Tips for Tikay

[Doobs]

Opinion is defiantly running in Melbourne cup. 50/1 ante post best price Coral from yesterday... e/w wiiiii

Runs on Tuesday

If anyone is thinking of doing this, you can get 79/1 on Betfair and better place odds.

Any love for Cavalryman here?  I don't know the Aussie form at all, so haven't had a bet.

[horseplayer]

Re hills weather bet

Will be settled this afternoon

[BigAdz]

Opinion is defiantly running in Melbourne cup. 50/1 ante post best price Coral from yesterday... e/w wiiiii

Runs on Tuesday

If anyone is thinking of doing this, you can get 79/1 on Betfair and better place odds.

Any love for Cavalryman here?  I don't know the Aussie form at all, so haven't had a bet.

I liked both Godolphin horses, but Cav injured foot and now doubtful.

[Doobs]

Opinion is defiantly running in Melbourne cup. 50/1 ante post best price Coral from yesterday... e/w wiiiii

Runs on Tuesday

If anyone is thinking of doing this, you can get 79/1 on Betfair and better place odds.

Any love for Cavalryman here?  I don't know the Aussie form at all, so haven't had a bet.

I liked both Godolphin horses, but Cav injured foot and now doubtful.

Cheers Adz

[Tal]

Hope it doesn’t tread on any toes, but I found some time in a designated lunch break to go through Fred’s NFL position. As Fred is woefully lacking in Strictly Come Dancing bets and as I’m still recovering from yesterday’s robbery at Villa Park, I’d best just cover the one bit. No idea how Tighty does the whole lot in a day!
 
We are a little over half way through the season, with week 9 of 16 nearly done (just Indianapolis @ New York Giants to come tonight). Fred has two bets on where teams will finish in their division:
 
AFC East 4th Dolphins 4/1 £50
AFC West 1st Chargers 13/2 £20
 
Yesterday, these two teams played each other. The Chargers were 5-3 and had made a lot of positive noises this season, albeit falling short against Denver. The Dolphins have arguably been the surprise of the season (even more so than the Dallas Cowboys – more of that anon), 4-3 with some impressive results, which belie their oft-maligned offensive frailty.
 
Fred’s desired result was as transparent as a Chris Moorman bluff on a queen high board: San Diego Chargers to win, please.
 
The game was so one-sided, broadcasters refused to show it in 3D. Ryan Tannehill threw for 288 yards, the defense secured four turnovers and the Dolphins marmalised their opponents 37-0. It’s the first time San Diego has failed to score since 1999. They’ve thrown a touchdown pass in each of their last 28 games. In the first seven possessions the Dolphins had, the only time they didn’t score was when the kicker, Caleb Sturgis, missed a 45 yard field goal at the end of the first half. The Dolphins clearly had an agenda and that might well have been down to the loss of their Head Coach’s father in the week; somehow, they found a storybook performance on both sides of the ball. Fred is delighted for them...ish...
 
The Dolphins are 5-3 and third, ahead of the New York Jets, who’ve played a game more and are 1-8. The Chargers are slightly better positioned: 5-4 puts them third, behind the 6-2 Broncos and the 5-3 Chiefs. However, three consecutive losses isn’t really how you win your division.
 
A question was asked as to whether these two bets are dead, using a horse racing metaphor. Dolphins: Poorly positioned, under pressure, clattering into fences, McCoy has a double handful in front and we have Jamie Spencer on board. Chargers: mid-position, threatening to be boxed in and Leighton Aspell is offering more encouragement than we’d like to see, turning from the back straight.
 
Moving on, then...
 
Superbowl Packers 14/1 20 £10 e/w 1/2 1,2
NFC Conference Packers 14/1 £10 e/w 1/2 1,2
NFC Conference Packers 14/1 £10 e/w 1/2 1,2
NFC Conference Eagles 25/1 £10 e/w 1/2 1,2
AFC Conference Steelers 14/1 £10 e/w 1/2 1,2
Superbowl Eagles 14/1 £10 e/w 1/2 1,2
Superbowl Packers 8/1 £10 e/w 1/2 1,2
MVP LeSean McCoy 66/1 £2.49
 
The Green Bay Packers had a bye week, so remain second in their division, one win behind the defensively nitty Detroit Lions.
 
The Philadelphia Eagles won their game in Houston, after spending the hour trading scores, thanks in part to having spent an extra five minutes with the ball (tends to help scoring if you have it). This is the signature of Chip Kelly offense. Nineteenth choice running back, Chris Polk, became the 256th offensive weapon this team has at its disposal. At 6-2, they lead the division with a game in hand.
 
In second place in that division is the former “Best Team in Footbawl”, the Dallas Cowboys, who had found a way to win, despite their Magic 8 Ball System for calling plays in key situations. Their loss to the beastly Arizona Cardinals is good in the sense that it gets Philly to the top of the division. However, it is a concern in that the Cards look the real deal in the NFC and, with a 7-1 record, they threaten to secure home field advantage for the playoffs.
 
LeSean McCoy added 117 yards to his tally, which is good, but it hasn’t particularly enhanced his prospects of getting the MVP nod.  
 
One man who is doing his stats no harm of late is Steelers QB, “Big” Ben Rothlisberger. He was little short of sensational again last night in a big divisional matchup, against the Baltimore Ravens. He became the first QB ever to throw 12 touchdown passes in a two week span. Only one other quarterback has had two games with 6 TD passes in a season and that was Y A Tittle in 1962, when Tottenham were playing in the European Cup as league champions. 45% of his throws of >15 yards have been successful, which is frankly ridiculous. Antonio Brown has been his primary target and he has had 80 receiving yards for a record 11 consecutive outings. The Steelers are second in the AFC North, but there’s little between them and the Bengals in that division.
 
NFL Comeback Player of the Year Aaron Rodgers 12/1 £9.16
Offensive Rookie of the Year Brandin Cooks 10/1 £15
Offensive Rookie of the Year Kelvin Benjamin 20/1 £10
Defensive Rookie of the Year Aaron Donald 20/1 £15
 
Rodgers was on a Bye, as discussed above. He must be right at the top of the market for this bet now, though, with the team’s success casting a favourable light on him. Kelvin Benjamin for the Carolina Panthers and Brandin Cooks for the New Orleans Saints offered little in their game on Thursday. Mike Evans’s two TD performance for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers will have enabled him to close the gap. Sammy Watkins is the other contender and he was on a Bye week with the Bills.
 
Most Regular Season Rushing Yards jamaal charles 12/1 £15 e/w 1/4 1,2,3,4
Most Regular Season Rushing Yards Lesean McCoy 4/1 £20
Most Regular Season Passing Yards Matt Ryan 16/1 £10 e/w 1/4 1,2,3
 
Jamaal Charles has 435 yards and is 15th, with fourth (McCoy) on 622 and the leader on 1,133. He’s had injuries and the team isn’t quite what we expected. Not insurmountable but needs a very good run of stats and some injuries above.
 
Matt Ryan is dropping down the ratings faster than Mauricio Pochettino, although that’s more a reflection of the chaps around him than his own ability (in before “much like Pochettino”). That bet is going to struggle to land, as the team seems to be planning for 2015 already.
 

Team to concede fewest points Bengals 16/1 £20
 
Injuries have ruined this bet, with the team a mere 14th in this department. The Bengals have leaked 187 points, which is some 61 behind the aforementioned nitty Lions.
 
So, that tells you where we are. Most of our positions were on at double digit prices and the performance of the Packers or the Eagles will probably define how well Fred does this season.

Forgive the lack of pictures (taken far longer than I expected!) and thanks for reading this far!

[Bazzaboy]

any love for Merv King at 125/1 at bwin for the PDC world darts?  I know he choked massively yday against Wade in the final of the masters.  He is 11th in the order of merit (rankings) and is only £10k in prize money off a top 8 spot.  Clearly he is playing well at the minute and 125/1 looks on the large side for anyone around the top 10 in the world for the worlds.

It can't be bad given how ool it is. His win against MVG was as good as I've seen from him. Hopefully he doesn't climb any higher in the rankings between now and the cutoff point. I'd rather he avoided MVG and Taylor's quarters.

[arbboy]

any love for Merv King at 125/1 at bwin for the PDC world darts?  I know he choked massively yday against Wade in the final of the masters.  He is 11th in the order of merit (rankings) and is only £10k in prize money off a top 8 spot.  Clearly he is playing well at the minute and 125/1 looks on the large side for anyone around the top 10 in the world for the worlds.

It can't be bad given how ool it is. His win against MVG was as good as I've seen from him. Hopefully he doesn't climb any higher in the rankings between now and the cutoff point. I'd rather he avoided MVG and Taylor's quarters.

I have always thought this.  Do you think there is an angle in the comps directly before the cut off for the worlds with certain players in certain ranking spots being massively up for winning/losing to avoid the 1 and 2 seed draws at the worlds given for the lower ranked players going one more round at the worlds could easily be worth a top 16/32 place which is so crucial for the following year because the worlds prize pool is so much bigger than any other event?

[Tonji]

Good work Tal, any chance of more of your elegant prose update on SCD thread. ok, ok, I got hooked watching this week, & need a financial interest to keep the guilt at a manageable level 

[Bazzaboy]

any love for Merv King at 125/1 at bwin for the PDC world darts?  I know he choked massively yday against Wade in the final of the masters.  He is 11th in the order of merit (rankings) and is only £10k in prize money off a top 8 spot.  Clearly he is playing well at the minute and 125/1 looks on the large side for anyone around the top 10 in the world for the worlds.

It can't be bad given how ool it is. His win against MVG was as good as I've seen from him. Hopefully he doesn't climb any higher in the rankings between now and the cutoff point. I'd rather he avoided MVG and Taylor's quarters.

I have always thought this.  Do you think there is an angle in the comps directly before the cut off for the worlds with certain players in certain ranking spots being massively up for winning/losing to avoid the 1 and 2 seed draws at the worlds given for the lower ranked players going one more round at the worlds could easily be worth a top 16/32 place which is so crucial for the following year because the worlds prize pool is so much bigger than any other event?

Yes but probably not as much of an angle as there was a few years back when it was Taylor>>>>rest so there was a massive advantage to being in the "right" half of the draw.

[arbboy]

any love for Merv King at 125/1 at bwin for the PDC world darts?  I know he choked massively yday against Wade in the final of the masters.  He is 11th in the order of merit (rankings) and is only £10k in prize money off a top 8 spot.  Clearly he is playing well at the minute and 125/1 looks on the large side for anyone around the top 10 in the world for the worlds.

It can't be bad given how ool it is. His win against MVG was as good as I've seen from him. Hopefully he doesn't climb any higher in the rankings between now and the cutoff point. I'd rather he avoided MVG and Taylor's quarters.

I have always thought this.  Do you think there is an angle in the comps directly before the cut off for the worlds with certain players in certain ranking spots being massively up for winning/losing to avoid the 1 and 2 seed draws at the worlds given for the lower ranked players going one more round at the worlds could easily be worth a top 16/32 place which is so crucial for the following year because the worlds prize pool is so much bigger than any other event?

Yes but probably not as much of an angle as there was a few years back when it was Taylor>>>>rest so there was a massive advantage to being in the "right" half of the draw.

Agreed but if you worked out the draw from the seeds getting into say newton/whitlock/hamiltons quarter or something like that if two of them are in the same quarter is a massive edge.  All 3 of them will be out of the top 10 after the worlds barring a miracle once their 2 year money falls off.  Newton is actually sitting 16th as we speak which must be the nut worse spot for him to be sitting given his need for money.

[BigAdz]

Nice update Tal. Even avoided any barbs!! .


Very diplomatic Sir.

[Tal]

Nice update Tal. Even avoided any barbs!! .


Very diplomatic Sir.

Thanks. Any barbs are purely sotto voce. I try to avoid the bruising stuff

[BigAdz]

Nice update Tal. Even avoided any barbs!! .


Very diplomatic Sir.

Thanks. Any barbs are purely sotto voce. I try to avoid the bruising stuff

LOL. Understood.

[arbboy]

great ew race coming up at wolves 455pm

http://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing-betting/wolverhampton/16:55/winner

[Bazzaboy]

any love for Merv King at 125/1 at bwin for the PDC world darts?  I know he choked massively yday against Wade in the final of the masters.  He is 11th in the order of merit (rankings) and is only £10k in prize money off a top 8 spot.  Clearly he is playing well at the minute and 125/1 looks on the large side for anyone around the top 10 in the world for the worlds.

It can't be bad given how ool it is. His win against MVG was as good as I've seen from him. Hopefully he doesn't climb any higher in the rankings between now and the cutoff point. I'd rather he avoided MVG and Taylor's quarters.

I have always thought this.  Do you think there is an angle in the comps directly before the cut off for the worlds with certain players in certain ranking spots being massively up for winning/losing to avoid the 1 and 2 seed draws at the worlds given for the lower ranked players going one more round at the worlds could easily be worth a top 16/32 place which is so crucial for the following year because the worlds prize pool is so much bigger than any other event?

Yes but probably not as much of an angle as there was a few years back when it was Taylor>>>>rest so there was a massive advantage to being in the "right" half of the draw.

Agreed but if you worked out the draw from the seeds getting into say newton/whitlock/hamiltons quarter or something like that if two of them are in the same quarter is a massive edge.  All 3 of them will be out of the top 10 after the worlds barring a miracle once their 2 year money falls off.  Newton is actually sitting 16th as we speak which must be the nut worse spot for him to be sitting given his need for money.

It was looking like there was going to be a weak quarter with Wright and Whitlock ranked 4 and 5 and both struggling for form. Wade leapfrogging Whitlock has countered that to some extent. Will keep an eye on it going in to the Players Championship finals. Also players ranked 33 or 334 in the OOM who have already got a qualification spot would be better served tanking and taking their chances in the draw rather than end up in 32nd with MVG in R2.