Tips for Tikay

[arbboy]

Tighty.  UKIP have drifted today off the back of the polls.  Now Conservatives are best 2/9.  If you are unhappy with the bet, you could try getting better on the illiquid Betfair market.  Maybe put up 1.17 Conservatives on Betfair?  It is illiquid but somebody will possibly be tempted.  Or you could just take the 4/1 on offer, though that seems a bit like hedging at the wrong price to me.

Hello. Not unhappy with it, just facing the unenviable task of reporting on a by-election in a daily report with a lot of "noise" around from commentators and the noise was calling it to be closing up

today's 4pm Ashcroft poll was much better news for the bet

"A poll by @LordAshcroft for #Newark by-election shows CON 42%, UKIP 27%, LAB 20%, LDEM 6%. #Conservatives on a 15% lead to #UKIP"

and a punter was reported to have £35,000 at 2/7 Conservative

these factors shortened the price

Which firm reportedly laid a £35k at 2/7?  Like any sick degen rocks up and thinks 'you know what it's a quiet Monday now Murray has hosed up let's reinvest the muzza winnings on the tories at 2/7 in a byelection'  I can't believe anyone bets politics at these prices for these amounts who is not shrewd as feck.

[redarmi]

Flip side - can you believe that anyone shrewd could get a 35k to in 10k?

[Doobs]

Flip side - can you believe that anyone shrewd could get a 35k to in 10k?

If he knew somebody who wasn't?

[arbboy]

my point is who bets on a byelection full stop who isn't a total sharp?  It's hardly the type of event to have an interest bet in days in advance?

[arbboy]

http://www.oddschecker.com/basketball/nba/nba-championship/series-correct-score

No good for fred or me getting on but for those who can punish the loltraders at boyles and sportingbet who dont realise the nba finals have switched back to a 2-2-1-1-1 format from 2-3-2.

spurs 4-1 (game 5 on their home court)
Heat 4-2 (game 6 on their home court)

are both bets at the ricks put up by the above firms esp the 7/1 spurs 4-1

[Eddycadub]

can anyone explain what this market is? I really don't understand lol

http://www.paddypower.com/bet/basketball/us-basketball/nba-playoff-series?ev_oc_grp_ids=1783558

[arbboy]

its a finals series hcap on which player will score the most points in the whole 7 game series.   There will def be a rick in there somewhere.  I am looking forward to having a better look later on when i got more time.  Off the top of my head i would say the players to oppose at 9/1 are parker (potential injury doubt for game 1 - pop won't overly use him even if he is fit), bosh (will be guarded by Duncan who is a tough defensive match up for Bosh. Bosh's key role in this series will be not scoring points but trying to control the rebound situation).  Given the injury doubts on Parker his reserve Mills receiving a huge hcap seems the bet for me.  Mills is a decent scorer anyway off the bench if Parker was injured Mills would look the hcap steal here off a very generous mark.

[tikay]

http://www.oddschecker.com/basketball/nba/nba-championship/series-correct-score

No good for fred or me getting on but for those who can punish the loltraders at boyles and sportingbet who dont realise the nba finals have switched back to a 2-2-1-1-1 format from 2-3-2.

spurs 4-1 (game 5 on their home court)
Heat 4-2 (game 6 on their home court)

are both bets at the ricks put up by the above firms esp the 7/1 spurs 4-1

Fred can stil get on (sometimes Restricted) with Sporting Bet.

[arbboy]

take the 7/1 spurs 4-1 then what whatever you can.  boyles 9/2 has gone.  Dom hoovered it all i think.

[tikay]

Tighty,

Up to you, but it seems to me we should be lumping on NZ in the Rugby.

What's the worst that can happen? We find a value bet & it loses? Not be the first time.

It's just a case of "how big?" imo.

And don't be tiddlearsing. I'm not interested in the bet if we are punting less than a tenner. This looks a £15-er at least to me.

[tikay]

take the 7/1 spurs 4-1 then what whatever you can.  boyles 9/2 has gone.  Dom hoovered it all i think.

Not sure how much we should have bet, & not sure if Tighty is around, & might have got on too, but for now, we have had £25 @ 7/1 with Sporting Bet.

Bet Type: Single
San Antonio Spurs v Miami Heat - Series Result San Antonio Spurs v Miami Heat - Series ResultSan Antonio Spurs 4-17/1

 

Possible Payout 200.00 GBP

1 bet @
25.00 GBP


Total Cost: 25.00 GBP
Total Possible Payout (inc. stake): 200.00 GBP

BET PLACED

[arbboy]

take the 7/1 spurs 4-1 then what whatever you can.  boyles 9/2 has gone.  Dom hoovered it all i think.

Not sure how much we should have bet, & not sure if Tighty is around, & might have got on too, but for now, we have had £25 @ 7/1 with Sporting Bet.

Bet Type: Single
San Antonio Spurs v Miami Heat - Series Result San Antonio Spurs v Miami Heat - Series ResultSan Antonio Spurs 4-17/1

 That

Possible Payout 200.00 GBP

1 bet @
25.00 GBP


Total Cost: 25.00 GBP
Total Possible Payout (inc. stake): 200.00 GBP

BET PLACED

That's fine. 

[TightEnd]

Tighty,

Up to you, but it seems to me we should be lumping on NZ in the Rugby.

What's the worst that can happen? We find a value bet & it loses? Not be the first time.

It's just a case of "how big?" imo.

And don't be tiddlearsing. I'm not interested in the bet if we are punting less than a tenner. This looks a £15-er at least to me.

ok on

 New Zealand v England New Zealand -19 (3-Way Handicap - 80 Mins)

Odds: 10/11

Stake: 1100.00

Possible Return:  2100.00

[TightEnd]

Tighty,

Up to you, but it seems to me we should be lumping on NZ in the Rugby.

What's the worst that can happen? We find a value bet & it loses? Not be the first time.

It's just a case of "how big?" imo.

And don't be tiddlearsing. I'm not interested in the bet if we are punting less than a tenner. This looks a £15-er at least to me.

ok on

 New Zealand v England New Zealand -19 (3-Way Handicap - 80 Mins)

Odds: 10/11

Stake: 1100.00

Possible Return:  2100.00

divide by 10. don't want to ruin your road trip.

[Omm]

Tighty,

Up to you, but it seems to me we should be lumping on NZ in the Rugby.

What's the worst that can happen? We find a value bet & it loses? Not be the first time.

It's just a case of "how big?" imo.

And don't be tiddlearsing. I'm not interested in the bet if we are punting less than a tenner. This looks a £15-er at least to me.

ok on

 New Zealand v England New Zealand -19 (3-Way Handicap - 80 Mins)

Odds: 10/11

Stake: 1100.00

Possible Return:  2100.00

haha nice one tighty, even i had to spit out my tea