Tips for Tikay

[TightEnd]

should we just blast into Contador quick?

good news for the Valverde e/w bet, i expect

assuming anyone makes it through this horror stage/rain

[TightEnd]

http://www.oddschecker.com/awards/sports-personality-of-the-year/winner

6/4 lewis

9/1 wilkinson. froch

20/1 bar

with cav and froome out of contention since we last discussed it

[Tonji]

should we just blast into Contador quick?

good news for the Valverde e/w bet, i expect

assuming anyone makes it through this horror stage/rain

that!

[tikay]

Froome abandons the tour de France.  Good news for Wilkinson backers in SPOTY, not so much for those of us who have laid him in the Betfair place market

One by one, the SPOTY contendors are falling by the wayside, though Mardybum must have advanced his cause on Sunday.

[Tonji]

Movistar & Valverde trying to make it back to the peloton...hanging in there.

[TightEnd]

current tdef ourtighht on betfair

contador 1.55

nibali 5

porte 13

talansky 30

valverde 33


tonji once the fixed odds boys put their market back up with e/w terms, there might be something to do to find a podiator?

we have £15 e/w valverde at 18-1 and the risk was he was going to be behind froome, contador and nibali, iirc?

http://www.oddschecker.com/cycling/tour-de-france

 
come back after today's stage please!

[Tonji]

Sebastian Langeveld nicely placed...

[vegaslover]

surely gone now but nibali looks good

[TightEnd]

Nibali has been matched at 1.8 outright 2 hours after Contador was matched at 1.4

Valverde finished ahead of Contador....

[Tonji]

Nibali has been matched at 1.8 outright 2 hours after Contador was matched at 1.4

Valverde finished ahead of Contador....

Awful lot to digest after that, but that was a one off stage, it'll be back to more standard stage racing.

[sonour]

The draw in the cricket is in to evens now

[simonnatur]

World cup on tv, tumbleweed on Fred - you alright Tal?

[peejaytwo]

I looked at the Kempton 8.20 first thing this morning. Was really hoping to bet Dumbfounded at close to 4/1. I think it's a 9/4 chance and marginal value at 3/1, very solid each-way. The main danger is definitely Arashi and the race is pretty good for each-way with 9-runners and horses like Kent Ragstone and Reggie Perrin having lots to prove while Poitin and Markami are coming off bad runs and have doubts (Poitin-dodgepot? and Markami-trip?). Goldan Jass is priced as if it's certain to be ready after 317 days off and it has a good trainer but it would seem to be really assumed in the price. Albonny and Jezza look like the main dangers.

 Don't mind Arashi each-way but Dumbfounded each-way at 3/1 might be better.

 (I agree that generally races are better for each-way when there are a couple of 100/1+ chances and the favourite is skinny or the front two are 2/1 thus making the win prices of others stretch getting their place component to be too big).

didn't see it but from RP comments seems unlucky

[Tal]

World cup on tv, tumbleweed on Fred - you alright Tal?

Busy week, I'm afraid, so my appearances will be fleeting and sporadic.

Seems to have been a reasonable day for Valverde. Survived, so did his teammates, plenty of opportunities to catch two minutes up...oh and plenty of others had much worse days.

Did Contador get shown up today? Sounds like a silly question given he finished ahead of Valverde, but Movistar clearly wanted just to finish today, I'm assured.

[Tal]

I looked at the Kempton 8.20 first thing this morning. Was really hoping to bet Dumbfounded at close to 4/1. I think it's a 9/4 chance and marginal value at 3/1, very solid each-way. The main danger is definitely Arashi and the race is pretty good for each-way with 9-runners and horses like Kent Ragstone and Reggie Perrin having lots to prove while Poitin and Markami are coming off bad runs and have doubts (Poitin-dodgepot? and Markami-trip?). Goldan Jass is priced as if it's certain to be ready after 317 days off and it has a good trainer but it would seem to be really assumed in the price. Albonny and Jezza look like the main dangers.

 Don't mind Arashi each-way but Dumbfounded each-way at 3/1 might be better.

 (I agree that generally races are better for each-way when there are a couple of 100/1+ chances and the favourite is skinny or the front two are 2/1 thus making the win prices of others stretch getting their place component to be too big).

didn't see it but from RP comments seems unlucky

Mug punter rant follows:

How many more times will a jockey sit at the back at Kempton and leave it too late, when a front runner doesn't fade?