Tips for Tikay

[hector62]

Evening Mr T2.

In tomorrows rugby league Warrington are available at odds against v Leeds and should be backed. Leeds are looking jaded at present and home advantage should be crucial.

Suggest £20 Warrington to beat Leeds @ 11/10 with Corals.

[exstream]

Exchange
Groves point 5.4 now
Recently 5.7/5.8 i believe

[Omm]

Wow Light balance went to 1/5 to reach the final and Lettice was pushed to 7/2 with the Irish dance group 100/1. Light balance didn't even make the top three! Good swerve.

Lettice takes it after it went back to the public.

[arbboy]

Exchange
Groves point 5.4 now
Recently 5.7/5.8 i believe

ok boxing judges are these two prices exactly the same?

http://www.oddschecker.com/boxing/carl-froch-v-george-groves/round-betting

http://www.oddschecker.com/boxing/carl-froch-v-george-groves/method-of-victory

The prices would suggest so so why is there such a big diff between the groves decision and groves on points prices on the exchange? 

[McGlashan]

Exchange
Groves point 5.4 now
Recently 5.7/5.8 i believe

ok boxing judges are these two prices exactly the same?

http://www.oddschecker.com/boxing/carl-froch-v-george-groves/round-betting

http://www.oddschecker.com/boxing/carl-froch-v-george-groves/method-of-victory

The prices would suggest so so why is there such a big diff between the groves decision and groves on points prices on the exchange? 

yes

round of betting can often be a stale price by bookies. surprising to see it on betfair though.

[arbboy]

the gap on the exchange is just too big and the volumes involved too big surely?  There must be a rule issue here across markets otherwise the arbers would be mopping up.

[Tal]

Interesting angle on the recent success of the Toronto Blue Jays in baseball:

http://www.businessinsider.com/blue-jays-home-runs-rogers-centre-2014-5

(Warning: contains graphs)

[McGlashan]

I made this post in the boxing thread:

"McDonnell by points is 5/6 with 3 firms or evens with Ladbrokes. Then Laddies go 2/1 on the win by UD which looks all wrong. Surely if McDonnell doesn't get the stoppage then he'll win by UD way over 66% of the time."

Only to see that under the 'round betting' tab there was 13/8 with Bwin for a McDonnell points victory. This was a stale price from when they were the first firm to price up the non 1x2 markets.http://www.oddschecker.com/boxing/jamie-mcdonnell-v-tabtimdaeng-na-rachawat/method-of-victory

[Bazzaboy]

Exchange
Groves point 5.4 now
Recently 5.7/5.8 i believe

ok boxing judges are these two prices exactly the same?

http://www.oddschecker.com/boxing/carl-froch-v-george-groves/round-betting

http://www.oddschecker.com/boxing/carl-froch-v-george-groves/method-of-victory

The prices would suggest so so why is there such a big diff between the groves decision and groves on points prices on the exchange? 

Technical decision (e.g stopped on cuts due to head clash) is a winner in the MOV market but a loser in the round betting market.

[McGlashan]

the gap on the exchange is just too big and the volumes involved too big surely?  There must be a rule issue here across markets otherwise the arbers would be mopping up.

Apologies for the slight oversight on my part. I've always thought of them being the same thing.

Decision = points decision after going the distance.
Technical decision = going to the scorecards before the final bell due to an accidental head clash.
Except if the fight is stopped due to a head clash prior to the end of the fourth round then the fight is declared a technical draw.

It seems fairly neglible given the price differential.

 

[JoeBeevers]

I believe you can also have a technical decision if the boxer stops fighting or his corner throw the towel in.

On Oddschecker most firms are the same price either market.

[redarmi]

It is very unlikely to happen to be fair and the difference is too big.  It will probably come into play in something like 1 in 100 fights and the styles of the two fighters don't suggest it is that likely.  In real terms it is an arb imo.

[McGlashan]

I believe you can also have a technical decision if the boxer stops fighting or his corner throw the towel in.

On Oddschecker most firms are the same price either market.

That gets classed as a technical knockout (TKO) as does the referee stopping the fight like what happened in the first bout.

That's how the bookies pay out and I cannot find anything in Betfair's boxing t&c's that suggests otherwise. It still looks too good to be true though.

[Bazzaboy]

I made this post in the boxing thread:

"McDonnell by points is 5/6 with 3 firms or evens with Ladbrokes. Then Laddies go 2/1 on the win by UD which looks all wrong. Surely if McDonnell doesn't get the stoppage then he'll win by UD way over 66% of the time."

Only to see that under the 'round betting' tab there was 13/8 with Bwin for a McDonnell points victory. This was a stale price from when they were the first firm to price up the non 1x2 markets.http://www.oddschecker.com/boxing/jamie-mcdonnell-v-tabtimdaeng-na-rachawat/method-of-victory

Lads Final Judgement prices are a regular source of amusement. Even funnier if I could get on.

13/8 points obv better though or take the 13/8 KO as well and get shade better than 3/10 on a 1/5 shot (I think 1/5 is value)

[sonour]

It is very unlikely to happen to be fair and the difference is too big.  It will probably come into play in something like 1 in 100 fights and the styles of the two fighters don't suggest it is that likely.  In real terms it is an arb imo.

Hi Redarmi,

So if we back Groves on points and lay Groves by decision or technical decision then the only risk is the technical decision before the end of the fight which is something like throwing in the towel which you estimate to be in excess of 100/1 ?

Thank you