Tips for Tikay

[BigAdz]

General tennis point - I don't see how we can possibly be getting value when we are punting marquee matches every day on a Grand Slam 3rd/4th round.

This is the tennis equivilant of betting on the Premier League.

Not wanting to sound like an idiot, but what are we proposing to know that the bookies don't in these headline matches?

I'm not underestimating Murray's ability to thow in a clay court shocker, but 11/8 on someone like Verdasco looks very skinny to me.  He lost to Golubev in Rome and nearly lost to Cuevas in this tournament!

Murray leads head to head 9-1 as well (admittedly not many meetings in the last 3 years). 

I understand your point Dung, but I would rather be following someone that knows his onions(beating the book, or otherwise) rather than someone who posts value bets that never win(I include myself in that currently!).

Hector knows his onions and is currently putting money in my pocket. Good enough for me!

[Omm]

General tennis point - I don't see how we can possibly be getting value when we are punting marquee matches every day on a Grand Slam 3rd/4th round.

This is the tennis equivilant of betting on the Premier League.

Not wanting to sound like an idiot, but what are we proposing to know that the bookies don't in these headline matches?

I'm not underestimating Murray's ability to thow in a clay court shocker, but 11/8 on someone like Verdasco looks very skinny to me.  He lost to Golubev in Rome and nearly lost to Cuevas in this tournament!

Murray leads head to head 9-1 as well (admittedly not many meetings in the last 3 years). 

I understand your point Dung, but I would rather be following someone that knows his onions(beating the book, or otherwise) rather than someone who posts value bets that never win(I include myself in that currently!).

Hector knows his onions and is currently putting money in my pocket. Good enough for me!

Fully understand what Dung is saying here as I asked myself the same question the other day (didn't feel comfortable posting on thread because of Hector's success)  However I then thought about it some more and i wouldn't want Hector to not post these because they are not considered value (maybe they should be in a tennis thread if that's the case) as he probably knows more about Men's tennis then anyone on here. So for me that's a nice balance between knowledge and value. Keep posting them Hector whether that's here or on a tennis thread, as long as they are on blonde it's not a problem.

[BigAdz]

Hmmm, wouldn't want a tennis thread. As it is we hardly have any racing or golf bets because people post on them, don't want this just to be Footy/cricket and minority sports.

[DungBeetle]

I'm not having a go at Hector's knowledge, and I indeed know he tipped up Gulbis yesterday.

I just don't see how you can beat  the bookies on the Grand Slam later rounds over an extended sample.  Aren't the backwater events are the place you can catch them out where they try and price every match?

[Skippy]

General tennis point - I don't see how we can possibly be getting value when we are punting marquee matches every day on a Grand Slam 3rd/4th round.

This is the tennis equivilant of betting on the Premier League.

Not wanting to sound like an idiot, but what are we proposing to know that the bookies don't in these headline matches?

I'm not underestimating Murray's ability to thow in a clay court shocker, but 11/8 on someone like Verdasco looks very skinny to me.  He lost to Golubev in Rome and nearly lost to Cuevas in this tournament!

Murray leads head to head 9-1 as well (admittedly not many meetings in the last 3 years). 

I understand your point Dung, but I would rather be following someone that knows his onions(beating the book, or otherwise) rather than someone who posts value bets that never win(I include myself in that currently!).

Hector knows his onions and is currently putting money in my pocket. Good enough for me!

Fully understand what Dung is saying here as I asked myself the same question the other day (didn't feel comfortable posting on thread because of Hector's success)  However I then thought about it some more and i wouldn't want Hector to not post these because they are not considered value (maybe they should be in a tennis thread if that's the case) as he probably knows more about Men's tennis then anyone on here. So for me that's a nice balance between knowledge and value. Keep posting them Hector whether that's here or on a tennis thread, as long as they are on blonde it's not a problem.

Oh for goodness sake. Hector must have something like a 90% strike rate.

People seem to get confused about "value". A value bet is a bet that wins more often than it's odds suggest. If your "value bets" never win, by definition they can't have been value. If you could know 100% that Skippy's Dream is going to win the 3:30 at Newmarket then it's value at any price, even 1/100.

You only have to look at Hector's record to know that he's super shrewd and is beating the tennis markets. Remember Tighty and Tikay have access to the secret squirrel tab of the spreadsheet that tells them what everyone's profit/loss is. There is a reason that Hector's bets get put on in 5 seconds flat, whereas other peoples tips get umm'd and ahhh'd and I don't think so'd. And when he wins (which is a lot) you get all the shrewd folk coming on and saying "Thank's Hector!"

As for what does he know that the bookie's don't know, Neil Channing suggests a reason for this somewhere on this thread (sadly it's a million pages long so it'll be hard to find). Murray is a lot more famous than Verdasco, especially in the UK and we are betting with UK bookies. It's fair to assume most of the action is going to be betting for Murray, out of proportion to his true winning chances. The bookies might reduce Murray's odds, to try and cut their liabilities, even though it gives Verdasco betters value. Or they might just be biased towards Murray too because he is more famous.  

[Ironside]

Hectors bets are value as he seems to know better than the bookies and when a match odds look wrong he will tell us.

A value bet is when the bookies odds are wrong simple as that IMHO if it's  1/10 1/1 10/1 or 100/1 if books makers odds are wrong we should take the value

Same gies for cricket golf football

[arbboy]

no such thing as bad value winners.  The old school sayings are the best.

[DungBeetle]

"Murray is a lot more famous than Verdasco, especially in the UK and we are betting with UK bookies. It's fair to assume most of the action is going to be betting for Murray, out of proportion to his true winning chances. The bookies might reduce Murray's odds, to try and cut their liabilities, even though it gives Verdasco betters value. Or they might just be biased towards Murray too because he is more famous.  "

I'm sorry - but the idea that bookies don't know who Verdasco is, is simply laughable. 

[JoeBeevers]

Another thing to consider is that bookies put up so many markets day after day after day. We choose when we want to bet. It's tough for them to never make mistakes. Even in high profile tennis matches such as the French Open you see some big price movements. That is usually because the public (and / or the pros) disagrees with the oddsmakers line and the price corrects.

The true test is a +ROI over a large sample. Hector keep posting please ;-)

[Omm]

General tennis point - I don't see how we can possibly be getting value when we are punting marquee matches every day on a Grand Slam 3rd/4th round.

This is the tennis equivilant of betting on the Premier League.

Not wanting to sound like an idiot, but what are we proposing to know that the bookies don't in these headline matches?

I'm not underestimating Murray's ability to thow in a clay court shocker, but 11/8 on someone like Verdasco looks very skinny to me.  He lost to Golubev in Rome and nearly lost to Cuevas in this tournament!

Murray leads head to head 9-1 as well (admittedly not many meetings in the last 3 years). 

I understand your point Dung, but I would rather be following someone that knows his onions(beating the book, or otherwise) rather than someone who posts value bets that never win(I include myself in that currently!).

Hector knows his onions and is currently putting money in my pocket. Good enough for me!

Fully understand what Dung is saying here as I asked myself the same question the other day (didn't feel comfortable posting on thread because of Hector's success)  However I then thought about it some more and i wouldn't want Hector to not post these because they are not considered value (maybe they should be in a tennis thread if that's the case) as he probably knows more about Men's tennis then anyone on here. So for me that's a nice balance between knowledge and value. Keep posting them Hector whether that's here or on a tennis thread, as long as they are on blonde it's not a problem.

Oh for goodness sake. Hector must have something like a 90% strike rate.

People seem to get confused about "value". A value bet is a bet that wins more often than it's odds suggest. If your "value bets" never win, by definition they can't have been value. If you could know 100% that Skippy's Dream is going to win the 3:30 at Newmarket then it's value at any price, even 1/100.

You only have to look at Hector's record to know that he's super shrewd and is beating the tennis markets. Remember Tighty and Tikay have access to the secret squirrel tab of the spreadsheet that tells them what everyone's profit/loss is. There is a reason that Hector's bets get put on in 5 seconds flat, whereas other peoples tips get umm'd and ahhh'd and I don't think so'd. And when he wins (which is a lot) you get all the shrewd folk coming on and saying "Thank's Hector!"

As for what does he know that the bookie's don't know, Neil Channing suggests a reason for this somewhere on this thread (sadly it's a million pages long so it'll be hard to find). Murray is a lot more famous than Verdasco, especially in the UK and we are betting with UK bookies. It's fair to assume most of the action is going to be betting for Murray, out of proportion to his true winning chances. The bookies might reduce Murray's odds, to try and cut their liabilities, even though it gives Verdasco betters value. Or they might just be biased towards Murray too because he is more famous.  

Don't get so emotional Skippy, it's only a discussion. As Bob says "it's good to talk"

[Doobs]

"Murray is a lot more famous than Verdasco, especially in the UK and we are betting with UK bookies. It's fair to assume most of the action is going to be betting for Murray, out of proportion to his true winning chances. The bookies might reduce Murray's odds, to try and cut their liabilities, even though it gives Verdasco betters value. Or they might just be biased towards Murray too because he is more famous.  "

I'm sorry - but the idea that bookies don't know who Verdasco is, is simply laughable. 

...and Betfair is multinational.  I'd question whether there is a pro Murray bias in the UK anyway, I think he is great, but he is clearly marmite.

We need to question stuff, I am sure it used to happen more in the past.  Dung has made some points that could be better debated.  I don't know if the grand slam main matches can be beat, so can't add much, but this shouldn't be pro or anti Hector. 

I shoudl add that we missed Betfair by a margin on some of these bets (not this one). 

FWIW Tennis is a losing sport for thread, though a lot of that could be variance, if we have an edge it isn't likely to be massive and we should be trying to improve it.

[bobby1]

General tennis point - I don't see how we can possibly be getting value when we are punting marquee matches every day on a Grand Slam 3rd/4th round.

This is the tennis equivilant of betting on the Premier League.

Not wanting to sound like an idiot, but what are we proposing to know that the bookies don't in these headline matches?

I'm not underestimating Murray's ability to thow in a clay court shocker, but 11/8 on someone like Verdasco looks very skinny to me.  He lost to Golubev in Rome and nearly lost to Cuevas in this tournament!

Murray leads head to head 9-1 as well (admittedly not many meetings in the last 3 years). 

I understand your point Dung, but I would rather be following someone that knows his onions(beating the book, or otherwise) rather than someone who posts value bets that never win(I include myself in that currently!).

Hector knows his onions and is currently putting money in my pocket. Good enough for me!

Fully understand what Dung is saying here as I asked myself the same question the other day (didn't feel comfortable posting on thread because of Hector's success)  However I then thought about it some more and i wouldn't want Hector to not post these because they are not considered value (maybe they should be in a tennis thread if that's the case) as he probably knows more about Men's tennis then anyone on here. So for me that's a nice balance between knowledge and value. Keep posting them Hector whether that's here or on a tennis thread, as long as they are on blonde it's not a problem.

Oh for goodness sake. Hector must have something like a 90% strike rate.

People seem to get confused about "value". A value bet is a bet that wins more often than it's odds suggest. If your "value bets" never win, by definition they can't have been value. If you could know 100% that Skippy's Dream is going to win the 3:30 at Newmarket then it's value at any price, even 1/100.

You only have to look at Hector's record to know that he's super shrewd and is beating the tennis markets. Remember Tighty and Tikay have access to the secret squirrel tab of the spreadsheet that tells them what everyone's profit/loss is. There is a reason that Hector's bets get put on in 5 seconds flat, whereas other peoples tips get umm'd and ahhh'd and I don't think so'd. And when he wins (which is a lot) you get all the shrewd folk coming on and saying "Thank's Hector!"

As for what does he know that the bookie's don't know, Neil Channing suggests a reason for this somewhere on this thread (sadly it's a million pages long so it'll be hard to find). Murray is a lot more famous than Verdasco, especially in the UK and we are betting with UK bookies. It's fair to assume most of the action is going to be betting for Murray, out of proportion to his true winning chances. The bookies might reduce Murray's odds, to try and cut their liabilities, even though it gives Verdasco betters value. Or they might just be biased towards Murray too because he is more famous.  

Not sure this is really true tho Skippy, like Prem lge footy these matches are bet all around the world. It isn't just UK money and UKcentric pricing because there will be far more money bet elsewhere in the world on these matches than in the UK so the prices, like top UK footy matches are going to settle at prices knocked into shape by worldwide money.

[bobby1]

Did Fred back Western Hymn in The Derby?

If so how much?

[TightEnd]

Did Fred back Western Hymn in The Derby?

If so how much?

29-May   doobs   williamhill   7-Jun   horses   Derby   Western Hymn   16/1   40   £20 e/w 1/4 1,2,3   


is there room for another one each way?

orchestra perhaps?

[exstream]

What's hectors roi?