Ant
« Sent to: TightEnd on: Today at 10:26:43 AM »
Thought I would pm you with this first - post it up after if you like - also giving it to you first in case you like the bets, and can get someone else to possibly get on for you in the case of Bet365/Sky, anyway here you go. Cheers.
Bet suggestion - £150 on 40+ points for Palace next season at evens with Bet365
http://www.oddschecker.com/football/football-specials/crystal-palace/season-pointsUnder Pulis in 26 games - 26 scored
27 conceded - 38 points
Taking some liberties, if that points rate was elongated for the whole season it would equate to 55-56 points. Of course the mental side of a team coming together under initial duress could skew things favourably, as maybe without this surge the points haul wouldn‘t be so apparent.
Pulis points at Stoke each season he was there.
42
45
46
47
45
Also Palace had a striker playing most games up front that scored only two goals, had 40 attempts on goal too, Jerome. Expect more goals with Campbell/Gayle up front. Of course Jerome’s defensive contribution was great, but Campbell could offer something similar and Gayle could improve in that department as the season progresses.
Palace had a lot more chances than most imagine for their goal output. Bolasie was another wasteful player, 49 shots for no return, that might be a record. He probably took on so many shots because of the ineffectiveness of Jerome. The previous season he fed the striker, Murray, a lot more who got 31 goals.
The Whoscored stats for Palace look interesting, and I think with the solid defensive base that is evident there, if there is a clearer goalscoring outlet, which there could be, you could see a comfortable midtable side here. But there would be a lot of pressure on Campbell/Gayle/Puncheon for the goals. Chamakh will need to take more shots, because when he does he has an awesome record of one in every three shots.
On Palace's defence. Under Pulis, at a just over a goal a game conceded, only Chelsea, Everton and Man City were better. Great record. In Mile Jedinak, you have the best interceptor (could easily be the most interceptions made in any premier league season with 141), he also came second in tackles made and seventh overall of all players last season in terms of the whoscored ratings. A little bit of an unsung hero. Hopefully Ledley can look to emulate that partnering him in central defensive midfield, because Dikagcoi surely didn't.
Look under characteristics -
http://www.whoscored.com/Teams/162A lot of scoring chances, but less than a goal a game return, even under Pulis. No Jerome, I think remedies that, stops Bolasie shooting as much too, or even if it doesn’t, with that season of experience behind him and notable nearer misses near the end of the season, he may contribute better.
On the topic of how Campbell or Gayle could show an improvement to Jerome. Both scored 7 goals last season. Campbell played in a team that was not noted for scoring chances while Palace were…
http://www.whoscored.com/Teams/188So you can assume that he could score more with Palace, especially with his pace, and how we break very quickly on the counter.
With Gayle, he started only once under Pulis, scoring two, with injury at part to blame for his absence, and also how Pulis described, he was feeling the pressure of being the marquee signing and dropping him helped release the pressure. Gayle took 28 shots last season scoring seven, at a goal every 4 shots. Most other strikers are at around 8. I know its lol sample size, but I think it is enough to suggest he has enough to be a bit of a deadly finisher.
Brede Hangaland and Fraizer Campbell signed so far. With a defensive midfielder and a winger still on the cards to bring in to provide competition.
If Pulis had a record last season of just shy of 1.5 points a game, I think it isn’t too much of a stretch to think he could achieve 1.05 points a game with an ok amount of comfort.
Will Palace be less of a force this season? Got nothing really to suggest this, only that we may improve.
The only real danger I can see is Campbell or Gayle not harassing enough from the front to ease the
pressure from the back, but Pulis will be on their case quickly if they falter. If they emulate Jerome 80%
to what he contributed last season in this department, then I think they should more than make up for it with their goals tally.
Ledley is going to be starting central defensive midfield, which means a bit of a new partnership with Jedinak, but this, on paper, should be better than the Jedinak/Dikagcoi combo. We have Guediora and O’Keefe as cover here, and I think Pulis will bring another man in. We are light on cover for wingers too, but with the recent close but failed signing of Arsenal’s Gnabry, there is clear intent from Pulis to provide competition here. Regardless of that we have Jerome Thomas, Barry Bannan and Jonny Williams and youth team product Jake Gray that can all offer something in these roles. Even Jimmy Kebe, but I doubt it will come to that.
At CB, we have 3 capable prem players, and Mariappa can do a job there if called upon. At wing backs, we are light, in only Ward and Mariappa, with no sign of signing any more. A youth team product, Jerome Williams, looks to be the next man in if either of the aforementioned get injured which is interesting. Haven’t seen enough of him to offer a viewpoint. Very surprised he hasn’t looked to the transfer market here, but he must have faith in him.
Up front you have 4 players available for two roles which is fine. Also Stephen Dobbie as an emergency. Also Hennessey and Speroni offering good competition for the starting berth which is solid.
Palace are likely to play the same counter attacking style, that had us average close to 35% possession all year. We let teams meet us in our own half, they often find it hard to break us down, we get the ball and we explode up the pitch often. I think it’s a good style for the Prem and one that will work again for us.
I think 40+ on the points is too low and think £150 is the sum to put on it. (But I know this is unlikely.)
As a side note. I would like opinions on the other teams on the other side of these match bets
Palace 8/11 vs. QPR evens
Palace 11/10 vs. West Ham 8/11
Palace 10/11 vs. West Brom 4/5
Palace 4/5 vs. Leicester 10/11
Palace 10/11 vs. Hull 10/11
As a guide here is the Sporting Index spread on West Ham 41.5-43
Palace 40.5-42
Hull 39.5-41
Leicester 38.5-40
West Brom 37.5-39
QPR 36.5-38
Of those I am confident there is value in two.
I think Hull may be distracted by the Europa League next season. Palace were 8 points better off at the end and that was with the Holloway start, so there is a confidence here. Notable signings include Tom Ince, who was pretty unimpressive at Palace, and Snodgrass.
Suggest £110 at 10/11 realise this is with Sky, the 13/15 with Bwin I think is also value.
http://www.oddschecker.com/football/season-match-bets/hull-v-crystal-palace/tournament-match-bettingAnd I think West Brom who underperformed last year, now with an inexperienced manager may struggle for points compared to Palace. Last season there was a 9 points gap. New signings include Baird, Gamboa and Ideye.
Suggest £110 at 10/11
http://www.oddschecker.com/football/season-match-bets/west-brom-v-crystal-palace/tournament-match-bettingAlso think this bet is value at the long odds, in case Palace maintain the points to games ratio Pulis had for his 26 games. Decent enough sample size to think there is value in a 20/1 shot of him doing it again over the course of the season as 55-56 points would see 8th place close to being in the bag.
http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/premier-league/w-o-big-7Suggest £15 at 20/1
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