Tips for Tikay

[horseplayer]

With all the allegations looking like coming to a head after this Ipl is this a last big payday for some of those accused?

[TightEnd]

With all the allegations looking like coming to a head after this Ipl is this a last big payday for some of those accused?

i think last year was

one of the reasons i want sunrisers each way though is that they are not a franchise with politicial connections, major city etc etc, so when push comes to shove i can't trust they'll win it if there are remnants of corruption around. each way protects....

chennai, mumbai are the two who you can be confident in, from a non-cricketing viewpoint 

[TightEnd]

BET SUGGESTION

£30 WIN http://www.oddschecker.com/football/champions-league/dortmund-v-real-madrid/total-corners-home-team-over-under-5-5 OVER 5.5 AT EVENS WITH THE ONLY FIRM QUOTING THIS BET WHO LIKE YOU TO WIN.

Four BD home european games this season number of corners awarded to BD have been.

8
5
6
9

This fits the pattern of Klopp ever since he joined Dortmund. Yes they have lots of injuries but they have most of the season the style of play does not change. Throw in the fact they have no choice but to attack even more.

Downside game may well die out with an early RM goal or no early BD goal.

restricted, but BET PLACED



    Borussia Dortmund - Real Madrid
    How many corners will Team 1 be awarded?
    Pick: Over 5,5 2.00

Stake 20.25
Possible winnings 40.50 GBP

[TightEnd]

Yuh, it's a done deal according to The Sun

Can we get on with racebets?

I Can't for tikay, but there is an account with the boss

what are you after?

[horseplayer]

http://betting.betfair.com/golf/the-punter/-us-masters-betting-back-yes-and-expect-an-augusta-ace-080414-167.html

Someone else with a bit more depth and some more stats on the Hole in One bet

[exstream]

Psg have lost by 2 goals just once in 110 games.
Enough data for any kind of bet that could be value?

[arbboy]

Psg have lost by 2 goals just once in 110 games.
Enough data for any kind of bet that could be value?

Data is irrelevant.  How many times during that sample have they been nearly a 4/1 shot to win the game?  In a piss taking sort of way i have only been beaten in a 100m race once in 110 times by all the 65 year beer drinkers in my local boozer.  Today Dwayne Chambers and Arron lennon are turning up today for a pint and fancy a race. 

[horseplayer]

Psg have lost by 2 goals just once in 110 games.
Enough data for any kind of bet that could be value?

Not on the data but think Chelsea are a smidgen short even read somewhere Psg are a one man team! If Zlatan is ruled out i expect Chelsea will shorten even more at that point i think they are worth laying personally.

[gherkin]

So, I was going to post a couple of county championship tips before the next round of matches but this one can't wait...

The Warwickshire top batsman market is one I know inside out as I go to the majority of games - http://www.oddschecker.com/cricket/county-championship-div-1/county-championship-division-1/top-warwickshire-batsman

A lot depends on Trott.  It's hard to estimate his chances of playing for England this summer.  As far as I'm concerned one of 3 things will happen - he'll get lots of runs early on and get picked, he'll score very few runs and won't get picked or he'll score an average amount of runs and maybe get picked.  The only danger of him being our top batsmen is if he scores reasonable amount of runs but not enough to get into the England side.   At 3/1 it's obviously way too short.

Chopra is a really good batsmen, has top scored for us in 3 of the 4 seasons he's played and is rightly favourite again this year.  He is England A captain, so will miss 1 or 2 games with that.  There is an outside chance if he gets in the runs he will get an England call up - let's face it, there's at least 1 position up for grabs, arguably 2 if Trott doesn't get back in.  5/2 seems about right, maybe even a little value if you knew he would play every game - that's obviously not the case, so I'm leaving it.

Despite being favourites for the last couple of years, our batting is pretty weak.  The fact Westwood and Porterfield bat 2 and 3 and are 10/1 says it all really.  I wouldn't touch them at that price, year after year they fail to get anywhere near 1000 runs or average above 35.  It looks like our patience has run out and we're giving Atiq Javid a go this year in place of one of them (at 10/1 for a 2nd XI player trying to break into the team he's too much of gamble as well).  If Trott stays, then it's unlikely either of them will get much of a chance this year.  Bell is obviously only going to play 2 or 3 games, and whilst he isn't of direct interest in the market it does mean the player he replaces will have less of a chance - this will  be one of the Westwood, Porterfield, Javid, making their prices even less appealing.  Troughton found some form last year but he's missing the start of the season through injury and therefore can be discounted.

The middle order has bailed us out season after season.  Clarke, Ambrose, Woakes and Barker at 6 through 9 are better than the majority of Division 2's top order and all capable of 40+ averages.  So good in fact, I expect them to Warwickshire to drop a batsman and move them all 1 place up the order - they did it on occasion last season.  With Woakes in and out of the England team (mostly as a drinks holder), Ambrose way too short and Barker batting too low down the order, that leaves Rikki Clarke.  12/1 is a great price.  He bats as high as 5 and as low as 8, although with Woakes under instructions from England to bat at 6 for us, then I suspect it will be 7 this year.  There's more than an 8% chance he will top score but I would leave it as money is best spent elsewhere...

That leaves my stand out selection, Laurie Evans.  He was so impressive last year after finally been given a chance in the Championship team.  When he gets in he can score big.  Along with Chopra, he is the only Warwickshire batsmen (ignoring the England duo) capable of getting 1200+ runs in a season.  The reason this fairly urgent is that we are playing a warm up game at the moment.  Not only is he 97 not out at lunch but he is opening the batting, suggesting that we are maybe going to drop both Westwood and Porterfield this year and give him a go at the top, which would give him an even better chance

If I could get any money on at Coral, I'd be lumping on at 6/1, it's a massive price.  He's at most a 4/1 shot, I personally wouldn't lay him at anything above 3/1

Probable 1st XI for the Championship:

Varun Chopra (C)
Laurie Evans
Jonathan Trott
Ateeq Javid
Tim Ambrose (W)
Chris Woakes
Rikki Clarke
Keith Barker
Jeetan Patel
Chris Wright
Boyd Rankin

[TightEnd]

Corals market was down

i was left with WH and BMU at 5-1

I used to watch Laurie in Surrey's 2nd XI when he was a young man. Yet another travesty that he couldn't break through with us

Anyway, its a good spot, with specialist knowledge so I upped it a bit

lets hope Varun gets a run up top with England this summer, probably behind sam robson in the pecking order, but we can hope

BET PLACED

13 Apr 2014 - County Championship Div 1 - Top Warwickshire Batsman - Top Tournament Team Batsman
Tip It

Laurie Evans @ 5/1

Stake : £80.00
Estimated Returns : £
480.00
Transaction Reference:
O/0457483/0000924/F

[BorntoBubble]

Coral market is back

[TightEnd]

Coral market is back

marv.

juggling too many balls to hang around.

[BorntoBubble]

Coral market is back

marv.

juggling too many balls to hang around.

They only let me have £50 at 6/1 if that makes you feel any better

[TightEnd]

From about 4pm this afternoon, no bet placing service available until the morning

I am at Leicester City v Brighton and Hove Abion.

tikay is listening to Mr Channing

"8pm - 9pm, it's the Masters Golf Betting Preview.

As well as Lord Channing & Boycey, Ben Coley (SportingLife.com) & Sam Harrop (oddschecker.com) will be dispensing pearls of golf whatsit."

channel 861

Mr Channing has let it be known to the twitterati this morning that he is not a fan of Jordan Speith




tonight, as well as hoping we get one of the three wins we need to win the championship, and land the thread bet, I will be watching mr Ulloa, who we also have a bet on

with 6 games left, the Brighton top goalscorers are

Ulloa 10
lingard 6
crofts 5
barnes 5 (now at burnley)
buckley 3
lopez 3

we have a tenner at 5-1, which looks very well placed


brighton have scored 42 goals in 40 games

perhaps a goalscorer or two on the summer shopping list

[RickBFA]

Tighty,

What did you think of Wednesday on Friday night?

I saw most of second half and thought we played quite well.

This is not a recommendation, you think 16/5 Wednesday to beat Forest looks a bit of value?

Forest a bit vulnerable at home?

Wednesday played quite an attacking line up at Leicester.

Whilst Wednesday lost our 2 central defenders in the game, I think Buxton is very comfortable there.