Tips for Tikay

[simonnatur]

Bet suggestion:

Double Seven 25/1 e/w in Grand National with BV NRNB, reasoning: probs a decent standalone bet, generous 6 places paid, may well start shorter on day if as PP betting suggests it is the choice of McCoy. If this was the case we might choose to lay the win part and keep the advantageous place bet? Currently 7-1 to place top 4 Betfair, we get better than 6-1 top 6 on place part.

http://www.oddschecker.com/tipping-centre/horse-racing-betting-tips/archive/march-2014 - there is a short write up and recommend on this page from 24th March



 

[tikay]

It would seem that nobody wants to make the play-offs in the Championship this season & I think I might have found a bet.

Forest struggling with injuries, Brighton just not playing well enough & Ipswich are prone to a bad result. Bournemouth are shooting up the table and with three wins on the spin are only 5 points of the play-offs, only one point behind Brighton who are 10/3 for a play-off spot! I think a small interest of £10 on Bournemouth to make the play-offs at 16/1 isn't the worst bet in the world.

This is at beteverydayoftheyear and is probably a bit stale.  Others betting top 6 are 12/1 best and someone is asking for 13/1 on Betfair.

Yes, 12/1 Best, from what I can see.



http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/championship/top-6-finish

Go to bet3sixfive, found it on mobile, football, to make play offs, championship.

Ahh, well done, ditto Arron.

No Fred bet though, maxed @ £1.88.

[Doobs]

Bet suggestion:

Double Seven 25/1 e/w in Grand National with BV NRNB, reasoning: probs a decent standalone bet, generous 6 places paid, may well start shorter on day if as PP betting suggests it is the choice of McCoy. If this was the case we might choose to lay the win part and keep the advantageous place bet? Currently 7-1 to place top 4 Betfair, we get better than 6-1 top 6 on place part.

http://www.oddschecker.com/tipping-centre/horse-racing-betting-tips/archive/march-2014 - there is a short write up and recommend on this page from 24th March



 

Isn't this a bit swings and roundabouts?  It is 30/32 on Betfair the win and 8.2/8.6 the place.  Because we get 6 places we effectively beat Betfair, but we lose 20% on the win part.  So I don't think the 6 places can be enough of a reason to bet.

[doubleup]

Bet suggestion:

Double Seven 25/1 e/w in Grand National with BV NRNB, reasoning: probs a decent standalone bet, generous 6 places paid, may well start shorter on day if as PP betting suggests it is the choice of McCoy. If this was the case we might choose to lay the win part and keep the advantageous place bet? Currently 7-1 to place top 4 Betfair, we get better than 6-1 top 6 on place part.

http://www.oddschecker.com/tipping-centre/horse-racing-betting-tips/archive/march-2014 - there is a short write up and recommend on this page from 24th March



 

Isn't this a bit swings and roundabouts?  It is 30/32 on Betfair the win and 8.2/8.6 the place.  Because we get 6 places we effectively beat Betfair, but we lose 20% on the win part.  So I don't think the 6 places can be enough of a reason to bet.

If the Betfair market is antepost there will be a slight premium so if we assume actual win odds are 30 and the odds for each place are the same:

The return for one unit each way

win =1/30 x 26 = .87

place = 1/30 x 7.25 x 6 = 1.45

So would seem to be a reasonable bet on the assumption that the chance of being 6th is the same as winning.

[simonnatur]

Dbl 7 -  Understand that backing to lay the win part may not be worth the hassle for Fred, and weather forecast may also be unfavourable to bet. Though seems every chance of laying closer to the off at 25-1 or less if it remains 10th fav in betting and especially if McCoy was aboard.

[Karabiner]

If Fred fancies a proper banzai for the ladies' golf this week I would suggest a cheeky Lady Godiva EW on Eun Hee-Ji @125/1.

[Doobs]

Bet suggestion:

Double Seven 25/1 e/w in Grand National with BV NRNB, reasoning: probs a decent standalone bet, generous 6 places paid, may well start shorter on day if as PP betting suggests it is the choice of McCoy. If this was the case we might choose to lay the win part and keep the advantageous place bet? Currently 7-1 to place top 4 Betfair, we get better than 6-1 top 6 on place part.

http://www.oddschecker.com/tipping-centre/horse-racing-betting-tips/archive/march-2014 - there is a short write up and recommend on this page from 24th March



 

Isn't this a bit swings and roundabouts?  It is 30/32 on Betfair the win and 8.2/8.6 the place.  Because we get 6 places we effectively beat Betfair, but we lose 20% on the win part.  So I don't think the 6 places can be enough of a reason to bet.

If the Betfair market is antepost there will be a slight premium so if we assume actual win odds are 30 and the odds for each place are the same:

The return for one unit each way

win =1/30 x 26 = .87

place = 1/30 x 7.25 x 6 = 1.45

So would seem to be a reasonable bet on the assumption that the chance of being 6th is the same as winning.

 On phone, so was all in my head.

Why estimate the place odds that way when we have a place market?  We should be using mid price too?

Maths is 26/31=  0.83,  place 1/8.4 x7.25 x6/4.  Can't do that easily whilst typing, but think that gives us a loss of 17% on the win and a gain of 29% on the place.  Even then that place but is probably slightly high, as chance of 6th should be a tiny bit less than chance of 4th, which is less than chance of 1st.

So overall the gain is about 5% or 6%.  Maybe a bit less than that as there is usually a bias to the backing side on the exchange.  So a margin is there, but small, which is what I was saying.  I do a few golf bets on the 6 places etc and this would be too thin for me to place a golf bet just on the maths. 

 Of course if McCoy gets on board we should be quids in, but I assume the chance he gets on is in the price. 

I am making no view on the horse here, just saying the maths isn't really that strong here.

[doubleup]

The Betfair market is non-runner lose bet, so there will be a premium because of this.

[gherkin]

Anyone know the Finch situation?  Has he already won top Aussie bet or do we need him to bat through?

[TightEnd]

Anyone know the Finch situation?  Has he already won top Aussie bet or do we need him to bat through?

We have just won that bet

http://stats.espncricinfo.com/world-t20/engine/records/batting/most_runs_career.html?id=8083;team=2;type=tournament

I didn't want to post earlier for bokking it

Finch scored 71 off 43 balls today

At that point Maxwell came in with 19 needed. Finch was 16 runs ahead of him

Maxwell has just been bowled so £20 at 11/4 collects

--


Now for the big one, Pakistan v West indies

winner through, loser home

we have Pakistan 6/1 for the tournament

Interests in Simmons, Badree and Santokie

Badree is currently leading WI bowler with 7, 3 ahead of Santokie and we have £20 at 9/2

If this is their last game, we need to watch the WI bowling stats

[aaron1867]

Do you think that it is sometimes mathematically sound to be on the National away from just punting on it just for the fun of the big race?

[Marky147]

Do you think that it is sometimes mathematically sound to be on the National away from just punting on it just for the fun of the big race?

Segal's thoughts on it

[redarmi]

It seems to me that anything except a pricewise column from Tom Segal basically consists of him talking around horses without ever offering a firm opinion.  Basically in that video he said (correctly) everyone should be betting now at the 5 day dec stage because the firms will start to shorten horses soon but when pushed for an opinion he hadn't looked properly and thought the race was a lottery yet he is 1.01 to have at least two bets in the race on Saturdays pricewise. 

[Chompy]

I've just had some on the Cherries @ 16/1. You can take some of mine if required?

Had to have a few quid just for interest, even though they're bound to be tired after a long season.

[sonour]

Bet suggestion:

Double Seven 25/1 e/w in Grand National with BV NRNB, reasoning: probs a decent standalone bet, generous 6 places paid, may well start shorter on day if as PP betting suggests it is the choice of McCoy. If this was the case we might choose to lay the win part and keep the advantageous place bet? Currently 7-1 to place top 4 Betfair, we get better than 6-1 top 6 on place part.

http://www.oddschecker.com/tipping-centre/horse-racing-betting-tips/archive/march-2014 - there is a short write up and recommend on this page from 24th March



 

Isn't this a bit swings and roundabouts?  It is 30/32 on Betfair the win and 8.2/8.6 the place.  Because we get 6 places we effectively beat Betfair, but we lose 20% on the win part.  So I don't think the 6 places can be enough of a reason to bet.

If the Betfair market is antepost there will be a slight premium so if we assume actual win odds are 30 and the odds for each place are the same:

The return for one unit each way

win =1/30 x 26 = .87

place = 1/30 x 7.25 x 6 = 1.45

So would seem to be a reasonable bet on the assumption that the chance of being 6th is the same as winning.

 On phone, so was all in my head.

Why estimate the place odds that way when we have a place market?  We should be using mid price too?

Maths is 26/31=  0.83,  place 1/8.4 x7.25 x6/4.  Can't do that easily whilst typing, but think that gives us a loss of 17% on the win and a gain of 29% on the place.  Even then that place but is probably slightly high, as chance of 6th should be a tiny bit less than chance of 4th, which is less than chance of 1st.

So overall the gain is about 5% or 6%.  Maybe a bit less than that as there is usually a bias to the backing side on the exchange.  So a margin is there, but small, which is what I was saying.  I do a few golf bets on the 6 places etc and this would be too thin for me to place a golf bet just on the maths. 

 Of course if McCoy gets on board we should be quids in, but I assume the chance he gets on is in the price. 

I am making no view on the horse here, just saying the maths isn't really that strong here.

Hi Doobs,

Could you explain why the chance of 6th is a tiny bit less than the chance of 4th which is less than the chance of 1st please.
Not disagreeing, just trying to learn.

Thank you