Tips for Tikay

[claypole]

At what price do we think Man U become a bet tonight? 6/1 at home feels pretty big to me - obviously we all can see the information with regard to this season; however it is the sort of game where a single "big performance" is not beyond the realms of possibility?

[aaron1867]

At what price do we think Man U become a bet tonight? 6/1 at home feels pretty big to me - obviously we all can see the information with regard to this season; however it is the sort of game where a single "big performance" is not beyond the realms of possibility?

I like a bet on Man Utd personally. but 13/2 was around a couple of hours ago though

[redarmi]

Betting United seems like the only bet you could have but it is very much a "hold your nose" bet but then that is normally a sign of a good bet.

[doubleup]

Bet suggestion:

Double Seven 25/1 e/w in Grand National with BV NRNB, reasoning: probs a decent standalone bet, generous 6 places paid, may well start shorter on day if as PP betting suggests it is the choice of McCoy. If this was the case we might choose to lay the win part and keep the advantageous place bet? Currently 7-1 to place top 4 Betfair, we get better than 6-1 top 6 on place part.

http://www.oddschecker.com/tipping-centre/horse-racing-betting-tips/archive/march-2014 - there is a short write up and recommend on this page from 24th March



 

Isn't this a bit swings and roundabouts?  It is 30/32 on Betfair the win and 8.2/8.6 the place.  Because we get 6 places we effectively beat Betfair, but we lose 20% on the win part.  So I don't think the 6 places can be enough of a reason to bet.

If the Betfair market is antepost there will be a slight premium so if we assume actual win odds are 30 and the odds for each place are the same:

The return for one unit each way

win =1/30 x 26 = .87

place = 1/30 x 7.25 x 6 = 1.45

So would seem to be a reasonable bet on the assumption that the chance of being 6th is the same as winning.

 On phone, so was all in my head.

Why estimate the place odds that way when we have a place market?  We should be using mid price too?

Maths is 26/31=  0.83,  place 1/8.4 x7.25 x6/4.  Can't do that easily whilst typing, but think that gives us a loss of 17% on the win and a gain of 29% on the place.  Even then that place but is probably slightly high, as chance of 6th should be a tiny bit less than chance of 4th, which is less than chance of 1st.

So overall the gain is about 5% or 6%.  Maybe a bit less than that as there is usually a bias to the backing side on the exchange.  So a margin is there, but small, which is what I was saying.  I do a few golf bets on the 6 places etc and this would be too thin for me to place a golf bet just on the maths. 

 Of course if McCoy gets on board we should be quids in, but I assume the chance he gets on is in the price. 

I am making no view on the horse here, just saying the maths isn't really that strong here.

Hi Doobs,

Could you explain why the chance of 6th is a tiny bit less than the chance of 4th which is less than the chance of 1st please.
Not disagreeing, just trying to learn.

Thank you

Imagine a genuine 2-1 chance in a 10 runner race.  It has a 33% chance of finshing first and obviously a less than 66% chance of finishing 2nd/3rd.  In a completely random 10 runner race - every horse would have a 10% chance of finishing in any position.  Then think about the 100-1 outsider in a 10 horse race - it would be more likely to finish last than first.

So there is a skewing towards 1st place as the price gets shorter*. 

I agree with Doobs but think a) the betfair odds are slightly longer due to antepost terms and don't think the effect is very marked with the horse in question.


*With some very inconsistent horses this isn't true.

[mulhuzz]

think 13/2 on utd is about right given the amt of players Bayern rested at the weekend.

they are coming to destroy Utd to make the second leg an exhibition as they don't have the best of records against british teams at the Allianz cf Arsenal, Man City.

[Marky147]

It seems to me that anything except a pricewise column from Tom Segal basically consists of him talking around horses without ever offering a firm opinion.  Basically in that video he said (correctly) everyone should be betting now at the 5 day dec stage because the firms will start to shorten horses soon but when pushed for an opinion he hadn't looked properly and thought the race was a lottery yet he is 1.01 to have at least two bets in the race on Saturdays pricewise. 

When looking back over races from the weekend he generally isn't as vague, but you didn't learn a lot other than he doesn't like the race anymore

[claypole]

It's interesting - general consensus from Facebook (not punters) and a couple if the boys I've spoken to is they make them a consideration at 10/1...which makes me think we should be looking at ways to get with Bayern ha ha.

Think Stu is right - game to watch and try and enjoy just can't help but think there's some vale in there somewhere

[TightEnd]

I think there is an angle, a tactical one

Evra is suspended and Rafael injured (off at half time v Villa) which gives United Buttner at left back but he is struggling with a hamstring. Looks like Phil Jones at right back with Smalling coming back from an injury, and the now statuesque Vidic in between.

Munich play Mandzukic up top and Ribery-Gotze and Robben as the 3 in a 4-2-3-1, with a lot of the fludity under Guardiola coming from getting these three beyond the focal striker  

Robben and Ribery wide against whoever the full backs are strikes me as where Bayern will do a lot of damage

Robben has 18 in 34 in all comps this season and 3 in 6 in europe

Ribery has 15 in 30, 3 in 6 in europe

Both are 6-1 FGS and around 2-1 anytime

not exactly earth shattering stuff, but was struggling to see the United back 5 restricting them given the selection problems

I also like Bayern -1 at 23/20 BMU

[Doobs]

Betting United seems like the only bet you could have but it is very much a "hold your nose" bet but then that is normally a sign of a good bet.

I am sure 6/1 must be a good price.  It was discussed on the board before.  Reminds me a lot of that Chelsea Barcelona match we bet on before.  Chelsea were pretty average that season (25 points off the winners) and Barcelona massively dominant at the time.  Yet Chelsea still beat them over two legs.  Man U only have to win the home leg here too.  Going to have to sit down and cheer them on tonight, which isn't something that I find easy.  

[Marky147]

Rafael out has to be a positive, surely?

[redarmi]

Bet suggestion:

Double Seven 25/1 e/w in Grand National with BV NRNB, reasoning: probs a decent standalone bet, generous 6 places paid, may well start shorter on day if as PP betting suggests it is the choice of McCoy. If this was the case we might choose to lay the win part and keep the advantageous place bet? Currently 7-1 to place top 4 Betfair, we get better than 6-1 top 6 on place part.

http://www.oddschecker.com/tipping-centre/horse-racing-betting-tips/archive/march-2014 - there is a short write up and recommend on this page from 24th March



 

Isn't this a bit swings and roundabouts?  It is 30/32 on Betfair the win and 8.2/8.6 the place.  Because we get 6 places we effectively beat Betfair, but we lose 20% on the win part.  So I don't think the 6 places can be enough of a reason to bet.

If the Betfair market is antepost there will be a slight premium so if we assume actual win odds are 30 and the odds for each place are the same:

The return for one unit each way

win =1/30 x 26 = .87

place = 1/30 x 7.25 x 6 = 1.45

So would seem to be a reasonable bet on the assumption that the chance of being 6th is the same as winning.

 On phone, so was all in my head.

Why estimate the place odds that way when we have a place market?  We should be using mid price too?

Maths is 26/31=  0.83,  place 1/8.4 x7.25 x6/4.  Can't do that easily whilst typing, but think that gives us a loss of 17% on the win and a gain of 29% on the place.  Even then that place but is probably slightly high, as chance of 6th should be a tiny bit less than chance of 4th, which is less than chance of 1st.

So overall the gain is about 5% or 6%.  Maybe a bit less than that as there is usually a bias to the backing side on the exchange.  So a margin is there, but small, which is what I was saying.  I do a few golf bets on the 6 places etc and this would be too thin for me to place a golf bet just on the maths. 

 Of course if McCoy gets on board we should be quids in, but I assume the chance he gets on is in the price. 

I am making no view on the horse here, just saying the maths isn't really that strong here.

Hi Doobs,

Could you explain why the chance of 6th is a tiny bit less than the chance of 4th which is less than the chance of 1st please.
Not disagreeing, just trying to learn.

Thank you

Imagine a genuine 2-1 chance in a 10 runner race.  It has a 33% chance of finshing first and obviously a less than 66% chance of finishing 2nd/3rd.  In a completely random 10 runner race - every horse would have a 10% chance of finishing in any position.  Then think about the 100-1 outsider in a 10 horse race - it would be more likely to finish last than first.

So there is a skewing towards 1st place as the price gets shorter*. 

I agree with Doobs but think a) the betfair odds are slightly longer due to antepost terms and don't think the effect is very marked with the horse in question.


*With some very inconsistent horses this isn't true.

Yeah predicting actual place probabilities is more of an art than a science imo.  There are place calculators online and some of the best academic minds have had a go at it yet none have really got it right because you have to consider factors other than the simple maths of the situation.  For example if you have a horse in a maiden race that finished 2nd beating the 3rd by 5 lengths in a Newmarket maiden last time out but has since got injured and hasn't raced for 456 days.  On that form is it is a 2/1 shot today.  Normal each way terms would dictate that that horse is a 2/5 shot to finish placed but the fact of the matter is that it is probably as likely to finish last as it is to finish first (that is a slight exaggeration) because it is either going to be 100% fit and able to run up to its previous form, in which case it wins, or it isn't and will finish down the field and maybe be retired.  In that scenario the chances it finished second are much smaller than a horse who ran a similar race a couple of weeks ago and can reasonably be expected to run to its form.  This applies across sports.  Last year Sebastian Vettel starting on pole was as likely to not finish a grand prix as he was to finish 3rd.  This is why having a decent fundamental understanding of the sports is important.

[Doobs]

Bet suggestion:

Double Seven 25/1 e/w in Grand National with BV NRNB, reasoning: probs a decent standalone bet, generous 6 places paid, may well start shorter on day if as PP betting suggests it is the choice of McCoy. If this was the case we might choose to lay the win part and keep the advantageous place bet? Currently 7-1 to place top 4 Betfair, we get better than 6-1 top 6 on place part.

http://www.oddschecker.com/tipping-centre/horse-racing-betting-tips/archive/march-2014 - there is a short write up and recommend on this page from 24th March



 

Isn't this a bit swings and roundabouts?  It is 30/32 on Betfair the win and 8.2/8.6 the place.  Because we get 6 places we effectively beat Betfair, but we lose 20% on the win part.  So I don't think the 6 places can be enough of a reason to bet.

If the Betfair market is antepost there will be a slight premium so if we assume actual win odds are 30 and the odds for each place are the same:

The return for one unit each way

win =1/30 x 26 = .87

place = 1/30 x 7.25 x 6 = 1.45

So would seem to be a reasonable bet on the assumption that the chance of being 6th is the same as winning.

 On phone, so was all in my head.

Why estimate the place odds that way when we have a place market?  We should be using mid price too?

Maths is 26/31=  0.83,  place 1/8.4 x7.25 x6/4.  Can't do that easily whilst typing, but think that gives us a loss of 17% on the win and a gain of 29% on the place.  Even then that place but is probably slightly high, as chance of 6th should be a tiny bit less than chance of 4th, which is less than chance of 1st.

So overall the gain is about 5% or 6%.  Maybe a bit less than that as there is usually a bias to the backing side on the exchange.  So a margin is there, but small, which is what I was saying.  I do a few golf bets on the 6 places etc and this would be too thin for me to place a golf bet just on the maths. 

 Of course if McCoy gets on board we should be quids in, but I assume the chance he gets on is in the price. 

I am making no view on the horse here, just saying the maths isn't really that strong here.

Hi Doobs,

Could you explain why the chance of 6th is a tiny bit less than the chance of 4th which is less than the chance of 1st please.
Not disagreeing, just trying to learn.

Thank you

Imagine a genuine 2-1 chance in a 10 runner race.  It has a 33% chance of finshing first and obviously a less than 66% chance of finishing 2nd/3rd.  In a completely random 10 runner race - every horse would have a 10% chance of finishing in any position.  Then think about the 100-1 outsider in a 10 horse race - it would be more likely to finish last than first.

So there is a skewing towards 1st place as the price gets shorter*. 

I agree with Doobs but think a) the betfair odds are slightly longer due to antepost terms and don't think the effect is very marked with the horse in question.


*With some very inconsistent horses this isn't true.

Yeah predicting actual place probabilities is more of an art than a science imo.  There are place calculators online and some of the best academic minds have had a go at it yet none have really got it right because you have to consider factors other than the simple maths of the situation.  For example if you have a horse in a maiden race that finished 2nd beating the 3rd by 5 lengths in a Newmarket maiden last time out but has since got injured and hasn't raced for 456 days.  On that form is it is a 2/1 shot today.  Normal each way terms would dictate that that horse is a 2/5 shot to finish placed but the fact of the matter is that it is probably as likely to finish last as it is to finish first (that is a slight exaggeration) because it is either going to be 100% fit and able to run up to its previous form, in which case it wins, or it isn't and will finish down the field and maybe be retired.  In that scenario the chances it finished second are much smaller than a horse who ran a similar race a couple of weeks ago and can reasonably be expected to run to its form.  This applies across sports.  Last year Sebastian Vettel starting on pole was as likely to not finish a grand prix as he was to finish 3rd.  This is why having a decent fundamental understanding of the sports is important.

I don't really think what I am saying needs this level of detail.  The horse is 30/1 to finish first and bigger than 30/1 to finish last.  The most likely distribution is that it is slightly bigger than 30/1 to finish 2nd and slightly bigger than that to finish 3rd.  I could go a bit crazy and build a model bringing in ground, fences and likelihood of falling at them, distance etc, but don't think it adds much.  If it was a flat race, I'd be a bit more confident on the maths of this, but it is clear some horses are going to be more likely fallers than others, so you might get horses that are real 25/1 to finish first, but also real 25/1 shots to be first faller.

I think worrying about all that definitely feels like a bit of spurious detail, and it is just useful to know the horse is a bit less likely to be 2nd than first and that is likely to be more pronounced the shorter a horse is.  And once you get beyond genuine 40/1 chances, you are likely to find horses that are more likely to be 2nd than 1st.

FWIW I think the Paddy Power price is slightly better than I implied above, as they will be NRNB and I doubt Betfair are. 

 

[doubleup]

FWIW I think the Paddy Power price is slightly better than I implied above, as they will be NRNB and I doubt Betfair are.  

  

..agree with Doobs but think a) the betfair odds are slightly longer due to antepost terms..

If the Betfair market is antepost there will be a slight premium .....

The Betfair market is non-runner lose bet, so there will be a premium because of this.

hallelujah

[Doobs]

FWIW I think the Paddy Power price is slightly better than I implied above, as they will be NRNB and I doubt Betfair are. 

 

..agree with Doobs but think a) the betfair odds are slightly longer due to antepost terms and don't think the effect is very marked with the horse in question

If the Betfair market is antepost there will be a slight premium .....

The Betfair market is non-runner lose bet, so there will be a premium because of this.

hallelujah

was agreeing with you ldo.  Sorry if it wasn't clear.

[redarmi]

Sorry I was definitely going off on a tangent as I do sometimes.  I wasn't suggesting we needed that level of detail for this bet at all, in fact we generally don't really need that level of detail, but I think it is interesting and useful from a theoretical point of view because it can help to identify the right spots to bet ew in other bets which are not immediately obvious.