Tips for Tikay

[bobby1]

Couple of the bookies that have been on Talksport in the mornings have mentioned that they're having a hard time at the moment.  Accas are doing quite well it seems.

It's deffo true but it's good work by the PR guys getting the tales of woe out there. Most weeks one or two big favs will bust all the jackpot type lines so they are really highlighting outliers at one end of the spectrum but keep quiet on the weeks it's the other end. And most weeks of the year they will be just pugging away decent to good sized winning weeks which will more than cover the jackpot weekends. On a regular week where we got 2-3 of the top ten 'spots' beaten on a Saturday afternoon the starting estimate for % profit that day would be about 20 to 25% on the Acca business.

The higher up the spot list the losers were the % would go up a little more. These days there are football matches all over the world every day so far more days of feathering the nest for those bad days than there used to be too,

[hector62]

Afternoon Mr T.

i think we should back Dodig on the game handicap in tonight's match v Nishikori. I think Nishikori will prevail but we can get a 7.5 game start and odds against. I think the key to this bet is that Nishikori's serve is weak and liable to be broken. I can see this game going to tie breaks and Dodig getting a set is certainly possible.

Suggest £20 Dodig + 7.5 games @ 11/10 with betfred.

[TightEnd]

Afternoon Mr T.

i think we should back Dodig on the game handicap in tonight's match v Nishikori. I think Nishikori will prevail but we can get a 7.5 game start and odds against. I think the key to this bet is that Nishikori's serve is weak and liable to be broken. I can see this game going to tie breaks and Dodig getting a set is certainly possible.

Suggest £20 Dodig + 7.5 games @ 11/10 with betfred.

Dodig, I v Nishikori, K
Game Handicap -7.5
   Dodig, I    11/10    7.5
Total stake   £ 20.00
Estimated return   £ 42.00
Full stake   £ 20.00
Full estimated return   £ 42.00

[TightEnd]

Tottenham v Sheff U tonight

Any love for opposing Spurs by whatever method?

Sheff  4/1 the draw, 8/1 to win

a 1st leg, a doughty cup opponent?

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/league-cup/tottenham-v-sheffield-utd/winner

--

we had some golf sweats last week

the USPGA goes to California this week for the Humana Challenge

I read that last year's winner Patrick Reed, of initially surly and ultimately ultra competitive ryder cup fame, has been round La Quinta 31 times since 08, and never not broken par

He won the first event of the season a few weeks ago

and he's double figures for this

I am only a golf generalist, but perhaps someone could opine on whether this was likely to be a decent bet or not? I am sure all the above and well known and priced in, but if you don't ask...

http://www.oddschecker.com/golf/humana-challenge/winner

[BorntoBubble]

I got sent some tips, which I am happy to pass on. Although im not 100% of the source so have been trailing them myself before I pass them onto the group.

These were the tips. PLEASE NOTE IVE ONLY HAD TIPS OFF THIS GUY FOR 3 WEEKS. Golf guys please feel free to comment... Also if you know the location of where they came from that would be great, im just on an email chain that has been passed around and I im guessing there is a source to these tips like a magazine or paper etc.

PGA
  B Horschel 1ew  40-1

P Casey          0.5ew 66-1

H English      1ew      33-1



European

R Green        0.5ew    125-1

G Coetzee     1ew       45-1

R Karlsson     0.5ew    50-1

[Tal]

The Tal v Bobby1 derby?

They can't stop 'em
The boys from Tottenham
The boys from White Hart Lane
Oh!
Spurs are on their way to Wembley*




*or we'll defend horrendously, miss a load of sitters and I'll be back to shouting at Chadli, while hiding from the inevitable stream of "bants" coming my way via myriad platforms. One of the two for sure.

[arbboy]

basketball ante-post round up

Book size: £955

Teams
      
basketball   nba championship   cavaliers   9/2   50            
basketball   NBA Championship   Cavaliers   7/2   100            £50 e/w 1/2 1,2

Currently the 5th seed in the Eastern conference, 4.5 games behind chicago in their division

After a poor run, now Lebron is back they have won their last three games

 

basketball    NBA - Atlantic Division 2014/15    Toronto Raptors   5/6   100   
basketball   NBA Championship   Toronto Raptors   66/1   20            £10 e/w 1/2 1,2

Toronto are top of the Eastern-Atlantic with a 27-14 record, but have only won three of their last ten games

10 games clear in their Division, 3rd seed in the conference
   
basketball    NBA - Southwest Division 2014/15    Dallas Mavericks   10/1   10   

The Western-South west division. the Mavs are only half a game behind the division lead, number five seeds in the conference
         
basketball    NBA - Southwest Division 2014/15    San Antonio Spurs   1.83   60   


in the same division the Spurs are 4th with a 27-16 record and currently 7th play-off seeds in the conference, 3.5 games off the division lead. Have won 8 of their last 10

basketball   NBA Championship   Chicago Bulls   8/1   40            £20 e/w 1/2 1,2

The Bulls lead in Cleveland's division, 4.5 games clear and currently 4th seeds in their conference

basketball   NBA Championship   LA Clippers   12/1   40            £20 e/w 1/2 1,2

The Clippers (28-14) are second in the Western-Pacific behind the team with the best record in the NBA currently, the Golden State Warriors (24-5). The Clippers are currently the 6th seed in the conference

basketball   NBA Northwestern division   Portland Trailblazers   10/11   55

Portland are 9.5 games clear games clear in the Western-Northwest with a 31-11 record

basketball   NCAA Basketball   Duke   10/1   5            
basketball   NCAA Basketball   Duke   10/1   5            
basketball   NCAA Basketball   Duke   10   10      

Duke are currently nationally ranked 4, with a 16-2 record. They go for their coach's 1000th win against St Johns in Madison Square garden this weekend http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/team/schedule/_/id/150/duke-blue-devils


players
         
basketball   nba season most assists    Rajan Rondo   5/2   200            £100 e/w 1/5 1,2,3 (£80 e/w sonour)

Rondo's stats have fallen dramatically since his trade to the mavericks, now fourth in the assist averages and fourth in total assists over 60 behind 3rd

http://espn.go.com/nba/statistics/player/_/stat/assists/sort/avgAssists/year/2015/seasontype/2
            
basketball   NBA MVP   A Davies   6/1   30

currently 3rd in scoring average and second in MVP voting in the NBA

http://espn.go.com/nba/statistics/player/_/stat/scoring-per-game
   
basketball   NBA - Rookie of the Year 2014/15   Nerlens Noel   10/1   40            
basketball   NBA Rookie of the year   wiggins   7.0   20   
basketball   nba rookie of the year   wiggins   7.0   80
      

Wiggins remains a short odds-on favourite for this title. He leads all rookies in scoring

http://espn.go.com/nba/statistics/player/_/stat/scoring-per-game/sort/avgPoints/position/rookies


82 games in the regular season so we are over half way

Current number one seeds in each conference are the Atlanta Hawks who have won 13 ina  row and 26 out of 28, and in the other conference the Golden State Warriors

Our main concern is Rondo, as a number of the team bets look well placed

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2336007-2015-nba-rookie-ladder-its-andrew-wiggins-and-everyone-else

Interesting article on Wiggins.  

Rondo is in a weird spot.  huge slump since moving to Dallas including a 1 assist game the other night.  I will be pretty gutted if he doesn't find a top 3 spot as most of the other players are slowing down as well.  The total assists don't matter either it's all on average assists per game providing the players make the minimum amount required to qualify for the award.

I have far too much on raptors/spurs div doubles already pre season so bankroll wise i can't really top up on the Spurs at 5/2 but i really believe they are about to explode into life now everyone is fully fit and they have 2 big home stands coming up around their annual 9 game road trip.  Given the huge injury problems they have had this year to only be 3.5 games back in the toughest division is a great effort by their reserves.  They are currently on a 4 game win streak, play the slumping bulls tomorrow night then enjoy a 6 game home stand mainly against poor sides they will be very short to beat.   They could very easily be working an 11 game win streak by the time their annual road trip starts when their arena is used for the rodeo festival in SA.

http://www.oddschecker.com/basketball/nba/southwest-division/winner

 Portland/Raptors are weighed in for their division already.  Davies isn't going to win the MVP even though he has had a great season.  That bet is dead barring miracles.  He is currently injured as well and his team hasn't won enough games to put him in contention.  Similar to the Spurs the Cavs are finding some form and their recent trades could really strengthen their team.  Player by player their roster is very deep now if all the egos can work together.  Being in the East gives them the time to gel without really affecting their chances long term.  I really feel Atlanta and Golden State are currently both far too short for the Championship.  You just can't keep playing ahead of ev forever like they seem to be doing, esp Atlanta.

[bobby1]

The Tal v Bobby1 derby?

They can't stop 'em
The boys from Tottenham
The boys from White Hart Lane
Oh!
Spurs are on their way to Wembley*




*or we'll defend horrendously, miss a load of sitters and I'll be back to shouting at Chadli, while hiding from the inevitable stream of "bants" coming my way via myriad platforms. One of the two for sure.

Pretty sure we will be starting 4-4-1-1 which will be more of a 4-5-1 and then go for the usual try not to lose for 70 mins and then see how it looks. I bet Spurs under 0.5 first half goals simply coz the firm offering were 29/20 no Spurs first half goal in one market but 8/5 under 0.5 Spurs first half goals in a different market. Schoolboy error that.

GL Tal

(I'm guessing you will take a draw?)

[TightEnd]

i was going to double up on the Spurs (£60) but we were restricted as below

5/2
San Antonio Spurs
2014/15 NBA Southwest Division
Singles - Divisional Betting
1 line @ £20.00 per line
Total Stake £20.00
Potential Return £70.00
Receipt No: O/142640973/0000837

[Tal]

The Tal v Bobby1 derby?

They can't stop 'em
The boys from Tottenham
The boys from White Hart Lane
Oh!
Spurs are on their way to Wembley*




*or we'll defend horrendously, miss a load of sitters and I'll be back to shouting at Chadli, while hiding from the inevitable stream of "bants" coming my way via myriad platforms. One of the two for sure.

Pretty sure we will be starting 4-4-1-1 which will be more of a 4-5-1 and then go for the usual try not to lose for 70 mins and then see how it looks. I bet Spurs under 0.5 first half goals simply coz the firm offering were 29/20 no Spurs first half goal in one market but 8/5 under 0.5 Spurs first half goals in a different market. Schoolboy error that.

GL Tal

(I'm guessing you will take a draw?)

A draw? Is your source Wikipedia?

http://metro.co.uk/2015/01/21/tottenham-boss-mauricio-pochettino-slaps-down-journalist-for-using-wikipedia-5030889/

[Horneris]

Afternoon Mr T.

i think we should back Dodig on the game handicap in tonight's match v Nishikori. I think Nishikori will prevail but we can get a 7.5 game start and odds against. I think the key to this bet is that Nishikori's serve is weak and liable to be broken. I can see this game going to tie breaks and Dodig getting a set is certainly possible.

Suggest £20 Dodig + 7.5 games @ 11/10 with betfred.

Dodig, I v Nishikori, K
Game Handicap -7.5
   Dodig, I    11/10    7.5
Total stake   £ 20.00
Estimated return   £ 42.00
Full stake   £ 20.00
Full estimated return   £ 42.00

Did you look into this one properly Hector? The first thing to check for is a players well being. At the end of his last match Dodig had the trainer out and took a timeout serving for the match. Very risky proposition imo, especially with his injury last season.

[Graham C]

Tottenham v Sheff U tonight

Any love for opposing Spurs by whatever method?

Always love for that, does it even matter then odds?

[Tal]

Stronger lineup than expected:.

Vorm
walker dier veronghen Davies
Townsend stambouli mason eriksen
Kane Adebayor

[redsimon]

John Carver is the new favourite for the Newcastle manager's job following a gamble

"There's been a significant move in the next Newcastle manager market this morning with John Carver replacing Reme Garde as the favourite.

Carver may not have managed a win during his four-game spell in caretaker charge yet but that hasn't put punters off backing him as short as evens which is the price Sky Bet and BetVictor are now at.

Sky Bet report some "chunky bets for the North East" with the money having begun to come late last night.

The firm's rules mean they will pay out if he manages the side for 10 competitive games which may explain why they are keen to keep him onside.

Carver is 5/2 at Unibet and 888sport.

Former Lyon boss Garde is out to 3/1 with bet365, Ladbrokes and bwin.

Derby manager Steve McClaren (4/1) and Michael Laudrup (6/1) are also at single-figure prices but ex-Spurs chief Tim Sherwood, who was among the early frontrunners, is out to a best price of 18/1."

My massive £3.53 @ 16/1 obviously affected the market

[Karabiner]

Tottenham v Sheff U tonight

Any love for opposing Spurs by whatever method?

Always love for that, does it even matter then odds?

They seem to be opposing themselves looking at their choice of captain.