Stage 8: Tour de Suisse
« Sent to: TightEnd on: Today at 04:35:20 AM »
Hello Tighty,
I'm sending this tip PM, because in the past, prices have tended to disappear once I've posted them to Fred. I don't think we have to worry about that any more, given my recent run of form ... but for vanity's sake here it is. Please feel free to post this up on the thread for discussion, as my short-lived auto-bet status should probably be revoked immediately.
Cheers, Jason
I'm getting a little annoyed with myself. I'm beginning to think that the bookies know more than I do. They ought to. They've definitely become a lot wiser at this cycling game over the past year. I've lost my edge. In fact, depending on the outcome, this could be my last tip for Fred (bar one I've set aside for the Tour de France):
http://www.oddschecker.com/cycling/tour-de-suisse/tour-de-suisse-stage-8/winnerToday is the first mountain stage of the Tour de Suisse. It finishes with a climb up to Verbier, which means that (apart from a breakaway) the winner should be the rider with the best climbing legs. The bookies have the favourites going something like this:
Rui Costa 7/2 Decent chance, but waaaay too short.
Bauke Mollema 5/1 Good form, but unlikely to leave anyone in his wake. Prefer his chances tomorrow.
Mathias Frank 7/1 Could win this stage. Like.
Thibout Pinot 8/1 I'd be amazed!
Roman Kreuziger 10/1 Possibility, but bad TT belies indifferent form. Saving himself for Contador?
Warren Barguil 18/1 No.
Michael Albasini 22/1 Are you kidding me?
Phillip Deignan 22/1 Hmmm. Maybe. Maybe not. Chances. Possibility. Undecided.
Cadel Evans 33/1 Better chance than Albasini.
Tom Jelte Slagter 33/1 Really?
Peter Sagan 33/1 Seriously?
This stage will be a litmus test for where I'm at against the bookies. The fact is, I think they've gotten this one horribly wrong. It's almost as if they've gone for reputation over current ability and form. If we discount the possibility of a breakaway making it to the finish line, I make it that there are four better climbers in the field than any of the above (bearing in mind that the final 8+ km up to Verbier have a challenging average gradient of 8%). They are:
Janier Acevedo 40/1 5th Stage 3: Tour of California; 16th in yesterday's TT (and he can't TT) after a blistering climb to the first time check; Colombian; 2:07 behind Tony Martin and needs time.
Johan Esteban Rubio Chavez 50/1 1st Stage 6: Tour of California (after a breakaway); Colombian; the next Nairo Quintana; not a great TT (saving himself?)
Lawson Craddock 125/1 3rd Overall: Tour of California; 6th in yesterday's TT … and it's not his strong point; 1:42 behind the leader. Like his chances. Youngster wants to prove himself.
Christophe Riblon 80/1 Proven climber; past TdF stage winner; no Betancur this year in Tdf (Proving himself?); Outside chance.
I suggest that Fred stakes £2.50 e/w on each of the above for a total outlay of £20.
If we don't turn a profit, I think I'm done for the year. Obviously, I've backed all of them myself.Well now you gotta stay, right?
For those new to Fred, "cheapwetsuit" must hold some sort of record for Fred's biggest priced winners.
Last year he have us a 150/1 winner, & today, he gave us a 50/1 winner. THIS MAN KNOWS BICYCLEY THINGS.
We don't do dick-swinging here, it's all about a team effort, & enjoying ourselves, & hopefully pinching a shilling or two along the way, but CWS has some remarkable stats in his tipping. He has given us 16 Bets, average bet size £10, & has returned over £300 profit on those small stakes, for an ROI of over 200%. Yes yes, I understand variance & all that, but even so, this is extraordinary by any yardstick.
Wonderful stuff, thank you very much.
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