Tips for Tikay

[Mark_Porter]

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/premier-league/southampton-v-everton/winner

Wanyama and now Morgan S have picked up bookings tonight and both are now suspended for the weekend

Not sure best way to take advantage but Everton will not be 2/1+ this time tomorrow

Southampton terrible tonight as well. 13/5 365 looks worthy of a decent bet.

Bertrand got shunted back to left back as Targett was subbed at half time. No chances.

[DMorgan]

Spoils go 11/10 under 595.5

Yes, sorry. I didn't mention that as I think, like Peter Manley's flamingo shirts, Fred doesn't bother with that outfit anymore.

haha had to google Peter Manley! I've had 50 with spoils, if Fred wants some for the sweat thats fine with me

[Bazzaboy]

Arrers.

PDC World Champs start soon. How about a sweat for the occasion?

The line for 180s is 599.5 with William Tells, at 5/6 each of two. Last year, there were 603 and almost 10% of those were the 2015 SPOTY frontrunner, Sir Michael of Gerwen. That was a record by some distance and the only year that line has been topped.

I expect the punters love betting the overs, which means the line will be higher than it should be, in order to split the handle (no point losing silly money on a submarket - not suggesting for a moment some bookies are risk averse). From what I can find, the board will be the same that has been used in Sky PDC events all year and Taylor having a good run might nudge the 180 count down a bit, given he's a prominent coverer in the green bit.

Does anyone have a view on this? How about £42 for £35 on there being under 599.5 maximums?

I had a look at this market but really couldn't decide if there was value in it. What have the previous years figures been and is the trend upwards, downwards or a mixture?

Looking at the other market of most individual 180's I quite like the 100/30 on Anderson, can obviously score quite a lot, is second on the most 180's list with 58 (60 for Lewis) and if he carries forward his form from his last win then he could easily be in the final. Others I was looking at was Bunting at 20/1 and Chizzy at 11/1. Thoughts?

Don't touch the 11/1 Chisnall. To win this you need to make the final and he is an 18/1 shot to make the final.

[Tonji]

Click to see full-size image.

Speed week in skiing. Men are in Val Gardena.



Women race in Val d Isere.

[TightEnd]

Daily Report

Profit on Month £303.94

Outstanding Bets £3917.95

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Aia1Hxq-NDNWdFk3UmlTSXMzTjRBTVNfOWRndVFsZHc&usp=drive_web#gid=33

A loss of £5 yesterday with Bertrand not a goalscorer for Southampton in their loss at Sheffield United

Click to see full-size image.

and

"Bucks forward Jabari Parker suffered a left knee injury during the third quarter of last night’s game in Phoenix. He returned to Milwaukee this afternoon to undergo an MRI that revealed a torn anterior cruciate ligament (ACL) in his left knee. Parker will undergo surgery to repair the injury and is expected to miss the remainder of the 2014-15 season. "

Click to see full-size image.

so, prudently, i think we have to take those rookie of the year bets as losers for £90. which is a shame because he was looking a good thing, as the team blurb implies

"In 25 games this season, Parker averaged 12.3 points (2nd among rookies) and 5.5 rebounds (3rd) in 29.5 minutes per game (3rd) while helping the Bucks to a 13-12 record. He scored in double figures 17 times, including a career-best 23 points at Brooklyn on Nov. 19 that stands as the highest-scoring game by a Bucks teenager in franchise history. The Eastern Conference Rookie of the Month for games played in October/November, Parker began his career by posting double-doubles in two of his first three games (11 points and 10 rebounds on Oct. 31 vs. Philadelphia, and 13 points and 11 rebounds on Nov. 1 at Washington). In doing so, he became just the 14th player in the last 30 seasons to record multiple double-doubles within his first three career games, and the only teenager to accomplish the feat."

the good news of course is that we should have the rookie of the year in one of our other positions come the end of the season. People want to back Andrew Wiggins at 1.3 on Betfair, notably and we have £100 at 7-1 on bwin. so, fingers crossed for Mr Wiggins' health.

ongoing positions

Murali Vijay, our series Indian top scorer bet scored 144 of India's 311-4 on the first day of the second test in Brisbane. With the top scorer in the first test Kohli out for 19, Vijay became Indian top scorer at this stage

Vjay 293
Kohli 275
Rahane 137 (75 not out in this innings)



in football

Mainz05 drew 0-0 at Koln in the Bundesliga. Mainz are 11th, six points off the top four position required

in the Copa Del Rey one of our two bets Celta Vigo beat Las Palmas 3-1 in the second leg of their tie to advance 4-3 on aggregate

Sevilla are already through, both teams are in the last sixteen at 25-1 and 100-1 and, the rationale for the each way bets, in the other half to Real Madrid, Barelona and Atletico Madrid

Click to see full-size image.

in the NFL, a couple of interesting articles for us

http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap3000000444829/article/grading-firstround-draft-picks-defense?campaign=Twitter_atl

"Aaron Donald, Rams: (13th overall pick) He's my pick for Defensive Rookie of the Year. Grading higher than All-Pro Gerald McCoy and every other defensive tackle, per PFF, the Rams' rookie has been a run-stopping, headache-generating force since Week 1. His eight sacks -- third among all players at his position -- are more than fellow first-rounders Mack and C.J. Mosley combined. "I said that in the spring when I saw him on the practice field. I went on the record to say he has a chance to be Defensive Rookie of the Year," said Rams coach Jeff Fisher. "I haven't changed since." Grade: A+"

and on offensive rookie of the year, which we won't win

http://espn.go.com/blog/statsinfo/post/_/id/100119/offensive-rookie-of-the-year-candidates

we're down to "Honorable Mentions"

"WR Kelvin Benjamin, Panthers (third in scrimmage yards, tied for second in touchdowns among rookies)"  

in the NBA last night, we had one team in action

the Dallas Mavs beat the New York Knicks 107-87

[Chompy]

Wiggins is backable at 1.3, rather than layable, but has been done at levels you devils.

Not my bet but maybe worth looking at balancing the book up here?

[TightEnd]

Wiggins is backable at 1.3, rather than layable, but has been done at levels you devils.

Not my bet but maybe worth looking at balancing the book up here?

arbboy's bet, him to advise please

[TightEnd]

Arrers.

PDC World Champs start soon. How about a sweat for the occasion?

Click to see full-size image.

The line for 180s is 599.5 with William Tells, at 5/6 each of two. Last year, there were 603 and almost 10% of those were the 2015 SPOTY frontrunner, Sir Michael of Gerwen. That was a record by some distance and the only year that line has been topped.

I expect the punters love betting the overs, which means the line will be higher than it should be, in order to split the handle (no point losing silly money on a submarket - not suggesting for a moment some bookies are risk averse). From what I can find, the board will be the same that has been used in Sky PDC events all year and Taylor having a good run might nudge the 180 count down a bit, given he's a prominent coverer in the green bit.

Does anyone have a view on this? How about £42 for £35 on there being under 599.5 maximums?

before i place this..

a "generalists" question as someone who doesn't follow darts too closely

is the depth of the field greater than it used to be? the players more professional such that scoring averages and numbers of 180s through the field is rising over time?

or should we view 600+ last year as an outlier?

 

[TightEnd]

Arrers.

PDC World Champs start soon. How about a sweat for the occasion?

The line for 180s is 599.5 with William Tells, at 5/6 each of two. Last year, there were 603 and almost 10% of those were the 2015 SPOTY frontrunner, Sir Michael of Gerwen. That was a record by some distance and the only year that line has been topped.

I expect the punters love betting the overs, which means the line will be higher than it should be, in order to split the handle (no point losing silly money on a submarket - not suggesting for a moment some bookies are risk averse). From what I can find, the board will be the same that has been used in Sky PDC events all year and Taylor having a good run might nudge the 180 count down a bit, given he's a prominent coverer in the green bit.

Does anyone have a view on this? How about £42 for £35 on there being under 599.5 maximums?

I had a look at this market but really couldn't decide if there was value in it. What have the previous years figures been and is the trend upwards, downwards or a mixture?

Looking at the other market of most individual 180's I quite like the 100/30 on Anderson, can obviously score quite a lot, is second on the most 180's list with 58 (60 for Lewis) and if he carries forward his form from his last win then he could easily be in the final. Others I was looking at was Bunting at 20/1 and Chizzy at 11/1. Thoughts?

I like Ando at top 180s.

I recall backing him either last year or previous, and he knocked em in. Think he was knocked out in quarter but was still ahead after semis, if memory serves. If he is in better form, as I am being told, along with easier draw, should get a good run for the money.

again before i get on Anderson

http://www.oddschecker.com/darts/pdc-world-championship/most-180s

if MVG is slated to score 60 180s, how much is backing Anderson just a bet on MVG not going deep in the tournament?

is Lewis a runner here? again, only from cursory research, he hit 60 in 2011

[TightEnd]

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/premier-league/southampton-v-everton/winner

Wanyama and now Morgan S have picked up bookings tonight and both are now suspended for the weekend

Not sure best way to take advantage but Everton will not be 2/1+ this time tomorrow

i can't get the 23-10 at 365, PP or Betway

but 9/4 is

Single

20 Dec 2014 - Southampton v Everton - Match Betting
Tip It

Everton @ 9/4

Stake : £40.00
Estimated Returns : £
130.00
Transaction Reference:
O/0457483/0001151/F

[Tal]

Arrers.

PDC World Champs start soon. How about a sweat for the occasion?

Click to see full-size image.

The line for 180s is 599.5 with William Tells, at 5/6 each of two. Last year, there were 603 and almost 10% of those were the 2015 SPOTY frontrunner, Sir Michael of Gerwen. That was a record by some distance and the only year that line has been topped.

I expect the punters love betting the overs, which means the line will be higher than it should be, in order to split the handle (no point losing silly money on a submarket - not suggesting for a moment some bookies are risk averse). From what I can find, the board will be the same that has been used in Sky PDC events all year and Taylor having a good run might nudge the 180 count down a bit, given he's a prominent coverer in the green bit.

Does anyone have a view on this? How about £42 for £35 on there being under 599.5 maximums?

before i place this..

a "generalists" question as someone who doesn't follow darts too closely

is the depth of the field greater than it used to be? the players more professional such that scoring averages and numbers of 180s through the field is rising over time?

or should we view 600+ last year as an outlier?

 

I'll happily defer to Bazzaboy and the other darts Elders.

My unscientific view is the standard has improved markedly over the last ten years (more BDO to PDC converts and more comfort on stage and TV) and the new boards have had progressively thinner wires. However, looking at the numbers, there are only a handful of guys capable of 40+ 180s (MvG, Anderson, Lewis, Chisnall and maybe Wright and Wade) and they'd have to have several close matches to get there.

It looks to me a bit like betting snooker centuries in the world champs. The standard has improved but certain conditions are needed for last year's total to be eclipsed. If Taylor makes the final, I'd be surprised if the bet lost. He was out of the way in round three and 599 was only beaten by 4.

As I say, don't rely on my ice cream assessment, but that's how I see it.

[hector62]

Morning Mr T.

Could we have a discussion about laying Liverpool tonight against Bournemouth. I think too many people are scared to suggest football bets now as there always seems to be somebody who likes to write " it's in the price" or " what do we know that the bookies don't ?" and we are missing some great bets. My figures show me that I have made more from premier league football since the start of the season than any other sport.

I know Liverpool are an average premier team, and Bournemouth are top of the Championship and have scored way more goals than anyone else in the division. We can lay Liverpool at odd on it seems.

I would hope that horsey will comment as I know that he has watched Bournemouth live this season. It may be that we need to see the team sheet before laying Liverpool, as Bournemouth could decide that the league is more important but we should at least be considering this.

Anyway it is something to discuss as I would like to see Fred bet on more football matches to get back to that sense of "all in it together" on big football games. But I am not suggesting betting on all matches in anyway.

[TightEnd]

yup suggest away

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/league-cup/bournemouth-v-liverpool/winner

the bbc reported earlier

"Bournemouth boss Eddie Howe is expected to name his strongest possible team for the League Cup quarter-final tie. "

i think so far the bournemouth league cup sides this season have rested players

--

on the other hand, liverpool should really go for it, best hope of a trophy, mid table etcetc

[TheDazzler]

+1 to laying Pool.

[hector62]

I am happy to have the bet on my figures but I really would like horsey's opinion as I seem to remember him writing that Bournemouth were a " seriously good side". I can't add any more to the discussion other than I think Liverpool are too short.