Tips for Tikay

[TightEnd]

Been reading this thread with interest for a little while but this is my first contribution. I live in Berlin and I follow German football especially Bundesliga.2 (their version of the Championship). I'm not a big sportsbetter but I am an occasional punter.

Bwin's market for top 4 in Bundesliga doesn't look right to me.
http://www.oddschecker.com/football/germany/bundesliga/top-4-finish

Here are the stats from last season.
3. Schalke  points 64
4. Leverkusen 61
5. Wolfsburg 60
6. M'gladbach 55
7. Mainz 54

This season Gladbach & Hoffenheim have 13 points, Leverkusen 12, Mainz and Wolfsburg 11 and Schalke 8

The odds for a top 4 finish on Bwin are as follows:

Schalke evens
Leverkusen 7/20
Wolfsburg 7/4
M'Gladbach evens
Hoffenheim 9/2
Mainz 40/1

These odds don't make sense to me. Mainz changed coaches and many viewed them as overachievers last season and they were knocked out of the Europa preliminaries (which is actually more of a plus than anything for this bet). But they are unbeaten with 2 wins and 5 draws and have much of the same team. They have beaten Dortmund and last week drew away at Gladbach. They have a record of picking unheralded coaches and punching above their weight.

Schalke and Leverkusen have been top four the past two seasons but it has been close both years and both are very inconsistent. You would expect Dortmund to be there but they have had a shocker so far. Wolfsburg and Gladbach are solid teams and Hoffenheim have had a good start. It as a very lopsided division with Bayern so strong, but take them out of the equation and I don't think it is the case that there is a huge gulf between top 6 and the rest, certainly not as big as these Bwin odds suggest. Take out the last two seasons and lots of other sides have made the top 4. Gladbach, Hannover, Hertha, Stuttgart, Werder Bremen and somehow Wolfsburg even won it.

For context, Mainz are best priced at 12s elsewhere. Any Bundesliga fans, what do you think of my thoughts on this market? Am I missing something? Obviously Mainz are outsiders but this much of an outsider? Personally I don't think so and I'm having some money on. There could also be some value with some of the other long odds teams as bwin seen to be heavily favouring the 'Big Six' but I have no idea which of them could put a run together.

hello Mr Roo

first bet too i think

can't resist a bit of 40-1

10/11/2014 9:24 AM    Single bet    

    open Bundesliga 2014/2015 - Top 4 Finish (Which team will finish in the top 4?)
    Mainz
    ?

   20.00    41.00

[tikay]

Baseball BOOM!

What a team the Royals are proving to be.

Tremendous sweat, this.

I heard they only play at night, too. (Sunshine banned).

[Doobs]

Baseball BOOM!

What a team the Royals are proving to be.

Tremendous sweat, this.

I heard they only play at night, too. (Sunshine banned).

That's the way.  I like it.

[TightEnd]

I'm not around much today but this was quite interesting from yesterday


"Swapping times with the Mercedes’ on primes was quite interesting," says Jenson Button on McLaren's surprise start

"Jenson Button believes McLaren’s MP4-29 simply suits the layout of Sochi’s new circuit after the team surprisingly hit the ground running at the Russian GP.

In what arguably represented McLaren’s most convincingly competitive start to a grand prix weekend in two seasons, both Button and Kevin Magnussen ran in the top six on the timesheet throughout Friday with the Dane only outpaced by Mercedes’ Lewis Hamilton in the later session.

McLaren were particularly competitive relative to the two W05s on the harder prime tyre with the Woking outfit’s drivers trading fastest times with the runaway championship leaders during P2 before Hamilton made a big step forward on the soft compound.

Button, who lost ground on the qualifying simulations and wound up four places behind Magnussen in sixth, was delighted with the speed of the MP4-29 on the opening day.

“It’s been good all day. One of us has put a good lap in all day long,” the 34-year-old told Sky Sports News . “For me the prime tyre’s been working better, option on long runs is also very good, but I set the car up around the primes so when I put the option on it wasn’t working.

“But we can find the pace, which is exciting. We’re a lot more in the mix than previous races, swapping times with the Mercedes’ on primes was quite interesting, not so much on option.”"



you can get 8-1 K-Mag here

http://www.oddschecker.com/motorsport/formula-one/russian-grand-prix/podium-finish


FP3 starts at 8.55am

but if you think the McLaren pair might be in the mix with Williams ahead of redbull, ferrari, and that looks likely, the podium market looks eccentrically priced

[tikay]

I have for you what is, I think, my first ever Bet Recommend.

Only a shortie, but this looks the value spot to end all value spots, the biggest value pie we'll ever eat.






Last weekend, at the Suzuka GP, a dreadful tragedy occurred. A car crashed into the JCB which was being used to remove a car that crashed earlier, & the driver was gravely injured. The Safety Car had NOT been deployed.

There was much talk before that due to the dangerous conditions, the race should have started earlier, later, or not at all. The aftertimers piled into the F1 authorities - "this must never happen again".

Now, one week later, the F1 circus moves to a brand new track @ Sochi, in Russia. It is, essentially, a "street track" in the grounds of the Olympic Park. It is a very technical track, the third longest in the schedule, with lots of ridiculously tight corners.





Almost the entire track is sandwiched between safety fences & walls, with limited run off areas. Worse still, there are very few "escape gates" into which broken down or crashed cars can be quickly & safely removed.  

Click to see full-size image.

The chances of "No Safety Car" must be exceedingly remote, to say the least.

We can get 4/9 "NO SAFETY CAR", with WH, although many have it at 1/3.


http://www.oddschecker.com/motorsport/formula-one/russian-grand-prix/safety-car


I recommend £90 to win £40. Best 24 hour interest rate on your money you'll ever see.

[tikay]

I'm not around much today but this was quite interesting from yesterday


"Swapping times with the Mercedes’ on primes was quite interesting," says Jenson Button on McLaren's surprise start

"Jenson Button believes McLaren’s MP4-29 simply suits the layout of Sochi’s new circuit after the team surprisingly hit the ground running at the Russian GP.

In what arguably represented McLaren’s most convincingly competitive start to a grand prix weekend in two seasons, both Button and Kevin Magnussen ran in the top six on the timesheet throughout Friday with the Dane only outpaced by Mercedes’ Lewis Hamilton in the later session.

McLaren were particularly competitive relative to the two W05s on the harder prime tyre with the Woking outfit’s drivers trading fastest times with the runaway championship leaders during P2 before Hamilton made a big step forward on the soft compound.

Button, who lost ground on the qualifying simulations and wound up four places behind Magnussen in sixth, was delighted with the speed of the MP4-29 on the opening day.

“It’s been good all day. One of us has put a good lap in all day long,” the 34-year-old told Sky Sports News . “For me the prime tyre’s been working better, option on long runs is also very good, but I set the car up around the primes so when I put the option on it wasn’t working.

“But we can find the pace, which is exciting. We’re a lot more in the mix than previous races, swapping times with the Mercedes’ on primes was quite interesting, not so much on option.”"



you can get 8-1 K-Mag here

http://www.oddschecker.com/motorsport/formula-one/russian-grand-prix/podium-finish


FP3 starts at 8.55am

but if you think the McLaren pair might be in the mix with Williams ahead of redbull, ferrari, and that looks likely, the podium market looks eccentrically priced

Up to you Rich, if you think it's good, load up.

[TightEnd]

I have for you what is, I think, my first ever Bet Recommend.

Only a shortie, but this looks the value spot to end all value spots, the biggest value pie we'll ever eat.






Last weekend, at the Suzuka GP, a dreadful tragedy occurred. A car crashed into the JCB which was being used to remove a car that crashed earlier, & the driver was gravely injured. The Safety Car had NOT been deployed.

There was much talk before that due to the dangerous conditions, the race should have started earlier, later, or not at all. The aftertimers piled into the F1 authorities - "this must never happen again".

Now, one week later, the F1 circus moves to a brand new track @ Sochi, in Russia. It is, essentially, a "street track" in the grounds of the Olympic Park. It is a very technical track, the third longest in the schedule, with lots of ridiculously tight corners.





Almost the entire track is sandwiched between safety fences & walls, with limited run off areas. Worse still, there are very few "escape gates" into which broken down or crashed cars can be quickly & safely removed. 

Click to see full-size image.

The chances of "No Safety Car" must be exceedingly remote, to say the least.

We can get 4/9 "NO SAFETY CAR", with WH, although many have it at 1/3.


http://www.oddschecker.com/motorsport/formula-one/russian-grand-prix/safety-car


I recommend £90 to win £40. Best 24 hour interest rate on your money you'll ever see.

well, first timers recommendations are placed automatically

so welcome along, and good luck with your maiden bet

please stick around.

williamhill is 2/5 not 4/9

but i could get 1.45 on bwin which beats betfair

10/11/2014 9:58 AM    Single bet    

    open GP Russia - Race, Specialbets (Will there be a safety car period during the race?)
    Yes
    ?

   90.00    1.45

[Doobs]

I'm not around much today but this was quite interesting from yesterday


"Swapping times with the Mercedes’ on primes was quite interesting," says Jenson Button on McLaren's surprise start

"Jenson Button believes McLaren’s MP4-29 simply suits the layout of Sochi’s new circuit after the team surprisingly hit the ground running at the Russian GP.

In what arguably represented McLaren’s most convincingly competitive start to a grand prix weekend in two seasons, both Button and Kevin Magnussen ran in the top six on the timesheet throughout Friday with the Dane only outpaced by Mercedes’ Lewis Hamilton in the later session.

McLaren were particularly competitive relative to the two W05s on the harder prime tyre with the Woking outfit’s drivers trading fastest times with the runaway championship leaders during P2 before Hamilton made a big step forward on the soft compound.

Button, who lost ground on the qualifying simulations and wound up four places behind Magnussen in sixth, was delighted with the speed of the MP4-29 on the opening day.

“It’s been good all day. One of us has put a good lap in all day long,” the 34-year-old told Sky Sports News . “For me the prime tyre’s been working better, option on long runs is also very good, but I set the car up around the primes so when I put the option on it wasn’t working.

“But we can find the pace, which is exciting. We’re a lot more in the mix than previous races, swapping times with the Mercedes’ on primes was quite interesting, not so much on option.”"



you can get 8-1 K-Mag here

http://www.oddschecker.com/motorsport/formula-one/russian-grand-prix/podium-finish


FP3 starts at 8.55am

but if you think the McLaren pair might be in the mix with Williams ahead of redbull, ferrari, and that looks likely, the podium market looks eccentrically priced

Ricciardo 4/11 not to podium too?  Betneverandaday though

[TightEnd]

I'm not around much today but this was quite interesting from yesterday


"Swapping times with the Mercedes’ on primes was quite interesting," says Jenson Button on McLaren's surprise start

"Jenson Button believes McLaren’s MP4-29 simply suits the layout of Sochi’s new circuit after the team surprisingly hit the ground running at the Russian GP.

In what arguably represented McLaren’s most convincingly competitive start to a grand prix weekend in two seasons, both Button and Kevin Magnussen ran in the top six on the timesheet throughout Friday with the Dane only outpaced by Mercedes’ Lewis Hamilton in the later session.

McLaren were particularly competitive relative to the two W05s on the harder prime tyre with the Woking outfit’s drivers trading fastest times with the runaway championship leaders during P2 before Hamilton made a big step forward on the soft compound.

Button, who lost ground on the qualifying simulations and wound up four places behind Magnussen in sixth, was delighted with the speed of the MP4-29 on the opening day.

“It’s been good all day. One of us has put a good lap in all day long,” the 34-year-old told Sky Sports News . “For me the prime tyre’s been working better, option on long runs is also very good, but I set the car up around the primes so when I put the option on it wasn’t working.

“But we can find the pace, which is exciting. We’re a lot more in the mix than previous races, swapping times with the Mercedes’ on primes was quite interesting, not so much on option.”"



you can get 8-1 K-Mag here

http://www.oddschecker.com/motorsport/formula-one/russian-grand-prix/podium-finish


FP3 starts at 8.55am

but if you think the McLaren pair might be in the mix with Williams ahead of redbull, ferrari, and that looks likely, the podium market looks eccentrically priced

Up to you Rich, if you think it's good, load up.

prices down for FP3

If it looks good after FP3 please do it, as i will be travelling til around qualifying time

[Doobs]

I'm not around much today but this was quite interesting from yesterday


"Swapping times with the Mercedes’ on primes was quite interesting," says Jenson Button on McLaren's surprise start

"Jenson Button believes McLaren’s MP4-29 simply suits the layout of Sochi’s new circuit after the team surprisingly hit the ground running at the Russian GP.

In what arguably represented McLaren’s most convincingly competitive start to a grand prix weekend in two seasons, both Button and Kevin Magnussen ran in the top six on the timesheet throughout Friday with the Dane only outpaced by Mercedes’ Lewis Hamilton in the later session.

McLaren were particularly competitive relative to the two W05s on the harder prime tyre with the Woking outfit’s drivers trading fastest times with the runaway championship leaders during P2 before Hamilton made a big step forward on the soft compound.

Button, who lost ground on the qualifying simulations and wound up four places behind Magnussen in sixth, was delighted with the speed of the MP4-29 on the opening day.

“It’s been good all day. One of us has put a good lap in all day long,” the 34-year-old told Sky Sports News . “For me the prime tyre’s been working better, option on long runs is also very good, but I set the car up around the primes so when I put the option on it wasn’t working.

“But we can find the pace, which is exciting. We’re a lot more in the mix than previous races, swapping times with the Mercedes’ on primes was quite interesting, not so much on option.”"



you can get 8-1 K-Mag here

http://www.oddschecker.com/motorsport/formula-one/russian-grand-prix/podium-finish


FP3 starts at 8.55am

but if you think the McLaren pair might be in the mix with Williams ahead of redbull, ferrari, and that looks likely, the podium market looks eccentrically priced

Up to you Rich, if you think it's good, load up.

prices down for FP3

If it looks good after FP3 please do it, as i will be travelling til around qualifying time

Can have a tenner of mine at 8/1 now if Tikay missed it too.

[tikay]

I'm not around much today but this was quite interesting from yesterday


"Swapping times with the Mercedes’ on primes was quite interesting," says Jenson Button on McLaren's surprise start

"Jenson Button believes McLaren’s MP4-29 simply suits the layout of Sochi’s new circuit after the team surprisingly hit the ground running at the Russian GP.

In what arguably represented McLaren’s most convincingly competitive start to a grand prix weekend in two seasons, both Button and Kevin Magnussen ran in the top six on the timesheet throughout Friday with the Dane only outpaced by Mercedes’ Lewis Hamilton in the later session.

McLaren were particularly competitive relative to the two W05s on the harder prime tyre with the Woking outfit’s drivers trading fastest times with the runaway championship leaders during P2 before Hamilton made a big step forward on the soft compound.

Button, who lost ground on the qualifying simulations and wound up four places behind Magnussen in sixth, was delighted with the speed of the MP4-29 on the opening day.

“It’s been good all day. One of us has put a good lap in all day long,” the 34-year-old told Sky Sports News . “For me the prime tyre’s been working better, option on long runs is also very good, but I set the car up around the primes so when I put the option on it wasn’t working.

“But we can find the pace, which is exciting. We’re a lot more in the mix than previous races, swapping times with the Mercedes’ on primes was quite interesting, not so much on option.”"



you can get 8-1 K-Mag here

http://www.oddschecker.com/motorsport/formula-one/russian-grand-prix/podium-finish


FP3 starts at 8.55am

but if you think the McLaren pair might be in the mix with Williams ahead of redbull, ferrari, and that looks likely, the podium market looks eccentrically priced

Up to you Rich, if you think it's good, load up.

prices down for FP3

If it looks good after FP3 please do it, as i will be travelling til around qualifying time

I'll have no idea what is "good", but if someone else advises me, I'll do the necessary.

[tikay]

I'm not around much today but this was quite interesting from yesterday


"Swapping times with the Mercedes’ on primes was quite interesting," says Jenson Button on McLaren's surprise start

"Jenson Button believes McLaren’s MP4-29 simply suits the layout of Sochi’s new circuit after the team surprisingly hit the ground running at the Russian GP.

In what arguably represented McLaren’s most convincingly competitive start to a grand prix weekend in two seasons, both Button and Kevin Magnussen ran in the top six on the timesheet throughout Friday with the Dane only outpaced by Mercedes’ Lewis Hamilton in the later session.

McLaren were particularly competitive relative to the two W05s on the harder prime tyre with the Woking outfit’s drivers trading fastest times with the runaway championship leaders during P2 before Hamilton made a big step forward on the soft compound.

Button, who lost ground on the qualifying simulations and wound up four places behind Magnussen in sixth, was delighted with the speed of the MP4-29 on the opening day.

“It’s been good all day. One of us has put a good lap in all day long,” the 34-year-old told Sky Sports News . “For me the prime tyre’s been working better, option on long runs is also very good, but I set the car up around the primes so when I put the option on it wasn’t working.

“But we can find the pace, which is exciting. We’re a lot more in the mix than previous races, swapping times with the Mercedes’ on primes was quite interesting, not so much on option.”"



you can get 8-1 K-Mag here

http://www.oddschecker.com/motorsport/formula-one/russian-grand-prix/podium-finish


FP3 starts at 8.55am

but if you think the McLaren pair might be in the mix with Williams ahead of redbull, ferrari, and that looks likely, the podium market looks eccentrically priced

Up to you Rich, if you think it's good, load up.

prices down for FP3

If it looks good after FP3 please do it, as i will be travelling til around qualifying time

Can have a tenner of mine at 8/1 now if Tikay missed it too.

Yes please David.

BOOKED?

[TightEnd]

ok no bother

we'll take Doobs' £10 now, for value

Bottas 7/4 Button 9/2 Magnussen 8/1 and assorted non-mercedes powered cars 3-1 to 5-1 looks a head scratcher to me

[horseplayer]

Tikay been hacked by Tighty?

[Doobs]

I'm not around much today but this was quite interesting from yesterday


"Swapping times with the Mercedes’ on primes was quite interesting," says Jenson Button on McLaren's surprise start

"Jenson Button believes McLaren’s MP4-29 simply suits the layout of Sochi’s new circuit after the team surprisingly hit the ground running at the Russian GP.

In what arguably represented McLaren’s most convincingly competitive start to a grand prix weekend in two seasons, both Button and Kevin Magnussen ran in the top six on the timesheet throughout Friday with the Dane only outpaced by Mercedes’ Lewis Hamilton in the later session.

McLaren were particularly competitive relative to the two W05s on the harder prime tyre with the Woking outfit’s drivers trading fastest times with the runaway championship leaders during P2 before Hamilton made a big step forward on the soft compound.

Button, who lost ground on the qualifying simulations and wound up four places behind Magnussen in sixth, was delighted with the speed of the MP4-29 on the opening day.

“It’s been good all day. One of us has put a good lap in all day long,” the 34-year-old told Sky Sports News . “For me the prime tyre’s been working better, option on long runs is also very good, but I set the car up around the primes so when I put the option on it wasn’t working.

“But we can find the pace, which is exciting. We’re a lot more in the mix than previous races, swapping times with the Mercedes’ on primes was quite interesting, not so much on option.”"



you can get 8-1 K-Mag here

http://www.oddschecker.com/motorsport/formula-one/russian-grand-prix/podium-finish


FP3 starts at 8.55am

but if you think the McLaren pair might be in the mix with Williams ahead of redbull, ferrari, and that looks likely, the podium market looks eccentrically priced

Up to you Rich, if you think it's good, load up.

prices down for FP3

If it looks good after FP3 please do it, as i will be travelling til around qualifying time

Can have a tenner of mine at 8/1 now if Tikay missed it too.

Yes please David.

BOOKED?

Booked, sort it after the race.