Hamilton won in Spain today, just beating Rosberg with the pair 50 seconds clear of their nearest pursuer
However, over the course of the last few races the Red Bull has been closing the gap, from about a 1sec a lap deficit to about 0.6secs now.
The improved performance in Spain due to both Renault engine upgrades and aero improvements - they already have a typoically brilliant aero package and chassis with adrian newey's design but the renault power train is coming from a way back in matching the mercedes power - was evident in Vettel going from 15th to 4th, setting fastest lap and he would have finished about 35 seconds behind the Mercs if he had started in a "correct grid position"
the next race is in a fortnight in Monaco
Here, as we know, the engine package is far less critical as the peak power used at any point in the lap is about 60% of maximum. the aero package on the streets is of far more concern
Post race today, Jenson Button said that "in Monaco the merc will have a face full of red bull to deal with"
this has to be correct, if you look at lap timings in slow sections (such as the final section of barcelona), tight corners the red bull performs in line with the merc...it gets left behind on the straights
The markets have formed for Monaco and they are priced as if it is any other GP.
Ham 8/13 Ros 7/4 16/1 bar
When in reality this race is a one off, and the adrian newey car weill be competitive for the first time this season
Vettel or Ricciardo are not 16 and 20-1 shots here (probably still are at a conventional track)
this article published tonight says much the same
" The battle between Hamilton and Rosberg is enough on its own for the season to remain full of interest for its duration.
But it would certainly add a fascinating extra dimension if another team could improve their performance sufficiently to mix it with the Mercedes drivers.
Red Bull are closest - and while a 0.6-second gap is undoubtedly a lot, it's a good 40% less than it was in China three weeks ago. At that rate of progress, they could catch Mercedes.
Some believe that the unique circumstances of Monaco could make it happen on a one-off basis in two weeks' time.
Jenson Button said he expected Mercedes would "have their hands full of Red Bull" around the streets of the Principality, because the excellence of the world champions' chassis can shine while their engine deficit will not be as critical.
Rosberg admitted it was a possibility, and Alonso said he was heading there with the "target of making things a little more complicated for them".
http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/formula1/27366970Suggest pairing up £10 e/w Vettel 16/1 Coral 1/4 1,2 and £10 e/w Ricciardo 20/1 Ladbrokes 1/3 1,2
If one finishes top two the pair bets will be in profit
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