think the 2-1 will last to long


Hannon snr had 235 winners this calendar year obviously a lot but Hannon Junior has been doing a fair chunk of the work already for years so no reason to expect the strike rate to drop, throw in the fact Hannon Junior has 40 2 year olds coming in from another arab leading owner i struggle to see why the philosophy of lots of runners will change.

[doubleup]

11-2 looks a near max to me

If you say the 5-2 is the right price (i happen to think it is a bit big) then bwin are saying they would be nearly 7-2 to qualify through the qualifier for the champions league. They will never be that price to win a euro qualifier

That can't be right.   It is about 6/5 to get through the qualifier.   If 5/2 is value then, I am sure £80 is fine though.

I was going to ask you to explain this, in the usual short words, but everyone else has now done so.

My bad.

Looking at it again I think you need to add 1 to 11/2 and 5/2.  So the maths is (13/2)/(7/2)-1 = 13/7-1 or 6/7.  So if they are better than 5/6 to win that qualifier the value must be good. 

FWIW the teams in that section last year included Arsenal, Schalke, Lyon, Milan, Zenit, Real Sociedad, PSV, PAOK, Fernabache and Paços de Ferreira.  So some draws are easier than other, and 5/6 to qalify against a random from there may bve value, but doesn't look massively so.  No idea if there is any seeding or which side of the seeding the Italian team gets if it exists.

As was said earlier, if the 5/2 is value, the 11/2 is likely to be so too.

Is it possible the bet actually only means 1st 2 places?

The book seems to have a huge overlay otherwise .

[JaffaCake]

Hi Tony, we squeaked home again last night, by 0.5 points, but it's fun at the end when u know if the oppo score a two pointer u get ya money back, a three pointer and we're in OT and the bet carries on and if they miss u scoop. I had a max bet on last night, quite a lot went wrong, Wade and Cole both injured during game, very unusual in basketball, so we weathered the storm nicely.

Last day of the PP offer, I've put a middle arse bet on San Antonion -12. Big handicap, so I was in two minds, then I remembered Brooklyn are now shite (we backed them for the title as a bit of a banzai, oops) and the Spurs (down Tal, the Spurs) always thrash 'em, average of over 19 points in the last 5 meetings.

[Chompy]

No, defo not. 5/2 to finish third (effectively) and Evs to win their CL Qualifier = 3.5 x 2 = 7, minus 1, so about 6/1

In offering 11/2, bwin effectively make them a 10/11 flip to win their CH Qualifier.

[GreekWay]

I noticed that you mostly place the NBA bets with PP because of their cashback offer. Is it worth it long term to use PP instead of Pinnacle who operate with lower margins?

[doubleup]

the odds in the qualify book (ignoring the leaders) and the amount to put on to return a £1

1.5   0.67
5.8   0.17
8   0.13
81   0.01
2.75   0.36

So thats £1.34 to get back £2

[Tal]

@ JaffaCake, will David Robinson and Sean Elliott be playing for the Spurs tonight?

[doubleup]

the odds in the qualify book (ignoring the leaders) and the amount to put on to return a £1

1.5   0.67
5.8   0.17
8   0.13
81   0.01
2.75   0.36

So thats £1.34 to get back £2

https://sports.bwin.com/en/sports#categoryIds=406&leagueIds=42&page=0&sportId=4

also the bet has Sunday - 5/18/2014 above -- further reinforcing my belief that it is only the top two in the league

[Chompy]

Someone gonna contact them?

[horseplayer]

http://www.theirishfield.ie/site/article.php?id=3846&cid=5

excellent article on Hurricane Fly