Tips for Tikay

[tikay]

Morning Mr T.

Today I am very excited. Not because Foggy is playing the Angry Scot, it's the rugby league challenge cup, or even the last Heineken cup 1/4 final. But because I am going to bake some Jalapeno and mature cheddar granary bread.

I am a bit stuck about which bet to put up as I really like the unders in the Toulon / Leinster match but I think there is a bit more value in going for Hull KR to beat Warrington in the rugby league. This one could go horribly wrong, I still have palpitations about Hull KR 10 Wigan 84 last season. However I do think at 5/2 they are over priced and they are at home. Warrington just do not have the attacking threat they had last season after the retirements of Fatty Briers and Hodgson, and the other departures.

Suggest £20 Hull KR @ 5/2 with Ladbrokes.

Morning h,


jalapeno

What on earth is that?

I'll have to be careful not to duplicate bets that Tighty might put on, but I don't think he is around right now, lazy sod, so I've loaded up. As chance would have it, Ladbrokes maxed me at exactly £20, so that worked nicely.



Hull KR
Hull KR v Warrington Wolves

Singles - Match betting

1 line @ £20.00 per line
.
Total Stake £20.00

Potential Return £70.00

Receipt No: O/142640973/0000577


BET PLACED

[Tal]

You pronounce jalapeno with an H.

Unlike Hull.

[Tonji]

I have a possible bet in NASCAR in the Duck Commander 500 today, but can't see any books have priced it yet. Please post link if anyone spots it, thanks.

[TightEnd]

I'll have to be careful not to duplicate bets that Tighty might put on, but I don't think he is around right now

around but i will only put stuff on if you aren't shown as online

[tikay]

Incidentally, I thought that footie debate yesterday was wicked.

I swayed one way, & then the other, & I'm still not sure which side got it rightest, but it was very illuminating. As was the "sample size" gag by, I think, Ommy.

It's what Fred should be about really, being able to put forward opinions & stuff. We can never get worse by talking about things. And whilst you lot were having Greyhound fun on a Saturday night, I was at the bloody theatre, watching some bollox play thing, marv.

[tikay]

I'll have to be careful not to duplicate bets that Tighty might put on, but I don't think he is around right now

around but i will only put stuff on if you aren't shown as online

Thanks, though be aware, I'm invariably shown as "online", but often "inactive", as I'm busy doing, you know, stuff.

Anyway, as The Beatles famously sung, we can work it out, we can work it ouuuuuttttttt

[BigAdz]

FWIW, its not about me and my racing bets. I do it to try and win people here a few bob, and pay back the info I get in areas where I have no clue, or interest and now do, thanks to the good folk on here.

A couple of guys on here I speak to most days and overall, we do very nicely, thank you very much, and I could put up stuff most days.

I enjoy it when Chompy, for instance, questions a selection, as anything I put on here is as well researched as I can make it, for exactly that reason, and I enjoy when someone does. so please don't feel no one has the right to query any horse bet(that I put up). Chelts was a big disappointment for me, and I would probably have done better had someone challenged a few of those bets, as they were long held views and the ground had changed, but I learnt from it and approached Aintree in a better light as a result.

[Chompy]

Chesterfield are having a bit of a splutter in League Two and are now only 3pts clear of Burton and Fleetwood in the final automatic promotion spot. They have a far superior GD to both, which counts as an extra point.

However, Fleetwood and Burton are hitting form at the right time and Chesterfield still have to play both.

365 have Chesterfield as 9/4 to drop into the play-offs, which is a fair price by itself. However, should they drop into the play-offs they wouldn't be any bigger than 3/1 to win them and probably nearer 5/2.

Errrrgo, Sky's 16/1 about them winning the play-offs is too big for those that can. Oi oi!

[Waz1892]

Alright Waz we will have the £75 at evens.  They finish top 5 you are the winner.  If not I win.  Good luck.

Tal/others - think I probably slightly have the worst of it in terms of that there are better EV bets I could have against them.  They are 1/3 to finish in the top 6 and 2/1 to finish top 4 so it seemed fair way we could both have a friendly bet.  

If I'm right in my thinking, we win today this is sown up with 5 to go!?

[BorntoBubble]

Fwiw I have learnt so much from this thread it's unbelievable it's saved/made me £1000s probably and also the information that I have been able to pass on to friends and family has been invaluable. I've not found many bets yet as things I've learnt from this thread that I then try and put in my own betting habits I have only been doing for a few months and is ld like to see them working for me first and also asking other people what they think on here and elsewhere helps immensely!

Yesterday was an interesting grand national day I had emailed my dad earlier in the week informing him of the bet £3.65 offer and he had his picks on there and a few on betfair and was happy and normally my mum does her picks and we all go off to the bookies to place them. But this year was different mum read a horse out I loaded up oddschecker and sat there saying right you can get

25/1 with BV with 6 places
22/1 with bet £3.65 with 5 places
And oh look
Paddy power are 14/1 with 5 places what a joke etc

It meant that my mum could get the best possible return for her money she wanted to gamble whereas otherwise they would have just gone into our local baldfred and backed there favourite names at what ever price/places he would have kindly offered.

So for little moments like this in my life and the fact my bank balance is a hell of a lot healthier I thank all the people that contribute to this thread!

[ForthThistle]

Fwiw I have learnt so much from this thread it's unbelievable it's saved/made me £1000s probably and also the information that I have been able to pass on to friends and family has been invaluable. I've not found many bets yet as things I've learnt from this thread that I then try and put in my own betting habits I have only been doing for a few months and is ld like to see them working for me first and also asking other people what they think on here and elsewhere helps immensely!

Yesterday was an interesting grand national day I had emailed my dad earlier in the week informing him of the bet £3.65 offer and he had his picks on there and a few on betfair and was happy and normally my mum does her picks and we all go off to the bookies to place them. But this year was different mum read a horse out I loaded up oddschecker and sat there saying right you can get

25/1 with BV with 6 places
22/1 with bet £3.65 with 5 places
And oh look
Paddy power are 14/1 with 5 places what a joke etc

It meant that my mum could get the best possible return for her money she wanted to gamble whereas otherwise they would have just gone into our local baldfred and backed there favourite names at what ever price/places he would have kindly offered.

So for little moments like this in my life and the fact my bank balance is a hell of a lot healthier I thank all the people that contribute to this thread!

This so very much..

The Knowledge on here is astounding.

keep it up Blonde.

[Tal]

BMU has a 100% book today.

The book is on which station one of the boat race teams will choose. In other words, which side of the river will Cambridge be rowing on? Middlesex or Surrey? Even money each.



I don't understand the water conditions and the boats well enough to offer a bet-worthy insight into who will choose what. As you can see, Surrey offers that long bend, which is great, as long as you start well and don't fall a length behind (if the lead is over a length - called "clear water", you can cut inside, rather than having to stick to sides of the river). Oxford have everything on paper in their favour, including a crushing warm up defeat of the Molesey club, who themselves beat Cambridge a month ago.

My instinct would be Oxford choose Surrey and pressure Cambridge at the start, hoping to turn the screw in the middle and get a big lead. Cambridge had the Middlesex line in their third practice race against Leander and got squeezed in the bend against a really strong start, which really convinces me that's what the dark blues will do.

I suspect this is a No Bet, although happy to listen to views. We don't need much to beat the bookies, after all.

Hills go 4/1 that the commentators will apologise for the bad language uttered by the coxswains. Two young lads (18 and 20) that look like butter wouldn't melt. But it offers you a 17 minute sweat if you fancy it, because it certainly can happen.

Those who think it's just a load of meatheads who are given land economy degrees at Hughes Hall will be interested to read about Helge Greutjen:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/sport/olympics/rowing/10746708/University-Boat-Race-2014-Stephen-Hawkings-PHD-student-Helge-Gruetjen-could-be-the-freak-of-nature-Cambridge-needs-to-win.html

[TightEnd]

BMU has a 100% book today.

The book is on which station one of the boat race teams will choose. In other words, which side of the river will Cambridge be rowing on? Middlesex or Surrey? Even money each.



I don't understand the water conditions and the boats well enough to offer a bet-worthy insight into who will choose what. As you can see, Surrey offers that long bend, which is great, as long as you start well and don't fall a length behind (if the lead is over a length - called "clear water", you can cut inside, rather than having to stick to sides of the river). Oxford have everything on paper in their favour, including a crushing warm up defeat of the Molesey club, who themselves beat Cambridge a month ago.

My instinct would be Oxford choose Surrey and pressure Cambridge at the start, hoping to turn the screw in the middle and get a big lead. Cambridge had the Middlesex line in their third practice race against Leander and got squeezed in the bend against a really strong start, which really convinces me that's what the dark blues will do.

I suspect this is a No Bet, although happy to listen to views. We don't need much to beat the bookies, after all.

Hills go 4/1 that the commentators will apologise for the bad language uttered by the coxswains. Two young lads (18 and 20) that look like butter wouldn't melt. But it offers you a 17 minute sweat if you fancy it, because it certainly can happen.

Those who think it's just a load of meatheads who are given land economy degrees at Hughes Hall will be interested to read about Helge Greutjen:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/sport/olympics/rowing/10746708/University-Boat-Race-2014-Stephen-Hawkings-PHD-student-Helge-Gruetjen-could-be-the-freak-of-nature-Cambridge-needs-to-win.html

when I was rowing out of the LRC conventional wisdom was that you should choose Surrey, hold the other team over the quick short middlesex bend then use the long bend trhough hammersmith

only a very unusual tidal condition would mitigate that



i haven't researched but would be very surprised if less than 70-80% of winning tossers didn't choose surrey going back a number of years

finding an edge here is tough, either side would go surrey so "which station will cambridge have?" is a genuine coin flip


i do think a crew to win by more than 3.5 lengths is a bet - oxford at 11/10 specifically or 4/5 either for the more conservative

http://www.oddschecker.com/rowing/the-boat-race/winning-margin

5 of the last 8 boat races, 6 of the last 10, have gone over the 3.5 length margin, and this oxford crew looks demonstrably superior

[Tal]

Completely agree, Tighty. The Oxford 11/10 looks the standout to me

[TightEnd]

Completely agree, Tighty. The Oxford 11/10 looks the standout to me

its actually over 3 lengths 11/10

its a big bet if you can get on with PP