Tips for Tikay

[arbboy]

Watford 1-0 which is probably the biggest decision for the fred today which is great news

[Doobs]

The two biggest factors by a country mile in pricing up a football match are as follows:

1) The relative difference in quality between the two teams in question.  You take how much better the fav is to the underdog in a goal suprem then adjust for 2) below
2) Who is playing at home or is the game on a neutral ground

The reason Man U are 11/10 today is because they are away from home.  Nothing else.  Nothing to do with tiny sample sizes of away form/Remy not playing etc etc.  If they were at home they would be a 2/5 shot for this game.  If the game was the FA cup final and being played on a neutral ground Man U would be 4/7 shot.  It's really that simple.  

Betting Man U at 11/10 today at Newcastle has actually the same EV as backing them at 4/7 at Wembley against newcastle should this be the FA cup final and the same ev again at 2/5 should the game be being played at Old Trafford.

I don't follow football but it really isn't that simple as far as I understand it.
You appear rather dogmatic and I really don't want to get into an argument but I feel that you are missing the point.

The posters above are not saying that a team is better away than at home, they appear to be saying that the correlation between their home and away form deviates from what appears to be a fixed ratio that you apply. This seems entirely reasonable to me. It might be difficult to make this judgement before the season starts but it seems entirely possible that the evidence of 32 games may be enough to modify this ratio in specific circumstances.
The averages over a season or ten seasons may tally with your figures but there will be exceptions that are not just the result of variance.
With regard to sample size there are many arguments that can be made but it strikes me that equating a Man Utd team managed by David Moyes with that managed by Alex Ferguson (even in terms of relative effectiveness at home to away) isn't very productive.
Similarly the appearance of a player such as Wayne Rooney or the relative merits of a win/draw/loss in a manager's estimation might make a difference to how a team approaches a match.

Professional odds compilers may use these rules successfully on the large scale but that does not preclude savvy punters from exploiting weaknesses in this method. After all, that is what this thread is all about (I think).

Just my thoughts, obviously.

The bolded statement assumes all other factors are the same in each circumstance  ie team news/motivation/scheduling/whether its a 2 legged game etc etc.  The only difference being where the game is played.  If that is assumed then it really is that simple.

I disagree but I don't think that we are likely to achieve any agreement so debating it any further is unlikely to produce much light.
Logically, it seems far too simplistic to say that the correlation between home and away form is fixed in all cases. Football (and sport generally) isn't that rigid.

I don't think he is saying that, he is saying it is the most imporatant factor in judging the price.  Where I see someone put up a post without even mentioning who is at home, I think they are probably missing too much.  It is much more likely people will think the 11/10 away price looks value than a 2/5 home one.  You could extend this to other markets where people think it so unlikely that 1/8 can be value they will dismiss it without a second's thought and think they are been the smart ones.

I also think he is making a very valuable point when saying that people are likely to read too much in to the table when deciding who are the best away and home teams.  Variance plays a bigger part than most people realise, if Man U are playing well, they are similarly likely to outperform home or away.

Of course once you know what the prices should be approximately you can adjust for Van Persie/Remy injuries and important European games etc.  

[arbboy]

The two biggest factors by a country mile in pricing up a football match are as follows:

1) The relative difference in quality between the two teams in question.  You take how much better the fav is to the underdog in a goal suprem then adjust for 2) below
2) Who is playing at home or is the game on a neutral ground

The reason Man U are 11/10 today is because they are away from home.  Nothing else.  Nothing to do with tiny sample sizes of away form/Remy not playing etc etc.  If they were at home they would be a 2/5 shot for this game.  If the game was the FA cup final and being played on a neutral ground Man U would be 4/7 shot.  It's really that simple.  

Betting Man U at 11/10 today at Newcastle has actually the same EV as backing them at 4/7 at Wembley against newcastle should this be the FA cup final and the same ev again at 2/5 should the game be being played at Old Trafford.

I don't follow football but it really isn't that simple as far as I understand it.
You appear rather dogmatic and I really don't want to get into an argument but I feel that you are missing the point.

The posters above are not saying that a team is better away than at home, they appear to be saying that the correlation between their home and away form deviates from what appears to be a fixed ratio that you apply. This seems entirely reasonable to me. It might be difficult to make this judgement before the season starts but it seems entirely possible that the evidence of 32 games may be enough to modify this ratio in specific circumstances.
The averages over a season or ten seasons may tally with your figures but there will be exceptions that are not just the result of variance.
With regard to sample size there are many arguments that can be made but it strikes me that equating a Man Utd team managed by David Moyes with that managed by Alex Ferguson (even in terms of relative effectiveness at home to away) isn't very productive.
Similarly the appearance of a player such as Wayne Rooney or the relative merits of a win/draw/loss in a manager's estimation might make a difference to how a team approaches a match.

Professional odds compilers may use these rules successfully on the large scale but that does not preclude savvy punters from exploiting weaknesses in this method. After all, that is what this thread is all about (I think).

Just my thoughts, obviously.

The bolded statement assumes all other factors are the same in each circumstance  ie team news/motivation/scheduling/whether its a 2 legged game etc etc.  The only difference being where the game is played.  If that is assumed then it really is that simple.

I disagree but I don't think that we are likely to achieve any agreement so debating it any further is unlikely to produce much light.
Logically, it seems far too simplistic to say that the correlation between home and away form is fixed in all cases. Football (and sport generally) isn't that rigid.

I don't think he is saying that, he is saying it is the most imporatant factor in judging the price.  Where I see someone put up a post without even mentioning who is at home, I think they are probably missing too much.  It is much more likely people will think the 11/10 away price looks value than a 2/5 home one.  You could extend this to other markets where people think it so unlikely that 1/8 can be value they will dismiss it without a second's thought and think they are been the smart ones.

I also think he is making a very valuable point when saying that people are likely to read too much in to the table when deciding who are the best away and home teams.  Variance plays a bigger part than most people realise, if Man U are playing well, they are similarly likely to outperform home or away.

Of course once you know what the prices should be approximately you can adjust for Van Persie/Remy injuries and important European games etc.  

You word things so much better than me doobs.  You pretty much crushed my views there. wp. 

I wasn't saying Man U weren't a bet at 11/10 either.  I was implying if they are a max bet at 11/10 away then you should also be having a max bet at 4/7 at wembley and 2/5 at old trafford if the locations were reversed because the EV of the bets are all the same because the only difference to the prices is home advantage.

[tikay]

Tikay's favourite female there on TV

Who that, Mark? Fell asleep on the sofa.

Gemma Merna

No no no, my dream lady has just been on, Zaraaaaaaaaa

Phwoar.

[arbboy]

Tikay's favourite female there on TV

Who that, Mark? Fell asleep on the sofa.

Gemma Merna

No no no, my dream lady has just been on, Zaraaaaaaaaa

Phwoar.

She sounds so dirty in a posh way.  Tindall must love life!

[tikay]

Tikay's favourite female there on TV

Who that, Mark? Fell asleep on the sofa.

Gemma Merna

No no no, my dream lady has just been on, Zaraaaaaaaaa

Phwoar.

She sounds so dirty in a posh way.  Tindall must love life!

You nailed it.

[arbboy]

Tikay's favourite female there on TV

Who that, Mark? Fell asleep on the sofa.

Gemma Merna

No no no, my dream lady has just been on, Zaraaaaaaaaa

Phwoar.

She sounds so dirty in a posh way.  Tindall must love life!

You nailed it.

The other 20,000 scouse birds there this week could learn a lot from Zara.

[Tal]

Aaaaaaaaaaaaaanywaaaaaaaaay.....

Best of luck everyone (who's backed the same horses as I)

[Doobs]

Words you never hear before the Grand National.

Drifting out in the market

[Kmac84]

Betfair gone down for anyone? 

[arbboy]

Betfair gone down for anyone? 

no

[Doobs]

Wp wp Neil Channing

[Rubbish2407]

A cheeky little place lay for all Neil's stinky seven comes in.



From Doobs comment I guess he picked the winner as well. Genius.

[Doobs]

A cheeky little place lay for all Neil's stinky seven comes in.



From Doobs comment I guess he picked the winner as well. Genius.

Aye and the race before two.  Got the 4th in the National too.  Sweating a couple of accounts for a couple of days now. 

[rfgqqabc]

If you think your sweating, I can't find where I placed the bet, and not only that my dad knows a clued up judge who said it as well so I meant to do a topup. Cant find either but 10 tables doesnt help.