Tips for Tikay

[doubleup]

For stakes just use 1/2 Kelly assuming 5% ROI

All you need to do is put in the odds and the bankroll in this calculator (download it)



https://drive.google.com/file/d/0Byg8Wbbo5p2uZnFvWEFXX0VnYU0/edit?usp=sharing

[Chompy]

had two emails from bwin this morning

first one says bet stands if they qualify for champions league

second one says bet is top two only

they havent a clue imo

This is incred. Wonder if they're aware the (TfT) world is watching.

[tikay]

''''A lot of the Restricted stuff is on Markets where only PP & 365 have markets up, horse race prices the night before, for example, & nobody else offers the Market that early.  

And have you seen the grief I get when I take a nadge uder "Best Price", someone is guaranteed to Post minutes later "you coulda got a better price with x"!

I don't believe the stakes decrease towards the end of a winning month, not that I am aware. I try to encourage people to suggest stakes. If, say, Bazza recommends a boxer & says £20, or £50, I believe that suggests his confidence in the bet. I HAVE to listen to that. Unfortunately, many folks still do not give me a recommended bet size. More headaches ensue, then. It is far easier for me to modify a proposed bet size, then for me to guess at how much to bet. But that is just the official "FRED", which is really just a scorecard, the mortar in the brickwork sort of thing. Others who follow Fred can bet as big as they like, or feel comfy with. Me, I'm scared, I really am. Don't forget, this is real money I'm punting with, & I'm relying on info from others when I bet.''''

On some of those small side markets you won't get on anywhere else and that's certainly a blow. As for bet sizes it should deffo be down to the poster to suggest a size for those reasons. It gives a sense of confidence and makes it easier for you, we know they wont all win and some will be speculative  but not all 5/1 chances put up by the same person would have the same strength to them so need to have stakes suggested really.

Don't be scared with the cash Tony, you are a winning punter and there are plenty of good judges contributing to your bet list. It's a great position really because you are the centrepiece of the info exchange that takes place, its a great spot to be in. Honest truth, I had abs nothing to do with some of the best bets I have had this week, they were given to me by someone else who is a good judge, in this thread you are getting that many times over.

Exactly that. But I can't force folks to suggest the bet size. A chunk to Bert is a tiddlearse to Charlie.

I can't help but be a bit "scared" Phil, it's my nature. I'm not "Mr Arrogant I get the lot every night", I'm more Minnie Mouse. We are what we are.

As to information exchange, I get (almost) ALL my bets from others, & of course I'm extremely grateful. I do a few bets off my own back, off-thread, but not many. So in return for investing a lot of my time, I'm given a ton of great bets, so I'm deffo not complaining.   

The whole process we are going through today is good, really good, & I do it in every aspect of my life. How can we do this better?"

[horseplayer]

had two emails from bwin this morning

first one says bet stands if they qualify for champions league

second one says bet is top two only

they havent a clue imo

This is incred. Wonder if they're aware the (TfT) world is watching.

they are running scared of my massive £15 outlay

[tikay]

For stakes just use 1/2 Kelly assuming 5% ROI

All you need to do is put in the odds and the bankroll in this calculator (download it)



https://drive.google.com/file/d/0Byg8Wbbo5p2uZnFvWEFXX0VnYU0/edit?usp=sharing

Thanks 2xUp, I'll try & get my head round that later.

It would add some structure to us, but it takes away the "bet sizing/confidence" factor. I think that factor is key. Camel sometimes gives us a £10 bet, other times a £300 jobbie. 

[BigAdz]

I agree with Keith re Ed's post too and of course if anyone is going to spot an angle in the Prem/other leagues once the teams are out it is Keith. There have been spots over the year where you abs should have had multiples Tony. One of the darts guys put up a bet on under the averages in the Dubai darts because the event was taking place on an outdoor stage and would be wind affected. In that spot all the averages were likely to be in too high and I think the under won in most of them. It was like betting weather related multiples in day NFL or Rugger where you are either on the right side of every bet because the weather does become a factor or you just have to win if it doesn't. So your value is multiplied thru each event.

There were a couple of footy matches on the last day of the Championship season that had a direct baring on each other, if one team was winning then the 2 teams in the other game would be happy with a draw and as it happened those two teams spent the last part of that game passing it around in defence to run the clock out as their fans chanted 'Yorkshire Yorkshire' and had a communal love in as Chompy's boys went down.

Tal posted summat the other day regarding outside trap bias at a dog meeting, back in the day Monmore used to have an amazing bias to the outside when it was very cold. We used to watch the first set of races and if there was a bias we would bet the outside traps on the early birds in the late races ( in those days they priced up the last 4 or so because the horse racing would have finished by then) and do muitis, fcast, fcast doubles etc. 99% of the time they are mug bets but if you think you have a bias or an angle like these examples you have to consider multi's.

But Phil, I dont know how to seperate the wheat from the chaff unless Elders step in & advise. You are a Sports Betting Pro, it's almost instinct to you. To me, it's beyond my ability to know.

So we now have THREE areas to address.

redarmi said a while back we should take lesser edges but have more bets. For example, instead of our 2,500 bets yielding 5%, we'd be better doing 5,000 bets @ 3%. I agree entirely, but where do Tighty, & I, Mere to a degree too, find the time to manage a doubled workload?

Multiples. You know my views, everyone does, but fine, the Pros know better, I accept that. But how do I know which is or is not a good value double? I don't have the knowledge to identify them.

Upping the stakes. See my reply earlier today. Not one person has replied to me yet.......

Why not work in tandem with an appointed "Elder" a day each week. Most appear to be Pro Bettors and Im sure are fairly close at hand to TFT for the majority of at least a day each week. Get some sort of rota going so they can pass comment/sanction/rubber stamp/stand in and should at least provide assistance for around a min of 4 days a week.
Im sure they aren't all up themselves enough to think it is below them....

Thanks Adz, that's a start.

I would certainly, 100%, like some help from the Elders & Betters. But I'm not sure "in tandem" works, it would be pretty awkward I think, but I'd happily step aside from the decisions x days per week. They place the bet themselves though, & it becomes an official Fred bet, is that the suggestion? If so, no objection from me.

In case anyone forgets, we are doing pretty well so far, most punters would die for a 5% return, but I do think we need to do this self-examine thing from time to time, & try to find ways to improve. And we must never forget the Fun Factor. Without that, I'd be outa here tomorrow, for me (maybe just me) it has to be fun. 

I think for me half the fun and responsibility is that it is YOUR money Tikay. You are the face/the glue that holds this thread together, and it is the need to impress you with the bet/research/savvy, call it what you will that makes it.

If you were to let someone else put the bets on it becomes somewhat notional. I could agree to all sorts for example, just to keep the peace, and still not place them, which sort of defeats the object. Contributors probably also don't give a rats, if I win or lose money following their selection, you on the other hand people do care(strange as that may seem), and that is where the care element comes in on staking.

The guys that know me here, know I bet a lot more than the recommends I make, but I also feel an obligation not to encourage others to try and follow. I sense some contributors do the opposite and put up numbers that they don't bet themselves. You bring that balance through that wisdom thing you have, cos you is old etc, to ensure chaos and vanity don't ruin things.

Anyway, as ever not worded terribly well, but I trust you understand.

[tikay]

I agree with Keith re Ed's post too and of course if anyone is going to spot an angle in the Prem/other leagues once the teams are out it is Keith. There have been spots over the year where you abs should have had multiples Tony. One of the darts guys put up a bet on under the averages in the Dubai darts because the event was taking place on an outdoor stage and would be wind affected. In that spot all the averages were likely to be in too high and I think the under won in most of them. It was like betting weather related multiples in day NFL or Rugger where you are either on the right side of every bet because the weather does become a factor or you just have to win if it doesn't. So your value is multiplied thru each event.

There were a couple of footy matches on the last day of the Championship season that had a direct baring on each other, if one team was winning then the 2 teams in the other game would be happy with a draw and as it happened those two teams spent the last part of that game passing it around in defence to run the clock out as their fans chanted 'Yorkshire Yorkshire' and had a communal love in as Chompy's boys went down.

Tal posted summat the other day regarding outside trap bias at a dog meeting, back in the day Monmore used to have an amazing bias to the outside when it was very cold. We used to watch the first set of races and if there was a bias we would bet the outside traps on the early birds in the late races ( in those days they priced up the last 4 or so because the horse racing would have finished by then) and do muitis, fcast, fcast doubles etc. 99% of the time they are mug bets but if you think you have a bias or an angle like these examples you have to consider multi's.

But Phil, I dont know how to seperate the wheat from the chaff unless Elders step in & advise. You are a Sports Betting Pro, it's almost instinct to you. To me, it's beyond my ability to know.

So we now have THREE areas to address.

redarmi said a while back we should take lesser edges but have more bets. For example, instead of our 2,500 bets yielding 5%, we'd be better doing 5,000 bets @ 3%. I agree entirely, but where do Tighty, & I, Mere to a degree too, find the time to manage a doubled workload?

Multiples. You know my views, everyone does, but fine, the Pros know better, I accept that. But how do I know which is or is not a good value double? I don't have the knowledge to identify them.

Upping the stakes. See my reply earlier today. Not one person has replied to me yet.......

Why not work in tandem with an appointed "Elder" a day each week. Most appear to be Pro Bettors and Im sure are fairly close at hand to TFT for the majority of at least a day each week. Get some sort of rota going so they can pass comment/sanction/rubber stamp/stand in and should at least provide assistance for around a min of 4 days a week.
Im sure they aren't all up themselves enough to think it is below them....

Thanks Adz, that's a start.

I would certainly, 100%, like some help from the Elders & Betters. But I'm not sure "in tandem" works, it would be pretty awkward I think, but I'd happily step aside from the decisions x days per week. They place the bet themselves though, & it becomes an official Fred bet, is that the suggestion? If so, no objection from me.

In case anyone forgets, we are doing pretty well so far, most punters would die for a 5% return, but I do think we need to do this self-examine thing from time to time, & try to find ways to improve. And we must never forget the Fun Factor. Without that, I'd be outa here tomorrow, for me (maybe just me) it has to be fun. 

I think for me half the fun and responsibility is that it is YOUR money Tikay. You are the face/the glue that holds this thread together, and it is the need to impress you with the bet/research/savvy, call it what you will that makes it.

If you were to let someone else put the bets on it becomes somewhat notional. I could agree to all sorts for example, just to keep the peace, and still not place them, which sort of defeats the object. Contributors probably also don't give a rats, if I win or lose money following their selection, you on the other hand people do care(strange as that may seem), and that is where the care element comes in on staking.

The guys that know me here, know I bet a lot more than the recommends I make, but I also feel an obligation not to encourage others to try and follow. I sense some contributors do the opposite and put up numbers that they don't bet themselves. You bring that balance through that wisdom thing you have, cos you is old etc, to ensure chaos and vanity don't ruin things.

Anyway, as ever not worded terribly well, but I trust you understand.

Actually, Mr Wenger Fan, that's pretty much nail on head. I'm not entirely - or even at all - sure why it is so, but I think you have nailed it. People here ARE very responsible because it is someone else's money. Weird, eh?

The only other thing which is a 100% necessity to me is keeping the Fun Factor. Honestly, if we can't have a bit of fun along the way, I'm not interested. I have grief all day, every day, elsewhere, so this is my outlet for de-stressing & relaxing, along with my little poker challenge every night, Next Door. Made £65 last night. SIXTY FIVE QUID. I crush. And my passion for photography. And aircraft. And concrete. And allotments. And sex. One of them has to go.

Anyway, it is Friday afternoon, & I need to go pursue one of my passions.

[Omm]

I agree with Keith re Ed's post too and of course if anyone is going to spot an angle in the Prem/other leagues once the teams are out it is Keith. There have been spots over the year where you abs should have had multiples Tony. One of the darts guys put up a bet on under the averages in the Dubai darts because the event was taking place on an outdoor stage and would be wind affected. In that spot all the averages were likely to be in too high and I think the under won in most of them. It was like betting weather related multiples in day NFL or Rugger where you are either on the right side of every bet because the weather does become a factor or you just have to win if it doesn't. So your value is multiplied thru each event.

There were a couple of footy matches on the last day of the Championship season that had a direct baring on each other, if one team was winning then the 2 teams in the other game would be happy with a draw and as it happened those two teams spent the last part of that game passing it around in defence to run the clock out as their fans chanted 'Yorkshire Yorkshire' and had a communal love in as Chompy's boys went down.

Tal posted summat the other day regarding outside trap bias at a dog meeting, back in the day Monmore used to have an amazing bias to the outside when it was very cold. We used to watch the first set of races and if there was a bias we would bet the outside traps on the early birds in the late races ( in those days they priced up the last 4 or so because the horse racing would have finished by then) and do muitis, fcast, fcast doubles etc. 99% of the time they are mug bets but if you think you have a bias or an angle like these examples you have to consider multi's.

But Phil, I dont know how to seperate the wheat from the chaff unless Elders step in & advise. You are a Sports Betting Pro, it's almost instinct to you. To me, it's beyond my ability to know.

So we now have THREE areas to address.

redarmi said a while back we should take lesser edges but have more bets. For example, instead of our 2,500 bets yielding 5%, we'd be better doing 5,000 bets @ 3%. I agree entirely, but where do Tighty, & I, Mere to a degree too, find the time to manage a doubled workload?

Multiples. You know my views, everyone does, but fine, the Pros know better, I accept that. But how do I know which is or is not a good value double? I don't have the knowledge to identify them.

Upping the stakes. See my reply earlier today. Not one person has replied to me yet.......

Why not work in tandem with an appointed "Elder" a day each week. Most appear to be Pro Bettors and Im sure are fairly close at hand to TFT for the majority of at least a day each week. Get some sort of rota going so they can pass comment/sanction/rubber stamp/stand in and should at least provide assistance for around a min of 4 days a week.
Im sure they aren't all up themselves enough to think it is below them....

Thanks Adz, that's a start.

I would certainly, 100%, like some help from the Elders & Betters. But I'm not sure "in tandem" works, it would be pretty awkward I think, but I'd happily step aside from the decisions x days per week. They place the bet themselves though, & it becomes an official Fred bet, is that the suggestion? If so, no objection from me.

In case anyone forgets, we are doing pretty well so far, most punters would die for a 5% return, but I do think we need to do this self-examine thing from time to time, & try to find ways to improve. And we must never forget the Fun Factor. Without that, I'd be outa here tomorrow, for me (maybe just me) it has to be fun. 

I think for me half the fun and responsibility is that it is YOUR money Tikay. You are the face/the glue that holds this thread together, and it is the need to impress you with the bet/research/savvy, call it what you will that makes it.

If you were to let someone else put the bets on it becomes somewhat notional. I could agree to all sorts for example, just to keep the peace, and still not place them, which sort of defeats the object. Contributors probably also don't give a rats, if I win or lose money following their selection, you on the other hand people do care(strange as that may seem), and that is where the care element comes in on staking.

The guys that know me here, know I bet a lot more than the recommends I make, but I also feel an obligation not to encourage others to try and follow. I sense some contributors do the opposite and put up numbers that they don't bet themselves. You bring that balance through that wisdom thing you have, cos you is old etc, to ensure chaos and vanity don't ruin things.

Anyway, as ever not worded terribly well, but I trust you understand.

Actually, Mr Wenger Fan, that's pretty much nail on head. I'm not entirely - or even at all - sure why it is so, but I think you have nailed it. People here ARE very responsible because it is someone else's money. Weird, eh?

The only other thing which is a 100% necessity to me is keeping the Fun Factor. Honestly, if we can't have a bit of fun along the way, I'm not interested. I have grief all day, every day, elsewhere, so this is my outlet for de-stressing & relaxing, along with my little poker challenge every night. And my passion for photography. And aircraft. And concrete. And sex. One of them has to go.

Get rid of the sex, always ends in trouble.

[Tal]

Just combine a couple of them, tikay. Problem solved.

[RickBFA]

I'm a bit averse to accas, I can't help myself.

I know about the suggested value, da de da, but the fact is, bookies LOVE people doing Accas, as you have to beat them 3, 4 or 5 times to win. It's quite hard to beat them once, in truth. Bookies LOVE punters who place Accas, as that is where so much of their profit comes from. They'd far rather we all done Accas than singles. They'll go skint waiting for me, though.   

Morning all,

Have a few minutes spare so just wanted to make a brief post as I've seen this logic from Teeks a couple of times now and thought I'd offer a brief piece on the subject... I realise I ramble more than most so will try to keep to bullet point format.

1. Tikay, you are correct in that, generally speaking, bookies do love punters who place doubles/trebles/accas. The very best example of this is the football coupon punter who tries to pick the 10 results from the weekend's Premier League games as an example.

2. This is because, generally speaking, the bookmaker expects to have a positive edge on any given market. In the example above, when he is laying Arsenal at 4/6, the 'true' price may be closer to 1.71 for example. This gives the bookmaker an implied win of £2.53 for every £100 staked.

3. As multiple selections are 'strung' together, the bookmakers margin increases - as the punter is rolling forward less than he should. In the example above if Arsenal were doubled with Chelsea at Evs (whom should be 11/10) then Billy Bunter rolls £166.67 from the Arsenal win, which then cops leaving him £333.34, of which £233.34 is profit. Sounds great, but in reality his £100 should have become £171, which at 11/10 true price (instead of the evens offered) becomes £359.10, of which £259.10 is profit. The punter has won £25.76 less than he should have done!!


HOWEVER

4. We have seen that the flaw in the piece is that the margin multiplies as selections are strung together.

5. This is generally accepted as bad news as the bookies margin multiplies up. But.....what if the punter had a positive expectation, rather than the bookmaker?

6. Fred quickly accepted beating the price as a good sign, it implies +EV to the punter. If Fred has £100 on a horse @ 2/1 that has a true price of 6/4, Fred has 'made' £20 in EV from the bet. His returns are £300 where they should be £250.

7. Imagine Fred had two of these in a day, both bet at 2/1 where they should be 6/4. If these were placed in a winning double the return would be £100 --> £300 --> £900, for a profit of £800. If the true price of 6/4 had been taken on both selections, it would have looked like £100 --> £250 --> £625, for a profit of £525. In this instance, 84% of the time Fred loses £100, and 16% of the time he wins £800. Fred has made £44 in EV from a £100 bet.

8. Securing prices in excess of the true price, and multiplying them together, has allowed for the margin to multiply in the punters favour.

CONCLUSION

If the margin is in the bookmaker's favour, multiples are bad, as the 'edge' rolls up for them.

If the margin is in the punter's favour, multiples are good, as the 'edge' rolls up for us.

Interim volatility is increased owing to the decreased % likelihood of the selected events occurring (the phenomenon you refer to of it being tough enough to beat the bookies once, let alone twice/thrice/etc.)

Losing spells will be longer as the punter waits for his returns to realise 'true expectation'.

But in the longterm the punter is putting himself in fantastic value spots, which is of course the aim of the game.



Good luck,

Ed

Posts like this are what make this thread so great to read.

Really loving the explanation and logic.

The vast majority of my bets are singles but I like to throw in the odd multiple sometimes if I think its looks good value (couldn't have explained it like Ed though).

The other angle with multiples is we know bookmakers want us to place multiples so using them carefully will also hopefully help keep accounts open that might otherwise get closed. Its playing the bookies at their own game - especially if they think you are a mug when in reality the positive EV is ours.

[Doobs]

Sandown off tommorow

Not in the least surprised, it is seriously wet down here.

So, can we exploit that in any particular market? Hall Green cherries was one suggestion, any more?

We've been outside looking at ducks the last hour and a half.  One short shower.  Some big puddles mind.  We are in Barnes.  

[Kmac84]

There have been some outstanding contributions today and I think much of what has said had to be said.  

Tikay I fully understand you felt uneasy with the Hibs bet yesterday, you are probably not alone in having not watched a Scottish League match.  I would think many on here haven't seen much of any other teams from Scotland other than Celtic or Rangers before they went into liquidation.  

I am very confident in my understanding of the Scottish game and although we won last night it really should have been much easier.  I still think we had outstanding value.  

For many markets a number of the books just copy each other and change the price marginally, its lazy.  Moreso  with the Scottish Markets imo because we don't get the same level of attention on the game  as you do in the EPL/Championship etc.

I am at work just now so not able to give a full reply but I think Bobby, Camel, Ed etc are 100% spot on.  

I appreciate others dont want you risking more money on their selections than they would themselves but they have to understand that this thread is partly business and in order that it continues to be a success then it has to keep moving and changing and perhaps if they feel uneasy with the money on the line then they shouldn't be gambling in the first place and it might be time for them to move forward.

I think it would be easier to have a standard bet as a default say 1% of the roll and then this can be increased depending on the confidence/thought proces of the individual suggesting the bet.   I thought the iea was that as the roll grows our bets should grow to force our edge? If we are not punishing the books to max at every turn we are giving away value.  If we are giving away value there then why are we concentrating on getting best price etc at every turn?

Regarding the multiples I totally see your point of view but your arguement of "I'm too old to change my ways " doesn't wash, my future father in law is an old bigot and racist and I have heard that excuse banded about for him for too long, he's old, he's set in his way, thats his opinion blah de blah but when there is obvious evidence to the contrary there is no reason for holding onto views that are contrary to what we knw actually happens in the real world.  That example is probably not the best to use, but lets just say he now understands never to speak out of turn in my copmpany because I wont let it go unchallenged.

[horseplayer]

"I appreciate others dont want you risking more money on their selections than they would themselves but they have to understand that this thread is partly business and in order that it continues to be a success then it has to keep moving and changing and perhaps if they feel uneasy with the money on the line then they shouldn't be gambling in the first place and it might be time for them to move forward."

partly business?

not sure i agree with that but Tikay is best placed to answer

good bet last night much the better side in the end

[bobby1]

Pretty sure i posted the same this time last year

This is not supposed to be a thread guiding people how to be a pro punter, pretty sure the majority of viewers and even the most regular contributors are not pro's (myself, Hector, Tighty and Adz are 4 of the most frequent tipsters as far as im aware none of us are full time correct me if im wrong)

Yes perhaps the stakes needs sticking up a bit but if that makes some of the more regular contributors less likely to stick stuff up that is not a good thing for the future of thread.

A large proportion of people betting would bite your arm of for a 5% roi over this long a period

I know of several regulars who have asked me not to increase their bet sizes, as it makes them uncomfy. I have to respect that, or we lose them.

I do see that is important and it is nice that people treat your money as they would their own so it helps if they suggest stakes. There are some spots tho where an amount is mentioned and a smaller amount is placed, I actually wondered if there was some in joke I had missed when Chompy keeps getting knocked back. I know you say you bet them off thread yourself but the figs on here don't show those numbers.


IMO I think all this talk of elders and pro's could be off putting for some people too. There is going to be very little someone you consider an elder can add to a downhill skier bet or a darts average, which elder for example could add anything more to Adz or Chompy's horse racing stuff?

PS, that's about three mentions of Chompy today, just to clarfy there is no bromance going on.

[bobby1]

Just combine a couple of them, tikay. Problem solved.

maybe shagging under a motorway bridge near Heathrow could enhance the process?