Tips for Tikay

[arbboy]

cheers for the horse trigg.

[redarmi]

FUCKKKKKKKKKKKKKKK

The man in form....vwp sir.  two tips in two days 40/1 and 33/1.  First and second.  Easy game this huh?

[BorntoBubble]

selby hardly potted a ball so far as well and ronnie looks scary good

im going to blame tikay not me for selby winning that frame!

[kpnuts]

Lampard 8/1 FGS e/w  1/3 odds v Norwich.
8.6-8.8 on betfair and with Chels 1/5 FTW could be plenty goals obv and we get 3.67 anytime >> betfair's 3.0
expect he'd be on pens too. this is team:
Schwarzer; Ivanovic, Cahill, Terry, Cole; Lampard, Matic; Salah, Willian, Schurrle; Ba
 looks a no-brainer for those who can get on with 3sicks5.
thoughts?

[The Camel]

NFL Geeks.

Betfair Sportsbook have come up with some interesting draft markets.

Try pricing these up without looking.

How many QBs will be drafted in the first round?

Who will pick Johnny Manziel?

There are 4 or 5 others too, but these were most fascinating imo.

[sonour]

gotta put one up in the 2.05 at newmarket cus its a monster price and i think its a good 15lbs better than its mark. Miss Marjurie 25/1 general 33/1 at ladbrokes. I did a lot of speed figure work towards the backend of last year. Basicailly i would find a benchmark race over a course and distance and going, then replay the races in tandom with the benchmark to see if they went off too fast or too slow a gallop. I would then take out the anomolys. I.E the one that stuck up with them on a frenetic gallop while the other front runners wilted. Or alternately when a horse is staying on into a place when the rest of the hold up horses never got into it. I had tremendous sucess, as claypole can confirm, last year by following ones i noted down, usually next time out. Ive stopped doing this now as im 100% commited to poker and this analysis is very time consuming. And basically becuase for me, there is more money in poker. Anyhow, some of my noted horses are yet to run since i noted them down and this is one of them.   Miss marjurie had impressed me greatly when winning at lingfield over 10f and even more so when it stuck on gamely over 10f again over todays track when they went an absolute dordle. Came out very highly on my ratings and she has her ground tomorrow. Yes this race is tough and shes not guaranteed to stay on pedigree but at 33/1 im willing to take a decent plunge and luke morris seems a great booking. Not saying lump on but an e/w bet might be a good idea, has run well fresh both times shes tried.

Great work Sir. Post more please.

Welcome home Lisa, we have missed you.

How was the holiday?

Great thank you Tikay. The kids had a great time and the big kid too.

Online sports betting is illegal in Turkey so I couldn't access any bookies without the use of a VPN. I had lots of problems with the VPN and ended up blocking my Betfair account with a chunky lay on Kingman that I needed to manage.
Fortunately Betfair customer services were pretty good and it all worked out ok in the end.

[TightEnd]

NFL Geeks.

Betfair Sportsbook have come up with some interesting draft markets.

Try pricing these up without looking.

How many QBs will be drafted in the first round?

Who will pick Johnny Manziel?

There are 4 or 5 others too, but these were most fascinating imo.

QBs. I have 4. More likely to be 3 than 5

Manziel 1st five picks. Jacksonville, maybe the Raiders. Maybe a big trade up team like the Eagles

by the way 1/3 here is buying money for short odds bettors http://www.oddschecker.com/american-football/nfl-specials/nfl-draft/1st-player-drafted-manziel-v-bridgewater

i think 2/1 Boyles here is also too big http://www.oddschecker.com/american-football/nfl-specials/nfl-draft/1st-quarterback-drafted predicated on the view that houston will take clowney or trade down, and in a trade down take bortles, but manziel is gone by then
 

[BorntoBubble]

Morning Mr T.

A couple of weeks ago we woz robbed when you boked the Castleford bet after they led 24-6. Their 1st half performance against St Helens was the best I have seen this year, brutal defence and a dynamic attack. They had the match won but didn't have the nous to play the percentage game to close it out. However they are certainly worth backing at over 2-1 today against Huddersfield.

Suggest £20 Castleford @ 12/5  with betvictor ( 5-2 with  spreadex ).

I also think there could be a drop goal in this game, but we don't bet on those.

Morning hector.

Whilst Tighty is busy with the DTD thing, & next week's UKIPT, I'm on "mornings" for bet placing duty, & we are on.

The BMU 5/2 easily beats all the other Firms.

I PROMISE not to say a word if Cass go 24-6 up this time......

I've had an off-thread £10 on the Drop Goal (7/2) too, because I enjoy those little fun bets, but don't tell a soul, or I'll get in awful trouble. 

Huddersfield v CastlefordCastleford (To Win Match - 80 Mins)Odds: 12/5 Stake: 20.00Possible Return:  68.00

BET PLACED

Brough    Drop goals   

[tentwowilldo]

Thanks Richard finished work at 6am and had a quick check of the Fred that's next weeks scoop contribution sorted

[Ant040689]

What would be the expected price for 11th v 2nd in the Premier League?

11th is at home.

Both teams have near identical records on paper for the last 6 games - they both won the first 5, & lost the 6th.


http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/premier-league/crystal-palace-v-liverpool/winner

I don't think the answer is 8/1 but we've been here before. Palace look value but teams in this spot have been "illusory" value this season

Wait for the teamsheet and if Dikgacoi starts with Jedinak, there is value in 8/1, if not, we will only have one solid defensive midfielder and that would not be enough! On top of that I think it would be a plus to see Ledley start in front of Chamakh, but I think all you need is Dikgacoi in to make it a bet.

And illusionary value is a little off Tighty. I would suggest bookies have offered value for Palace in these spots and you would be up if you backed all of the long odds for Palace since Pulis joined, with Chelsea at home and Everton away coming in.

[TightEnd]

What would be the expected price for 11th v 2nd in the Premier League?

11th is at home.

Both teams have near identical records on paper for the last 6 games - they both won the first 5, & lost the 6th.


http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/premier-league/crystal-palace-v-liverpool/winner

I don't think the answer is 8/1 but we've been here before. Palace look value but teams in this spot have been "illusory" value this season

Wait for the teamsheet and if Dikgacoi starts with Jedinak, there is value in 8/1, if not, we will only have one solid defensive midfielder and that would not be enough! On top of that I think it would be a plus to see Ledley start in front of Chamakh, but I think all you need is Dikgacoi in to make it a bet.

And illusionary value is a little off Tighty. I would suggest bookies have offered value for Palace in these spots and you would be up if you backed all of the long odds for Palace since Pulis joined, with Chelsea at home and Everton away coming in.

i wasn't talking about Palace specifically merely we must have had 10+ situations this season where non top six teams have been "big" prices against heavily backed big boys (usually Liverpool) and its proved illusory.

[The Camel]

NFL Geeks.

Betfair Sportsbook have come up with some interesting draft markets.

Try pricing these up without looking.

How many QBs will be drafted in the first round?

Who will pick Johnny Manziel?

There are 4 or 5 others too, but these were most fascinating imo.

QBs. I have 4. More likely to be 3 than 5

Manziel 1st five picks. Jacksonville, maybe the Raiders. Maybe a big trade up team like the Eagles

by the way 1/3 here is buying money for short odds bettors http://www.oddschecker.com/american-football/nfl-specials/nfl-draft/1st-player-drafted-manziel-v-bridgewater

i think 2/1 Boyles here is also too big http://www.oddschecker.com/american-football/nfl-specials/nfl-draft/1st-quarterback-drafted predicated on the view that houston will take clowney or trade down, and in a trade down take bortles, but manziel is gone by then
 

Try pricing them up if you have 5 minutes.

The Manziel sweepstakes is very difficult, but decent sport.

[Ant040689]

What would be the expected price for 11th v 2nd in the Premier League?

11th is at home.

Both teams have near identical records on paper for the last 6 games - they both won the first 5, & lost the 6th.


http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/premier-league/crystal-palace-v-liverpool/winner

I don't think the answer is 8/1 but we've been here before. Palace look value but teams in this spot have been "illusory" value this season

Wait for the teamsheet and if Dikgacoi starts with Jedinak, there is value in 8/1, if not, we will only have one solid defensive midfielder and that would not be enough! On top of that I think it would be a plus to see Ledley start in front of Chamakh, but I think all you need is Dikgacoi in to make it a bet.

And illusionary value is a little off Tighty. I would suggest bookies have offered value for Palace in these spots and you would be up if you backed all of the long odds for Palace since Pulis joined, with Chelsea at home and Everton away coming in.

i wasn't talking about Palace specifically merely we must have had 10+ situations this season where non top six teams have been "big" prices against heavily backed big boys (usually Liverpool) and its proved illusory.

Got ya. If Dikgacoi starts with Jedinak I have a good feeling 8/1 proves a sweat at least, something to bear in mind. He was the missing link in the Man City domination.

[TightEnd]

NFL Geeks.

Betfair Sportsbook have come up with some interesting draft markets.

Try pricing these up without looking.

How many QBs will be drafted in the first round?

Who will pick Johnny Manziel?

There are 4 or 5 others too, but these were most fascinating imo.

QBs. I have 4. More likely to be 3 than 5

Manziel 1st five picks. Jacksonville, maybe the Raiders. Maybe a big trade up team like the Eagles

by the way 1/3 here is buying money for short odds bettors http://www.oddschecker.com/american-football/nfl-specials/nfl-draft/1st-player-drafted-manziel-v-bridgewater

i think 2/1 Boyles here is also too big http://www.oddschecker.com/american-football/nfl-specials/nfl-draft/1st-quarterback-drafted predicated on the view that houston will take clowney or trade down, and in a trade down take bortles, but manziel is gone by then
 

Try pricing them up if you have 5 minutes.

The Manziel sweepstakes is very difficult, but decent sport.

It saves me working

QB -manziel, bortles, carr. bridgewater makes 4.

4 5/2
3 3/1
5 9/2


Manziel

Jags 3/1
Raiders 5/1
Cleveland 6/1
Houston 7/1 (the price he is to get picked first)
Minnesota/Rams/ ? 10/1`
tampa bay 12-1

trade up teams

Cowboys 16/1
Eagles 16/1
Cardinals 20/1

struggle to see anyone outside those.

[redarmi]

What would be the expected price for 11th v 2nd in the Premier League?

11th is at home.

Both teams have near identical records on paper for the last 6 games - they both won the first 5, & lost the 6th.


http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/premier-league/crystal-palace-v-liverpool/winner

I don't think the answer is 8/1 but we've been here before. Palace look value but teams in this spot have been "illusory" value this season

Wait for the teamsheet and if Dikgacoi starts with Jedinak, there is value in 8/1, if not, we will only have one solid defensive midfielder and that would not be enough! On top of that I think it would be a plus to see Ledley start in front of Chamakh, but I think all you need is Dikgacoi in to make it a bet.

And illusionary value is a little off Tighty. I would suggest bookies have offered value for Palace in these spots and you would be up if you backed all of the long odds for Palace since Pulis joined, with Chelsea at home and Everton away coming in.

i wasn't talking about Palace specifically merely we must have had 10+ situations this season where non top six teams have been "big" prices against heavily backed big boys (usually Liverpool) and its proved illusory.

It is too results orientated to describe them as illusory.  The value is real but at this time of the year you need to discard teams quickly that aren't "off".  Finishing top half is a very real achievement for Palace and they are still showing up.  I think they are value too