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Author Topic: Tips for Tikay  (Read 16158833 times)
redarmi
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« Reply #90780 on: November 17, 2014, 03:59:10 AM »

Jonas gray at 14/1 with Ladbrokes to score next TD is way too big.  If he is that price at that will be a pretty good bet too.  Also think 13/5 Fleener anytime TD scorer is pretty good given how pats are setting up on D.

Not sure you could run much worse there, unlucky mate.

How about if he was to score the one after?
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Marky147
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« Reply #90781 on: November 17, 2014, 04:01:47 AM »

Jonas gray at 14/1 with Ladbrokes to score next TD is way too big.  If he is that price at that will be a pretty good bet too.  Also think 13/5 Fleener anytime TD scorer is pretty good given how pats are setting up on D.

Not sure you could run much worse there, unlucky mate.

How about if he was to score the one after?

Unless that happened...

 
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redarmi
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« Reply #90782 on: November 17, 2014, 04:19:07 AM »

I really wish this forum was closed to outsiders because I would absolutely love to write about these TD scorer bets.  If any  city analysts really understood our business then the total inability of Ladbrokes to price the NFL in running and the fact that it has been going on for 18+ months now and  nobody in their business seems aware is symptomatic of just how broken their business is now.  The absolute total mess they made of the in running betting for the Scottish Independence voting was another great example.  At one point that evening they were 1/12 no when it was 1/40 on Betfair and 2/1 the 40-45% band when it was 5/4 on Betfair.
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redarmi
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« Reply #90783 on: November 17, 2014, 04:32:22 AM »

Jonas gray at 14/1 with Ladbrokes to score next TD is way too big.  If he is that price at that will be a pretty good bet too.  Also think 13/5 Fleener anytime TD scorer is pretty good given how pats are setting up on D.

Not sure you could run much worse there, unlucky mate.

How about if he was to score the one after?

Unless that happened...

 

I guess if we were going to be really, really unlucky he could also score the one after that..........
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redarmi
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« Reply #90784 on: November 17, 2014, 04:33:07 AM »

.....but obv that would never happen....nobody runs that bad!!!!
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Marky147
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« Reply #90785 on: November 17, 2014, 04:43:20 AM »

.....but obv that would never happen....nobody runs that bad!!!!

Yeah, he only fails to score the one that we've backed him to score.
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Kmac84
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« Reply #90786 on: November 17, 2014, 05:04:12 AM »

.....but obv that would never happen....nobody runs that bad!!!!

Not on par with this but I backed overs @ 62.5 the game never really played out how I expected though.  Meh. 
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TightEnd
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« Reply #90787 on: November 17, 2014, 09:51:15 AM »

Daily Report

Profit on Month £414.29

Outstanding Bets £2986.26

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Aia1Hxq-NDNWdFk3UmlTSXMzTjRBTVNfOWRndVFsZHc&usp=drive_web#gid=32


A loss of £68 yesterday, and slightly unfortunately too

Winners

- £17.50 each way return Be Bob Boru placed at Cheltenham

- £30 Judy Murray chucked off Strictly, at last

- £25 Jeremy Hill o62.5 rushing yards. He peeled off a 62 yard run in the first quarter, bet won, and ended with 152



Losers


- £50 Federer pulling out injured ahead of the ATP World Tour final

- £25 the utterly horrendous Gemma Collins not voted to do the first public trial, purely for being placed in a different group than was eligible for voting. Unfortunate as  expect she'll get voted for every trial it is possible to vote her for from this point on such is her attitude

 Click to see full-size image.


- £25 Doging Bullets at Cheltenham

- £20 Regal Encore at Cheltenham

- £20 Croatia to beat Italy, came close drew 1-1

 Click to see full-size image.


ongoing positions

football


Newport County drew 2-2 at home to Exeter in league two. Newport are 9th, 3 points off the play offs

Mainz05 drew 0-0 away at Bayer Leverkusen in the Bundesliga. Mainz are 8th, 4 points off the top 4

X Factor


All of our bets survived for another week with the exit of Jay James from the competition

Basketball

a round up of our bets and standings two weeks into the new season

Toronto Raptors have an 8-2 record and are well clear at the top of the Eastern-Atlantic

The 7-3 Chicago Bulls lead the 5-3 Cleveland Cavaliers at the top of the Eastern-Central

The 5-3 LA Clippers are 2nd in the Western-Pacific

7-3 Dallas Mavericks are two games off the lead of the Western- South West

the 5-4 San Antonio Spurs are our single disappointment so far, bottom of the Western-South West

A dramatic night in the NFL

We have a couple of tickets at 8-1 and 14-1 on the Green Bay Packers for NFC and superbowl and for the first time in 1,331 games they stuck 50 points on their opponent in successive games

 Click to see full-size image.


During the first half of their win over the Eagles, they went Superbowl favourites on Betfair

Getting quite excited about prospects here, the Lions lost at Arizona in Green Bay's division and if Green Bay can win the division,. perhaps get some home advantage, we are definitely in business

Aaron Rodgers was brilliant once again, 341 yards and 3 touchdowns, and must be in a match for NFL Comeback player of the year with Rob Gronkowski. In fact, Rodgers may not win this because he wins NFL MVP (though Tom Brady will be favourite)

Rodgers has not thrown an interception in a home game since Dec 2012, a 13-game stretch, including playoffs. 31 touchdowns in those games



For the Eagles, now 7-3, who we also have for NFC and Superbowl, they co lead the NFC East with Dallas and have to play them twice in the last six weeks. On those games the prospects for the bet rest

yesterday was the most points the Eagles have conceded in a game since 1972 (what a shame)

LeSean McCoy again disappointed for the Eagles 88 yards and no touchdowns at Green Bay

the NFC play off picture as follows

1. ARI 9-1
2. PHI 7-3
3. DET 7-3
4. ATL 4-6
5. GB 7-3
6. DAL 7-3
---
7. SF 6-4
8. SEA 6-4

The San Diego Chargers, despite injuries to Phillip Rivers, went only a game behind the Chiefs and the Broncos, who lost at the Rams, in the NFC West. The Chargers have to play both divisional rivals here on in

Jamaal Charles, who is unlikely to win our top rusher bet because of missed games earlier in the season rushed for 159 yards in the Chiefs win yesterday

Amazingly, in the terrible NFC South Matt Ryan's Atlanta Falcons at 4-6 now lead the division. He threw for 268 yards in their win yesterday. The 2-8 Buccs might win this division!

Rookie bets. Kelvin Benjamin 109 receiving yards and his 8th touchdown of the season for Carolina, and a really difficult catch too

 Click to see full-size image.


If only he was on a better team. Still, a mjaor competitor has emerged in the Buccs receiver Mike Evans who has  458 yards and 5 TDs in the last 3 weeks and became the 1st rookie in NFL history with 7+ catches, 100+ receiving yards & a TD catch in 3 consecutive games

A vintage year for rookie receivers, though for us Brandin Cooks had a quieter day, 50 reciving yards for the disappointing Saints against a Bengals team who returned to form, restricting their hosts to 10 points in a dome

Aaron Donald did his chances no harm in the defensive category, 3 tackles and a sack of Peyton Manning in the Rams' stunning win, which will garner him a lot of voter attention i hope  

 Click to see full-size image.


How to stop Peyton manning. yesterday Broncos' starting field position: DEN 15 DEN 21 DEN 20 DEN 20 DEN 20 DEN 17 DEN 20 DEN 13 DEN 11 DEN 20 DEN 17 DEN 25 * DEN 12 *penalty.

Through the first 5 games of the season, the Rams had 1 sack. In their last 5 games, they have 18 sacks. Donald at the heart of that

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My eyes are open wide
By the way,I made it through the day
I watch the world outside
By the way, I'm leaving out today
TightEnd
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« Reply #90788 on: November 17, 2014, 10:00:51 AM »

Roger Federer has only ever withdrawn from 2 of his 1,221 career matches.

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My eyes are open wide
By the way,I made it through the day
I watch the world outside
By the way, I'm leaving out today
tikay
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« Reply #90789 on: November 17, 2014, 10:06:57 AM »


Tighty,

Am on catch up here after a few days away.

I note that various people kindly placed bets on behalf of Fred whilst I was away, & so I need to sort out who I owe money to, & how much.

Doobs

(He has paid me £17.50 over the weekend so I think we are square again).

Mark Porter

T Mar



To save me trawling though 200+ Posts (looks like we had a fun weekend!), do I owe Mark Porter & T Mar any money, & if so, how much, please?
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All details of the 2016 Vegas Staking Adventure can be found via this link - http://bit.ly/1pdQZDY (copyright Anthony James Kendall, 2016).
TightEnd
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« Reply #90790 on: November 17, 2014, 10:11:55 AM »


Tighty,

Am on catch up here after a few days away.

I note that various people kindly placed bets on behalf of Fred whilst I was away, & so I need to sort out who I owe money to, & how much.

Doobs

(He has paid me £17.50 over the weekend so I think we are square again).

Mark Porter

T Mar



To save me trawling though 200+ Posts (looks like we had a fun weekend!), do I owe Mark Porter & T Mar any money, & if so, how much, please?

Mark owes you £7.50

TMar, you owe him £20
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My eyes are open wide
By the way,I made it through the day
I watch the world outside
By the way, I'm leaving out today
tikay
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« Reply #90791 on: November 17, 2014, 10:16:27 AM »


Tighty,

Am on catch up here after a few days away.

I note that various people kindly placed bets on behalf of Fred whilst I was away, & so I need to sort out who I owe money to, & how much.

Doobs

(He has paid me £17.50 over the weekend so I think we are square again).

Mark Porter

T Mar



To save me trawling though 200+ Posts (looks like we had a fun weekend!), do I owe Mark Porter & T Mar any money, & if so, how much, please?

Mark owes you £7.50

TMar, you owe him £20

Thanks Rich.

Mark Porter

I would suggest Mark holds onto this, it may be useful if he helps us again in the future, & we'll settle up at the month's end maybe?

TMar

Can you please send me your Bank Detalis, & I'll settle you up straight away.



Looks like we had a really fun weekend, with lots of people chiming in with stuff, great work, there's life in Fred yet.
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TightEnd
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« Reply #90792 on: November 17, 2014, 11:09:55 AM »

at the risk of being excessively low brow

isn't this a massive price?

http://www.oddschecker.com/tv/im-a-celebrity/any-contestant-to-quit?dcmp=twt19

the woman was moaning about leaving on show 1 faced with the prospect of morning porridge, whats she going to be like in a pit of spiders, eating kangaroo testicles etc?

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My eyes are open wide
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TightEnd
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« Reply #90793 on: November 17, 2014, 05:30:39 PM »

Since i wrote this mornigns report we had a piece of bad NFL news

one of our rookie of the year bets Brandin Cooks broke a thumb yesterday and is out four weeks, with six games of the season remaining

this rules him out of any contention for ROTY, as it is voting season and he'll miss the key spell of the season

A occupational risk of NFLante-post stuff, the attrition rate from injuries is high
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« Reply #90794 on: November 17, 2014, 05:44:26 PM »

Monday Night football

the Steelers go to Tennessee

the Steelers move into first place in the AFC North if they win. If that happens, they'll be the 3rd different North leader in last 2 days in a hardcore/blue collar/bad weather tough division

the Titans have won 2 games all season and are an incredibly conservative team offensively

However the Steelers have done poorly this season against the "worse" teams, including losing to the Jets last time out

this is a vital game for them. Although it is difficult to see anyone beyond the Patriots, maybe Denver, Indy or KC winning the AFC we need the Steelers to win the division to have a shot for the conference bet we have on them at 14-1

The Steelers are 5 point favourites tonight
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My eyes are open wide
By the way,I made it through the day
I watch the world outside
By the way, I'm leaving out today
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