Tips for Tikay

[tikay]

Evening Mr T.

Tonight St Helens host Leeds in the superleague. St Helens have 7 players out and Leeds have been made favourites. The points expectation is very low and the drop goal is a big player tonight. We know Leeds will attempt it even when they are 3 scores ahead.

Suggest £15 a drop goal @ 3-1 with bet victor.

CONFIRMATION ONLY

How did we not win this?



28/03/2014 GBP 15.00 Single: YES @ 3/1


Betid 37936059500 Time: 19:56 Bet Type: Single Stake: £ 15.00


St. Helens v Leeds Super League Matches
Drop Goal In Match - 80 Mins

Yes

3/1

BET PLACED

[tikay]

Ok seems a fair bit of warmth (as Tikay would say) for my Villa suggestion.

Suggest £25 on Villa@15-2 with bmu.

CONFIRMATION ONLY

Warmth indeed Mr K, & we are on, thank you.

£25 @ 15/2, BMU, Villa to beat Man U



28/03/2014 GBP 25.00 Single: ASTON VILLA @ 15/2




Betid 37935170700 Time: 19:22 Bet Type: Single Stake: £ 25.00


Manchester United v Aston Villa ENG Premier League
Match Betting - 90 Mins

Aston Villa

15/2


BET PLACED

[Doobs]

Channel 4 races for WH offer tomorrow

2.05 Doncaster
2.20 Kempton
2.40 Doncaster
2.55 Kempton
3.15 Doncaster
3.30 Kempton
3.50 Doncaster

also applies to all Meydan races tomorrow. 15 races total.

Anyone know what time WH will put up odds for Meydan please ? Just showing SP at the moment.

All priced up bar opener.
3.03 Shea Shea 6/4, 3.41 Sterling City 11/4, 4.39 The Fugue 7/2, 5.17 Magician 3/1 all look decent to me.

How about

1.45 Cavalryman 5/2 Betfair 3.65
2.25 Long John 2/1 Betfair 3.1

All KP's and Sonour's horses are fine, and so is Trumpet Major 7/4 2.20 Kempton.

So that is only the 8 horses for Tikay to get on using his mobile.

FWIW For those that are up now, there is a Hong Kong horse in the Dubai World Cup called Military Attack.   It is near 5/1 on Betfair, which may be the result of a few nutters from Hong Kong going gambling crazy, but the form looks solid.   Hong Kong horses tend to be pretty tough and ready to go. 

Anyway Betdead are 6/1 and paying 4 places for those that can.

Remains available (best Priced) with BetFred & Totesport only, 6/1, qtr odds, THREE places.

Not placed, await clarification. This IS best Price, but it is not 4 places. 

Just give it a miss, feels a bit marginal

[Marky147]

http://www.oddschecker.com/boxing/jon-lewis-dickinson-v-neil-dawson/method-of-victory

JLD 5/2 with David William's mob

[tikay]

BET SUGGESTION

£10 each way Born To Surprise 33/1 various firms

http://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing-betting/2014-03-29-doncaster/15:15/winner

I had a brief look at the Lincoln about six weeks ago and noted this horse was entered. The horse rang a bell with me and upon some digging I remembered the horse had an excellent course record at Doncaster and seemed to have a quiet season last year with Michael Bell.

It transpired the owners bought the horse in the HIT sales in Novemeber and moved the horse to Lee Carter. Fair to say Lee Carter was at best a journeyman jockey for various Epsom trainers including Terry Mills. He made a low-key start to training last year and is still flying under the radar this year. He has,however, already proved he can train a bit.

Jan 2014 stats 2 winners from 11 runners
Feb 2014 stats 6 winners from 22 runners
March 2014 stats 3 winners from 13 runners

All three months have shown a level stakes profit and he has resurrected a few older formerly decent animals to win claimers and sellers for him. In this weeks Weekender he states his aim is to get winners in whatever form he can to try and establish his name to a wider audience, he goes onto state that Born To Surprise was bought for the sole purpose of running in the Spring Mile (if as transpired he could not get into the Lincoln).

"
The one I'm looking forward to is Born To Surprise bought for the race and were excited by him, doesn't want it to firm needed the kempton run, and was bought specifically for this race.
"

So the trainer instructed the owners to buy the horse and aim it for the race i am sure most of this field have done the same. The Kempton run was interesting looked very much a prep for something, the horse was very very keen restrained in rear and made some late progress under a very tender ride. This all fits into the trainers quotes and that was actually a good handicap.

Doncaster record

Two wins from three track starts (including a maiden win) The other win being in a big field handicap and the defeat being a creditable 6th when racing against a bias in another big handicap.

He only had five runs last season three of which were at Ascot (a track he has never ran well at) they can be excused as it is a specialist track these days. The Haydock run was fine (4th after racing up with the pace unusually). That was only in August last year and the horse is now 5lbs lower, safe to say fairly handicapped rather than thrown in.

I like the trainer change Michael Bell had a poor season last year (rumours of personal issues) and a lot of his horses simply did not run to form. There is not evidence from last seasons form the horse has gone at the game.

Of course it is a fiercely competitive handicap and the draw in stall 1 could be a case of no chance even if he is fit and ready for this. The clear fav Gworn is drawn on our side though so that should be a positive.

At 33/1 I am happy to take a change the new trainer has the horse 100% back to its best (or close to it) with the course form, fair handicap mark and trainer in good form and seeming to have half an idea there will be worse 33/1 chances in the race.

Thanks John, thats a really well presented thingie.

CONFIRMATION ONLY

£10 EW @ 33/1 (qtr odds, 1,2,3,4) , Born to Surprise, 3.15 Doncaster


3/28/2014 3:21:13 PM

313/
339

W:10.00 S:10.00

Single

Doncaster 15:15/Outright Betting

Born To Surprise



33/1

Open

O

£20.00


BET PLACED

[tikay]

http://www.oddschecker.com/boxing/jon-lewis-dickinson-v-neil-dawson/method-of-victory

JLD 5/2 with David William's mob

Ooh, well spotted Marky. It was not there 20 minutes ago, or not that I could see.

Bazza wanted £60 @ 9/4, so I'm very happy with £60 @ 5/2.

Due to misclickage, I placed 2 seperate bets, 1 @ £40, 1 @ £20.

The bet belongs to Bazzaboy, with Marky getting the Savas-style assist.

JLD on points, £60 @ 5/2

Jon Lewis Dickinson - Points (Full Distance)
Jon Lewis Dickinson v Neil Dawson

Singles - Round betting

1 line @ £40.00 per line
.
Total Stake £40.00

Potential Return £140.00

Receipt No: O/142640973/0000573


Jon Lewis Dickinson - Points (Full Distance)
Jon Lewis Dickinson v Neil Dawson

Singles - Round betting

1 line @ £20.00 per line
.
Total Stake £20.00

Potential Return £70.00

Receipt No: O/142640973/0000574


2 BETS PLACED

[Doobs]

Evening Mr T.

Tonight St Helens host Leeds in the superleague. St Helens have 7 players out and Leeds have been made favourites. The points expectation is very low and the drop goal is a big player tonight. We know Leeds will attempt it even when they are 3 scores ahead.

Suggest £15 a drop goal @ 3-1 with bet victor.

CONFIRMATION ONLY

How did we not win this?



28/03/2014 GBP 15.00 Single: YES @ 3/1


Betid 37936059500 Time: 19:56 Bet Type: Single Stake: £ 15.00


St. Helens v Leeds Super League Matches
Drop Goal In Match - 80 Mins

Yes

3/1

BET PLACED

I don't like these drop goal bets.  It feels the sort of thing you can number crunch.  The logic seems to be Sinfield is good at drop goals, so we back them.  But he scores less than 1 in 10 games, and we only get 3/1.  Feels like the bookies have the stats, take a big edge and we carry on backing.

[Chompy]

Don't forget, tomorrow at Wemberley...



Also, Walsall rebuffery?

[horseplayer]

A superb performance overnight by former thread fav Gordon Lord Byron in Aus.

One of the best horses in training just another million aus dollars to the career earnings, what a late run.




If like me you missed it running please do not look at the TAB returns!

[tikay]

Don't forget, tomorrow at Wemberley...



Also, Walsall rebuffery?

What bet was that, remind me, please? Been a bit waylaid this week, missed tons of bets from good punters as well as your stuff.

[tikay]

In we go again please...

£20 Walsall to finish top six, 16-1 BMU

Poshies are still making the market and are still all over the shop. We're off to Wembley this weekend, so the gap is bound to be closed before we lose at home to Colchester next midweek and Wolves the weekend after.

Walsall have the easiest fixtures left: Shrews (H), Port Vale (A), Bristol City (H), Carlisle (A), Gills (H), Stevenage (A), Colchester (H).

This is a market that has to be hammered and, as has been confirmed here, Sheff Utd can't possibly finish sixth. Ergo, it's gogogo MK and Walsall!

Missed this, sorry, best price now 12/1.

Any good?

[Chompy]

Choral are 14/1, that price fine.

Need to get on today, as Poshies are not on league duty, while MK Frauds play Wolves, and Swindon go up against tired no-channers Sheff Utd.

[tikay]

Choral are 14/1, that price fine.

Need to get on today, as Poshies are not on league duty, while MK Frauds play Wolves, and Swindon go up against tired no-channers Sheff Utd.

Lol. Bet you'd just LOVE IT if Sheff U win today.

I look forward to Tighty's repeated MKDons Bet Of The Century reference tomorrow, too. Scathing. Scathing.

[tikay]

Choral are 14/1, that price fine.

Need to get on today, as Poshies are not on league duty, while MK Frauds play Wolves, and Swindon go up against tired no-channers Sheff Utd.

FML having to use that Coral website. Log in, log out again as the bets don't "take", log back in, page flicks on & off. What a crock of shite, how on earth do they grow their business?

We have £20 @ 14/1, Eso Kral's Walsall to finish Top 6.

Please give the bet a title, so Tighty can mock in his Reports. Bet of the decade?


Walsall14/1Top 6 Finish - 03/05/2014


Stake £20.00

Estimated Return:£300.00

Total Stake: £20.00

Potential Return: £300.00


BET PLACED

[Tal]

Don't use the website. Get someone running round the shops for you.