Tips for Tikay

[horseplayer]

knowing a member of Lads staff fairly well if he/she had taken that bet in full and it had copped their work life would have been hell for a few weeks.

Its not right but its those above not those in the shops who are at fault

[sonour]

What are the general thoughts on the insurebet that is offered by Padraig for a horse finishing in 2nd/3rd, I can't help but think there are spots in which we could take advantage of this when say the place terms aren't so favourable.  I am thinking mybe with horses like General Tufto around Southwell.  I haven't used this function before so just thinking out loudly.  Might also be a shout when there are 2 at the front of the market and we can't make up our mind of what one we want to be on. 

I'm sure there will be some good thoughts on this from Team Maths, and look forward to reading whether or not I'm thinking like a total mug. 

Are you talking about the money back if 2nd or 3rd offer on one race per day ?

[sonour]

I was in Ladbrokes on Friday when a guy came in and wanted £500 on Baltic Fire at 7/2 in the 7.35 at Newmarket. It was 5/1 at Betfred and 5.7 on Betfair at the time. He was offered £200 only.

What were they thinking ?

Presumably bookmakers have Betfair accounts but do they have accounts with other bookmakers ?

I feel another profit warning coming soon. Pretty unbelievable way to run a business. The Magic Sign > The Tragic Sign. Sad.

Ladbrokes servers have been down since 12.50 today. They can't pay out any bets in the shops or give you any prices.

[Kmac84]

What are the general thoughts on the insurebet that is offered by Padraig for a horse finishing in 2nd/3rd, I can't help but think there are spots in which we could take advantage of this when say the place terms aren't so favourable.  I am thinking mybe with horses like General Tufto around Southwell.  I haven't used this function before so just thinking out loudly.  Might also be a shout when there are 2 at the front of the market and we can't make up our mind of what one we want to be on. 

I'm sure there will be some good thoughts on this from Team Maths, and look forward to reading whether or not I'm thinking like a total mug. 

Are you talking about the money back if 2nd or 3rd offer on one race per day ?

They seem to offer money back on all races if you back a horse to win and it finishes 2nd or 3rd depending on how many runners there are, obviously if you take the insurance the odds are less.  

Eg in the next race @ Hexham St Gregory is 5/1 to win but if you take insurebet on it 2 places if it wins you get 4/1 ir it finishes 2nd you get money back.  If you take insurebet on 3 places you get 3/1 the win and refund if 2nd or 3rd.  

[rfgqqabc]

Lets get on Gerrard now and start the campaign? Won't take long and once you get him into sub 5/1 every man and his dog will bet him and it'll be 1/5 in no time.

[TightEnd]

Lets get on Gerrard now and start the campaign? Won't take long and once you get him into sub 5/1 every man and his dog will bet him and it'll be 1/5 in no time.

why would anyone vote for Gerrard?

ballsed up the title, led the worst world cup campaign since we last didn't qualify. hardly the SPOTY!

[sonour]

knowing a member of Lads staff fairly well if he/she had taken that bet in full and it had copped their work life would have been hell for a few weeks.

Its not right but its those above not those in the shops who are at fault

Sorry I didn't make it clear, it was referred to traders and they rejected it. These are the guys who presumably have Betfair screens in front of them.

[horseplayer]

knowing a member of Lads staff fairly well if he/she had taken that bet in full and it had copped their work life would have been hell for a few weeks.

Its not right but its those above not those in the shops who are at fault

Sorry I didn't make it clear, it was referred to traders and they rejected it. These are the guys who presumably have Betfair screens in front of them.

fair enough then

strange business behaviour but no surprise from them

[TightEnd]

I wrote to Mere Novice earlier, an afficianado of the ladies tennis game


i wrote as follows

"Hello ladies tennis man

i was looking at the wimbledon draw

serena and sharapova are in the same half

outside those two its 12-1 bar wimbledon ladies title

at 1/2 odds 1,2 you can get 6-1 plus any player to win their half

the four top seeds in the lower half are li na, radwanska, kvitova and azarenka

all four are vulnerable, li na on grass, radwanska on form, kvitova injury, azarenka played once since march

in general the ladies is quite unpredictable, plenty of upsets, doesn't go according to seedings in recent slams...

in that bottom half is there a player i can look at to go deep and upset the top seeds?

after all, bartoli last year came from nowhere....


sloane stephens? wozniacki? venus? a n other?


ty"



he replied

"Hi Tighty,

Great minds think alike (or perhaps fools seldom differ!).
The lop-sided nature of the draw was the first thing that struck me on Friday morning.

I watched Azarenka last week and I can't see her challenging.
Your other points are all relevant too.

I see that you've got Casey Dellacqua at 1000/1 which seems like a fair fun bet. If she gets past Radwanska (which isn't impossible) then her price will tumble.

Flavia Pennetta at 450 on Betfair is the one that I went with (amongst a few others).
She lost to Heather Watson last week which, on the face of it, isn't a great result but Watson did play very well.
She has the toughest part of the bottom half of the draw to start but is very capable of making it through.

Just realised that I've watched 360 women's tennis matches this year - that's a bit sad!

I'd recommend Larsson to beat Jovanovski too at 2.5.
http://www.oddschecker.com/tennis/wimbledon/womens/johanna-larsson-v-bojana-jovanovski/winner
Jovanovski is really struggling for form having lost her last 6 matches.
http://www.matchstat.com/Compare/-4117/-8375/-9134

I'm not planning on posting on TfT but I'm happy to PM any random thoughts that I have."


i have asked him to keep sending me thoughts which i will pop up, and have his permission to post on here. hopefully he will do so himself in due course, but no bother either way


in the meantime

we have, betfair

First Round Matches / Larsson v Jovanovski / Match Odds    Johanna Larsson    Back    38573546368    22-Jun-14
17:03         2.4    23.84       2.4    22-Jun-14 17:03    

   Wimbledon 2014 / Womens Tournament / Winner    Flavia Pennetta    Back    38573490743    22-Jun-14
17:01         460    2.00       460    22-Jun-14 17:01

waiting for the rest to match

i will put them down as "thread" bets

[tikay]

I wrote to Mere Novice earlier, an afficianado of the ladies tennis game


i wrote as follows

"Hello ladies tennis man

i was looking at the wimbledon draw

serena and sharapova are in the same half

outside those two its 12-1 bar wimbledon ladies title

at 1/2 odds 1,2 you can get 6-1 plus any player to win their half

the four top seeds in the lower half are li na, radwanska, kvitova and azarenka

all four are vulnerable, li na on grass, radwanska on form, kvitova injury, azarenka played once since march

in general the ladies is quite unpredictable, plenty of upsets, doesn't go according to seedings in recent slams...

in that bottom half is there a player i can look at to go deep and upset the top seeds?

after all, bartoli last year came from nowhere....


sloane stephens? wozniacki? venus? a n other?


ty"



he replied

"Hi Tighty,

Great minds think alike (or perhaps fools seldom differ!).
The lop-sided nature of the draw was the first thing that struck me on Friday morning.

I watched Azarenka last week and I can't see her challenging.
Your other points are all relevant too.

I see that you've got Casey Dellacqua at 1000/1 which seems like a fair fun bet. If she gets past Radwanska (which isn't impossible) then her price will tumble.

Flavia Pennetta at 450 on Betfair is the one that I went with (amongst a few others).
She lost to Heather Watson last week which, on the face of it, isn't a great result but Watson did play very well.
She has the toughest part of the bottom half of the draw to start but is very capable of making it through.

Just realised that I've watched 360 women's tennis matches this year - that's a bit sad!

I'd recommend Larsson to beat Jovanovski too at 2.5.
http://www.oddschecker.com/tennis/wimbledon/womens/johanna-larsson-v-bojana-jovanovski/winner
Jovanovski is really struggling for form having lost her last 6 matches.
http://www.matchstat.com/Compare/-4117/-8375/-9134

I'm not planning on posting on TfT but I'm happy to PM any random thoughts that I have."


i have asked him to keep sending me thoughts which i will pop up, and have his permission to post on here. hopefully he will do so himself in due course, but no bother either way


in the meantime

we have, betfair

First Round Matches / Larsson v Jovanovski / Match Odds    Johanna Larsson    Back    38573546368    22-Jun-14
17:03         2.4    23.84       2.4    22-Jun-14 17:03    

   Wimbledon 2014 / Womens Tournament / Winner    Flavia Pennetta    Back    38573490743    22-Jun-14
17:01         460    2.00       460    22-Jun-14 17:01

waiting for the rest to match

i will put them down as "thread" bets

Good work Tighty, & MerePerv.

[cheapwetsuit]

who on earth is going to win SPOTY?

http://www.oddschecker.com/awards/sports-personality-of-the-year/winner

going down the list

Hamilton might lose the F1WDC to Rosberg and is still favourite

Will froome beat contador to the TdeF?

Murray unlikely, imo, to win Wimbledon again

mcilroy needs to win the open to win it, same for any golfer? ryder cup though

Froch? the general voting public will have forgotten by Dec. takes an exceptional boxer to win it, if not on terrestial tv

wilkinson more likely to get a lifetime achievement thing

nothing from the world cup, no big cricket, no big rugby

commonwealth games, maybe


http://www.oddschecker.com/awards/sports-personality-of-the-year/winner 


my question is who is the value here and now?

I see Jordan Henderson has astonishingly been omitted from that list.

Moving on...

Johnson-Thompson has a decent chance of winning the Heptathlon. If she does win the gold, it'd be a big achievement and I could see a bit of TV hype about her.

Lizzy Yarnold has to be in with a top three shout, doesn't she?

Henderson bad, Paulinho good?

Lots of England fans not understanding variance last few days. 

I agree that there must be some value in this market. If Froome wins the TdF, then I suppose that he'd be the obvious choice for the win, given how Rosberg is going at the moment. But cycling is seldom so simple, and turning up won't guarantee him the yellow jersey.

Being a Ryder Cup year, I'm tempted to go for Poulter @ 80/1-100/1 e/w. As everyone here knows, he has a standout record in this event: 2008 - highest points scorer both sides (4/11.5 ... Europe lost); 2010 - 3 points in 4 matches ... Europe won; 2012 - won all 4 matches ... Europe won. Also, the UK is Ryder Cup crazy, so it's not like he won't have pulling power or name recognition amongst the voting masses.

All the same, it is unlikely that he'll win the award on the basis of his Ryder Cup showing alone (but it might get him a place). It helps then that Poulter is also doing quite well in the majors this year, with a T17 in the US Open and a T20 in the Masters. A bink (or a near thing) in one of the two remaining majors would considerably slash his odds. Of all the golfers up for the award, I'd reckon he'd be the most likely to win either the Open or the US PGA, given McIlroy's struggles to post four strong rounds back-to-back, and Westwood's inability to close out a strong position. Rose also has potential, of course, but personally I think it helps to have a personality to win SPOTY

[Chompy]

Re: Sloane to win her quarter, there's a bit of 50-1, half the odds 1, 2 around. That's 25-1 to make the final. This seems a better option than 5-1 to win her quarter now the price has gone on that?

[DungBeetle]

I missed the Wozniaki bet

"I also want a bet in the fourth quarter where second seed Li Na and former champion Petra Kvitova reside.

Li has never been beyond the last eight in SW19, while Kvitova arrives under an injury cloud (hamstring). Even if she's fine, the Czech is notorious for drifting in matches - few players play as many three-setters as she does - and I wouldn't be surprised to see someone get the better of her before the business end of proceedings.

That person could be Sloane Stephens, who has performed well here before.

Last year the young American made the quarter-finals where she was competitive in a ding-dong battle with eventual champion Marion Bartoli.

In 2012 it took grass specialist Lisicki to halt her run in the last 32.

Stephens has made a habit of stepping up at the big tournaments - her last six Grand Slams have brought results as follows: R4-R4-R4-QF-R4-SF. That's impressive from a 21-year-old and I'll take her to win the quarter at 8/1."

from a betting column, because i have been searching the bottom half of the draw for opportunities because the make up of the market is so skewed

http://www.oddschecker.com/tennis/wimbledon/womens/womens-wimbledon/player-to-win-4th-quarter

is wozniacki at 9-1 any value to beat the top three here, and win the quarter?

Well one thing in favour of this is that Wozniacki always seems to beat Stephens, and beat her last week on grass.  Matches between Woznaicki and Li tend to be very close affairs.   On grass I wouldn't fancy Woz against Kvitova, but as you say it is 9-1 and Kvitova can easily beat herself against any opponent at any stage.

Saw Stosur is 14-1 but her Wimbledon record is poor (never beyond 3rd round in 10 years despite being a highly ranked player).  The thing that makes Woz's price interesting is her domination over Stephens for me.   9-1 seems a decent wager to me.

[arbboy]

I was in Ladbrokes on Friday when a guy came in and wanted £500 on Baltic Fire at 7/2 in the 7.35 at Newmarket. It was 5/1 at Betfred and 5.7 on Betfair at the time. He was offered £200 only.

What were they thinking ?

Presumably bookmakers have Betfair accounts but do they have accounts with other bookmakers ?

What was the sp? and secondly, how much did u get on at bald at 5/1? haha

[arbboy]

I was in Ladbrokes on Friday when a guy came in and wanted £500 on Baltic Fire at 7/2 in the 7.35 at Newmarket. It was 5/1 at Betfred and 5.7 on Betfair at the time. He was offered £200 only.

What were they thinking ?

Presumably bookmakers have Betfair accounts but do they have accounts with other bookmakers ?

I feel another profit warning coming soon. Pretty unbelievable way to run a business. The Magic Sign > The Tragic Sign. Sad.

loltraders going to loltrade what does one expect?  In all seriousness ascot and the world cup in the last 2 weeks must have hurt ladbrokes.  They had issued profits warnings after the first quarter this year after those 2 'every fav won on the football' weekends in 3 weeks.  The 2nd qtr won't be much better i wouldn't have thought.  Would confidently expect a fall in projected profits at the half year statement to the end of June.  Would imagine they will be every further behind than they predicted at the end of march.