Tips for Tikay

[TightEnd]

Its a bit early yet but it looks like it might be wet, with thunderstorms forecast and not much wind.  Rory could crush again like Congressional if those are the conditions.  Also like Jason Day in those conditions, though he has been injured.

So I'm waiting till the weather position is clear.

thanks

please can you, and the other golf people, keep us in touch when its time to act?

[TightEnd]

placed as suggested

Dr Noh £5 e/w 1/4 1,2,3,4,5,6 250-1 BFSB


Does anyone else have any thoughts for Pinehurst?

who it might suit, who is in form, who is value?

Brendon Todd has finished in the top 10 on his last 3 outings and is available at 125/1 (e/w top 6) which must represent a decent value each way bet.

go on then

a little banzai portfolio

confession: i had to google him. top 60 in the world now!


        Bet Type: Single
            US Open Championship - Jun 12th - 15th Outright Winner
                Brendon Todd 125/1
                Each Way: 1/4 1 - 6
        Possible Payout 791.25 GBP
    2 bets @
    5.00 GBP

    Total Cost: 10.00 GBP
    Total Possible Payout (inc. stake): 791.25 GBP

[arbboy]

bald are betting the queen's men's tennis in running and are still 40/1 Hewitt who has been done for plenty around 33/1 on bf pre his 1st round game today (which he was 1/6 to win).  He has just gagged up 2-0 in his first round match, albeit against a Spanish dirt baller.  4 time winner of this event in the distant past and loves the green stuff.  Recommened £10 win at 40/1 win only as he doesn't have the best of the draw so the place bet is probably not any value at 20/1 to reach the final given he is in the tougher half of the draw although he won't play Murray potentially until the Semi finals.

http://www.betfred.com/sport?mode=cf&oc_idfoselection=177346397.20&oc_idfomarket=11060110.20&priceup=40&pricedown=1&mred=https%3a%2f%2fbetfred.mobi%2fbetslip%2fexternal%3foc_idfoselection%3d177346397.20%26oc_idfomarket%3d11060110.20%26priceup%3d40%26pricedown%3d1&selection=177346397.20&market=11060110.20

[TightEnd]

Perhaps am stupid, but i discovered you could part-use a free bet at Betfred

free bet

Market   Selection   Price   Hcp
Aegon Championship
Tournament Outright
   Hewitt, Lleyton    40/1    
Total stake   £ 10.00
Estimated return   £ 400.00
Full stake   £ 10.00
Full estimated return   £ 400.00


£15 free bet balance remaining. Must be something long and lairy for the World cup someone wants a free stab at?

[arbboy]

perfect use of a free bet.  Wouldn't put you off having the whole £25 freebet on it if it needs using.  You will struggle to find a better bet for free bet use imo.  (backing a 28/1 shot at 40/1)

[tikay]

No idea if it has any merit, but just got this from BWin........



Make every second of every game feel like a final – starting with the zero-risk, kick-off offer when Brazil take on Croatia. Here's how it works:
 




Back Brazil and if they win, you win. If not, you'll get your money back – up to EUR 50 – in the form of a FreeBet. What are you waiting for?
 
Your bwin team

[Junior Senior]

placed as suggested

Dr Noh £5 e/w 1/4 1,2,3,4,5,6 250-1 BFSB


Does anyone else have any thoughts for Pinehurst?

who it might suit, who is in form, who is value?

Two solid form guys that have played pinehurst well before are Garcia 35/1 and Westwood 40/1. Ww i think will win a major in his lifetime and the us open represents probably his best chance each year. Long game is incred but he cannot putt well enough to go low but in us opens you dont need to go low, you just need to grind pars. Therefore, It matters less at the us open about putting, especially holing from distance.

Never back him for the masters btw, he simply cannot win.. Ever!

He ran well in 2005 here at Pinehurst, he has the experience of several us opens and is a grinder which is just what you need at a us open. 40/1 1/4 6 places had me very interested. Its a similar story for Garcia, who has been in ok form recently and is perhaps priced with some generosity at 35/1. He has scored well here previously and his long game is great. I am hearing the rough isnt as bad this year as it is for normal us opens which sometimes rules out Garcia as he does have a wayward one in his bag.

[Doobs]

Can get Westwood 49/1 and 11.5/1 5 places in the place we seem to have stopped checking. 

Weirdly there is nobody on the but side for the place.  You'd think the place side was better with him?  He hasn't got any issues has he?

[TightEnd]

No idea if it has any merit, but just got this from BWin........



Make every second of every game feel like a final – starting with the zero-risk, kick-off offer when Brazil take on Croatia. Here's how it works:
 




Back Brazil and if they win, you win. If not, you'll get your money back – up to EUR 50 – in the form of a FreeBet. What are you waiting for?
 
Your bwin team

presumably this is a no-brainer?

[TightEnd]

placed as suggested

Dr Noh £5 e/w 1/4 1,2,3,4,5,6 250-1 BFSB


Does anyone else have any thoughts for Pinehurst?

who it might suit, who is in form, who is value?

Two solid form guys that have played pinehurst well before are Garcia 35/1 and Westwood 40/1. Ww i think will win a major in his lifetime and the us open represents probably his best chance each year. Long game is incred but he cannot putt well enough to go low but in us opens you dont need to go low, you just need to grind pars. Therefore, It matters less at the us open about putting, especially holing from distance.

Never back him for the masters btw, he simply cannot win.. Ever!

He ran well in 2005 here at Pinehurst, he has the experience of several us opens and is a grinder which is just what you need at a us open. 40/1 1/4 6 places had me very interested. Its a similar story for Garcia, who has been in ok form recently and is perhaps priced with some generosity at 35/1. He has scored well here previously and his long game is great. I am hearing the rough isnt as bad this year as it is for normal us opens which sometimes rules out Garcia as he does have a wayward one in his bag.

(golf ice-cream, generalist questions...)

Westwood is accurate, long, great with irons into the green but struggles with the putter?

i think thats correct

normally the US Open has penal rough, and something around par wins?

so if the rough is not so tough this time, those who are less accurate find a course that is more forgiving so the premium on accuracy is less and the importance of making birdies (as more players will be on the green in regulation even if they miss off the tee) is higher than it would be for a traditional us open set up?

"From graduated rough to no rough at all.

Welcome to the U.S. Open at Pinehurst No. 2, where the championship’s evolution takes its most stunning turn yet under Mike Davis.

The restoration of the classic course to the natural design that Donald Ross intended may feel unnatural for a U.S. Open, but the USGA’s executive director sees all the elements important in keeping the championship true to its original mission still neatly in place.

While the idea of staging a U.S. Open without rough may seem like heresy to the old guard, Davis sees it differently.

Acknowledging the sandy waste areas that take the place of traditional rough could make scoring easier in this U.S. Open, Davis doesn’t see the setup as blasphemous. He sees the sacred challenges required to identify a true champion still in the rigorous test that will be offered."

https://sports.yahoo.com/blogs/nbc-yahoo-sports/u-s--open-course-pinehurst-looks--stunning--but-there-s-no-rough-142445004-golf.html

so this would suggest its not a westwood track? shouldn't we be looking at birdie-makers (and westwood rarely is in majors, is he?)

put me right, by all means!

[Chompy]

Who was the Dulwich Hamlet correspondent?

Lord Ant of Crystal Palace?

Whoever it was, thoughts on Erhun Oztumer please?

[BigAdz]

Cant be having Westwood shorter than Dufner.

4th in last two Opens, runner up couple of weeks ago, and the laid back type to thrive in the challenges that the Open will provide.

50s to me looks mahooosive ew

[arbboy]

No idea if it has any merit, but just got this from BWin........



Make every second of every game feel like a final – starting with the zero-risk, kick-off offer when Brazil take on Croatia. Here's how it works:
 




Back Brazil and if they win, you win. If not, you'll get your money back – up to EUR 50 – in the form of a FreeBet. What are you waiting for?
 
Your bwin team

presumably this is a no-brainer?

The only problem i can see is actually getting a £50 free bet on someone at bwin at a big enough price to not burn EV on the free bet.  How easy is it getting £50 on a 20/1 for example at bwin.  I haven't bet with them ever.

[DropTheHammer]

Ladbrokes have a match bets market pitching different attackers against each other for total goals scored in the WC. Two bets in particular caught my eye:

Luis Suarez (7/5)          Draw (16/5)          Sergio Aguero (11/10)

With Suarez missing Uruguay's first 1-3 matches, and Argentina with an easy group plus likely to go much further in the competition, I think a bet for Aguero would be profitable.

    

Lionel Messi (2/5)         Draw (9/2)            Sergio Aguero (10/3)

I think these prices exemplify how overrated Messi's goalscoring abilities are in this competition. He may play out wide, but what is a fact is his lack of scoring in previous WCs. He will probably have both Higuain and Aguero in front of him which he is likely to be feeding assists for, rather than scoring himself.

[Acidmouse]

Eamonn Dolan now odds on for next Leeds manager http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eamonn_Dolan local reporter Phil Hay saying strong favorite, might be announced tomorrow.