Tips for Tikay

[Rubbish2407]

Someone, think it was Horsey, once said that they had a way of placing mobile bets on a computer. Anyone know how?

[sonour]

Australia batting first at Cape Town. Hello

47-0 off 7. Hello

Such an evocative ground, table mountain in the background, blue skies, good pitch

Click to see full-size image.

For the Lyon bet the bowlers are

Shane Watson
Mitchell Johnson
Ryan Harris
James Pattinson
Nathan Lyon

So we want Australia to bat for as long as possible ?

[TightEnd]

Australia batting first at Cape Town. Hello

47-0 off 7. Hello

Such an evocative ground, table mountain in the background, blue skies, good pitch

Click to see full-size image.

For the Lyon bet the bowlers are

Shane Watson
Mitchell Johnson
Ryan Harris
James Pattinson
Nathan Lyon

So we want Australia to bat for as long as possible ?

Yes

Longer the better, let the pitch wear and let the Australian captain have a lot of runs on the baord to set attacking fields for the spinner, who we want to bowl long spells

[tikay]

February 2014  Figures

Closed bets: 88
Amount wagered: £2,778.50
Profit/loss: -£435.45
ROI: -16.01%

Number of "sports" bet on: 11
Most popular: Horses (30), Football (15),  RU (9).
Most (and only) profitable:  Misc. (£202.86), Tennis (£202.86), Cricket (£10.00)
Least profitable: RU (-£-129.00), Golf (-£116.50), Football (-£78.98)

Number of tipsters: 26 including 2 new tipsters.


Overall statistics (since February 2012)

Total closed bets: 2,900
Amount wagered: £92,553.8
Profit/loss: £3,745.62
ROI: 4.05%

Number of "sports" bet on: 30
Most popular:  Football (719), Horses(699), Golf (251), Cricket(198).

Most and least profitable sports (based on aggregate profit/loss) are:
        
Sport               Profit  Amt Bet       ROI   No.
Horses   2,174.83   23,559.52   9.23   699
Football   2,036.54   22,481.89   9.06   719
Misc.   692.05   3,028.58   22.85   75
...
[bFormula1   -383.00   824.00   -46.48   31
Basketball   -954.18   3,008.89   -31.71   74
Golf   -1,131.76   6,775.34   -16.70   251[/b]


The complete list is here:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Aia1Hxq-NDNWdFk3UmlTSXMzTjRBTVNfOWRndVFsZHc&usp=drive_web#gid=4


Total number of tipsters: 143


Number of different bookies/exchanges/agents: 37

Most and least profitable bookies (based on aggregate profit/loss) are:
        
Bookie          Profit     Amt Bet   ROI     No.
BoyleSports   1,520.40   4,375.45   34.75   110
BetVictor   1,426.16   13,546.50   10.53   434
WilliamHill   1,286.89   15,044.66   8.55   486
...
Bwin   -346.35   2,295.00   -15.09   60
BetFred   -566.91   6,174.00   -9.18   202
Betfair   -691.72   10,403.73   -6.65   213


The complete list is here:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Aia1Hxq-NDNWdFk3UmlTSXMzTjRBTVNfOWRndVFsZHc&usp=drive_web#gid=7


As previously posted by tikay I have archived off all the old bets as the spreadsheet was reaching the limits of what can be achieved using Google docs.
The archive can be found here:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Aia1Hxq-NDNWdHVrekx6T0REUXVNOWw5YTVWa0pWZGc#gid=7

Thanks for these Mr Mere, though I have to deduct one point, as they were a little late this month.

Good to see a couple of new Tipsters, there were none in January for the first month ever. We need more new Tipsters please, if only to rebut the complaints I receive of Fred being a clique. Standard stuff, I guess.

Another bad month, the 2nd in a row, after we went 9 (?) straight months of profits.

Is this just variance, or are we doing something wrong? Certainly, I've been less attentive, or even available, due to UKPC workload, ditto Tighty, & I've missed plenty of good winners, but presumably, I'll have missed losers, too. 

There is no doubt we ran well  for most of 2013, so maybe the curve is just correcting itself.

We should not forget our two most successful sports, Football & Horse Racing, both have an ROI of around 9%, over a sample size, in both cases, of around 700. This is very good indeed, I'd say. 

In February, as it happens, we only made a profit in 3 Sports, being "Misc" (Novellty Shite such as Splash & CBB , I assume?), Tennis, & Cricket. We seem to have lost money in February on RU (6 Nations?), Golf, &, a rarity for us, Football. 

Anyway, if anyone has constructive suggestions to explain, or correct going forward, our last 2 bad months, fire away please. Hopefully, it is just variance. I'm not having a panic attack about 2 bad months, but it behoves us to constantly self-examine these things.

[Marky147]

http://www.paddypower.com/racing/horse-racing-specials/world-hurdle-special

BET SUGGESTION £100 AT FISHERS CROSS 4/5 or whatever the max is

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/sport/horseracing/10668798/At-Fishers-Cross-is-my-best-chance-of-winning-the-World-Hurdle.html

Very positive news in the above column. Stops short of actually committing but makes ATC a 1/3 shot for mine.

Some quotes from it

"Having, hopefully, chosen right by going for My Tent Or Yours in the Champion Hurdle, the next big decision was whether I ride At Fisher’s Cross or More of That in the World Hurdle and I can reveal that I am siding with At Fishers Cross."

"I have also decided to ride Kid Cassidy in the Champion Chase."

Surprised if you will get the £100 on but looks a cracking bet to me. If either horse does not line up then the bet is void.

Thanks John,

That Market on PP has disappeared, so I don't even know what it was.

AFC remains available @ 6/1 for the World Hurdle, though.

Looking at the price, I'm guessing it was for At Fishers Cross to beat More of That in the World Hurdle.

[Chompy]

Ajose just fair @ 11/5 to score any time v creepies.

Crawley are in a false position and deservedly won 2-0 at London Road earlier in the season, when Fatty Tomlin spent most of the match on the phone to his agent (Celtic in for him during the game).

I don't see this being full of goals. In fact, another 1-0 away win wouldn't be a surprise. and we want Britt to score all Poshies goals anyhoo.

Are you going mate? I got Nicky at 21/10 with 365. Even or worse elsewhere. Pitch will play a huge part today.

Nah, not for me. Bet356 are the only ones that seem to price up anytime scorer markets fairly at the moment. They are comfortably best price about the majority of players in this match and I'm inclined to think most of their odds are fair, while the rest are well under.

If this had the makings of an Oldham-style shootout then 11/5 would look decent but, with Big Ben and Brisley at the back, and Bozzy sat in front we are much tighter. Would settle for a 1-0 win on the Creepy bog and a 0-0 away at T'Blades on Tuesday.

Ajose 13-2 to score first maybe a better bet than 11-5 anytime?

[Doobs]

http://www.paddypower.com/racing/horse-racing-specials/world-hurdle-special

BET SUGGESTION £100 AT FISHERS CROSS 4/5 or whatever the max is

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/sport/horseracing/10668798/At-Fishers-Cross-is-my-best-chance-of-winning-the-World-Hurdle.html

Very positive news in the above column. Stops short of actually committing but makes ATC a 1/3 shot for mine.

Some quotes from it

"Having, hopefully, chosen right by going for My Tent Or Yours in the Champion Hurdle, the next big decision was whether I ride At Fisher’s Cross or More of That in the World Hurdle and I can reveal that I am siding with At Fishers Cross."

"I have also decided to ride Kid Cassidy in the Champion Chase."

Surprised if you will get the £100 on but looks a cracking bet to me. If either horse does not line up then the bet is void.

Thanks John,

That Market on PP has disappeared, so I don't even know what it was.

AFC remains available @ 6/1 for the World Hurdle, though.

Looking at the price, I'm guessing it was for At Fishers Cross to beat More of That in the World Hurdle.

Think it must have been his ride in the race.

[tikay]

Australia batting first at Cape Town. Hello

47-0 off 7. Hello

Such an evocative ground, table mountain in the background, blue skies, good pitch

Click to see full-size image.

For the Lyon bet the bowlers are

Shane Watson
Mitchell Johnson
Ryan Harris
James Pattinson
Nathan Lyon

Tighty - URGENT.

You noted yesterday, in passing, that Australia were available @ 11/5 as a "real punters bet", because it was very much a price based upon winning the toss. Many of us availed ourselves of that price or close to it, but that's a non-Fred matter.

As of right now, with Australia on 65-0, they can be backed @ 2.54 on Betfair, much less with the Bookies.

This is a steal, surely?

Worth £50? If so, give me a minimum price to take, as the price must be dropping rapidly.

[tikay]

still fine shame you missed the 8.4 put £25 in at 8.8 u will get matched quickly as there is only small money in at 8.8.  Its fine at that price.

For the record, this was subsequently MATCHED @ 8.8.

[tikay]

We have had £50 @ 2.48, with BetFair, on Australia to beat South Africa.

Tighty replied to my earlier question via Text (he is probably driving), & said that Australia @ 6/4 would be a great bet. I missed the 6/4, but 2.48, after commission, (so around 2.36?) still feels value.

£50 @ 2.48, BetFair, Australia to beat South Africa.

BET PLACED

[tikay]

....and in a piece of perfect timing, Australia lose their first wicket.

Still, 81/1 still looks pretty damn good.

[horseplayer]

sorry was in a rush as knew market would be pulled quickly

it was purely which ride he would take in the race.

Rubbish it was me i will pm you tommorow if i dont pm me to remind me might not be back until late tommorow mind.

Have a good weekend all

[tikay]

Australia now 100/1, with Warner going along nicely on 66.

Looking good on all fronts.

[Tal]

Inbox pings...

Sky Bet are now Non Runner Money Back AND Best Odds Guaranteed on every race at the Cheltenham Festival!

[hector62]

Morning Mr T.

No curates egg in yesterdays tennis, more cadburys creme egg.

Berdych eased into the final and will surprisingly be playing Federer. Berdych priced at 6/4 ish and I think I am the only one in the world to make him favourite. Each way landed and anyone already on ( probably just me and sonour ) can enjoy the freebie.

Dimitrov beat Murray in 3 sets to set up a final with Anderson. Dimitrov is 1/2 favourite and will make the early morning squeeze quite interesting. You have a tiddlearse on him at 10-1.

I did enjoy seeing tennis as the 2nd most profitable sport last month.

Must admonish Rubbish for today's gallery - not a sign of a pained Andy Murray anywhere!