Tips for Tikay

[swinebag22]

Not so keen to oppose Dortmund in Europe.

They basically seem to have been found out in Germany but they qualified pretty comfortably from their CL group. Apart from Monaco they are the longest of the group winners to qualify for the quarters and that seems about right.

In Germany firms still seem to be pricing them up as a top 4 club. They have just failed to score at home against a team, who are considered average at best away from home that have been reduced to 10 men. I know this is only 1 result but they have been like this all season.

It reminds a bit like when Man City got relegated from D1 in 1998. They started the season as promotion favourites and were odds on faves for most games all the way down to . They cost me so many accas. I remember thinking "surely we'll beat (insert one of) bury/huddersfield/stoke at home this week"

Not sure how bad Freiburg are. They have drawn a pile of games and are a small club. Would still fancy them to get something from this game. Initial thoughts are backing them +0.75 on the Asian Handicap (2.1ish at the moment)

The 1.65 best price on the away win just seems staggeringly wrong and anything that opposes Dortmund has to be value....doesn't it?

[arbboy]

Not so keen to oppose Dortmund in Europe.

They basically seem to have been found out in Germany but they qualified pretty comfortably from their CL group. Apart from Monaco they are the longest of the group winners to qualify for the quarters and that seems about right.

In Germany firms still seem to be pricing them up as a top 4 club. They have just failed to score at home against a team, who are considered average at best away from home that have been reduced to 10 men. I know this is only 1 result but they have been like this all season.

It reminds a bit like when Man City got relegated from D1 in 1998. They started the season as promotion favourites and were odds on faves for most games all the way down to . They cost me so many accas. I remember thinking "surely we'll beat (insert one of) bury/huddersfield/stoke at home this week"

Not sure how bad Freiburg are. They have drawn a pile of games and are a small club. Would still fancy them to get something from this game. Initial thoughts are backing them +0.75 on the Asian Handicap (2.1ish at the moment)

The 1.65 best price on the away win just seems staggeringly wrong and anything that opposes Dortmund has to be value....doesn't it?

Love Stoke being grouped with bury and Huddersfield when talking about busting Man City accas. We also bust a fair few this year drilling them in the epl.

[sonour]

Ex probably had more missed winners than anyone in fred history

Superb well done exo

I don't miss your bets exstream. You're autobet for me. Thank you.

[BorntoBubble]

Ex probably had more missed winners than anyone in fred history

Superb well done exo

I don't miss your bets exstream. You're autobet for me. Thank you.

+1

[sonour]

Mr Bandit is walking the streets , still trying to find their shop.

Well I will admit to sending him out once looking for Bet365 shops. Gave him a big, long list. I think they'd all been sold to Coral 5 years earlier.

[arbboy]

Mr Bandit is walking the streets , still trying to find their shop.

Well I will admit to sending him out once looking for Bet365 shops. Gave him a big, long list. I think they'd all been sold to Coral 5 years earlier.

make it 9/10 years.  ty for coming to my bday at monmore.  Was a massive pleasure having you and hubby 1 there.

[sonour]

Mr Bandit is walking the streets , still trying to find their shop.

Well I will admit to sending him out once looking for Bet365 shops. Gave him a big, long list. I think they'd all been sold to Coral 5 years earlier.

make it 9/10 years.  ty for coming to my bday at monmore.  Was a massive pleasure having you and hubby 1 there.

Thanks for inviting us, we enjoyed it. I especially enjoyed the 1,2 you gave me in the first before you arrived.

[TightEnd]

Daily Report

Profit on Month £335.84

Outstanding Bets £3720.97

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Aia1Hxq-NDNWdFk3UmlTSXMzTjRBTVNfOWRndVFsZHc&usp=drive_web#gid=19

A loss of £18 yesterday

Both horses in the Chelmsford race were placed for a profit of £32

The Peterborough dog was i gather knocked over at the first bend, and finished 5th, loss of £50

ongoing positions

In Montpellier Janowicz beat Paire in 3 sets to advance to the third round

Click to see full-size image.

In the Jump Steve O found himself in the jump off, where he jumped further than Stacey Solomon to survive for another night

Click to see full-size image.

In the NBA last night 4 of our teams played, 3 lost

the sole winners were the San Antonio Spurs who beat Orlando 110-103

Click to see full-size image.

golden state won again, beating Dallas Mavs 128-114

Houston beat the Chicago Bulls 101-90

Brooklyn beat the Tronto Raptors 109-93

this starts tonight, we're looking for draws again



this starts tomorrow night

Click to see full-size image.

this is always good fun

Click to see full-size image.

After Liverpool's late win last night, the FA Cup market looks like

[Omm]

If that's the biggest guy in the Scottish team then they are in big trouble.

[TightEnd]

If that's the biggest guy in the Scottish team then they are in big trouble.

That's greig Laidlaw, the captain, and our kicker bet

A scrum half.

All the other captains are forwards

[DungBeetle]

I think there might be a rick on a cricket world cup spread market.  Not sure if there is a fixed odds equivilant.

Without looking, how many runs do you think will be scored over 400 in a single innings during the tournament.  EG if a team scores 420, and then in another game another team gets 410 then total runs over 400 = 20+1 = 30

Some stats to help your estimate.

Scores over 400 have happened 12 times in ODI history.  Highest was 443.   8 of the 12 occasions was 420 or under.

Shoot!

[DungBeetle]

Oh - and I think a score over 400 has never happened on an Australian pitch.

[TightEnd]

I think there might be a rick on a cricket world cup spread market.  Not sure if there is a fixed odds equivilant.

Without looking, how many runs do you think will be scored over 400 in a single innings during the tournament.  EG if a team scores 420, and then in another game another team gets 410 then total runs over 400 = 20+1 = 30

Some stats to help your estimate.

Scores over 400 have happened 12 times in ODI history.  Highest was 443.   8 of the 12 occasions was 420 or under.

Shoot!

PP have the highest team score at over/under 415

upside: since the new regulations came in two years ago there have been  2 x ODI 200's, and the fastest 100 has been broken twice ( all since 2 new balls and only 4 fielders out rule came in )

downside: the ICC is aware of this and is worried that it has moved the balance too far from ball to bat and announced this week that at all WC matches the boundaries would be 90 metres (in some ODI games boundaries can be 55-70 metres, smaller in T20). Australian, though not NZ so much, grounds are big so this is possible

I was going to have a big bet (for me) on over 24.5 centuries at 5/6 (24 in 2011, 19 in 2007,2003) because the quote did not reflect at all the new regulations they asre playing under until they announced this. it still might come in but its not going to be quite the run fest it was

my WC preview is out this week, and sub-market write up to follow (free to read)

[exstream]

Another where all the information is probably already there but Groningen away to Heracles looks a good bet.
Heracles have lost 14/20 games in the league this season, have lost their last 6. They have also lost their last 6 games to Groningen, with them losing by 2 goals or more the last 5. Is there a point where records in football like that play on the mind of the losing team?

Based on last 6 games, minus 1 handicap worth a bet @ 5.7?
Draw no bet @ evens
Outright win @ 2.76

Unless anyone feels otherwise, £20 outright win, £10 handicap?

[TightEnd]

Another where all the information is probably already there but Groningen away to Heracles looks a good bet.
Heracles have lost 14/20 games in the league this season, have lost their last 6. They have also lost their last 6 games to Groningen, with them losing by 2 goals or more the last 5. Is there a point where records in football like that play on the mind of the losing team?

Based on last 6 games, minus 1 handicap worth a bet @ 5.7?
Draw no bet @ evens
Outright win @ 2.76

Unless anyone feels otherwise, £20 outright win, £10 handicap?

i better not miss these in a welter of mixed views that put me off!

Groningen -1 5.72 £10.00 £47.19
Ref: 45972260271 Matched: 16:08 05-Feb-15

Groningen 2.74 £20.00 £34.80
Ref: 45972286545 Submitted: 16:09 05-Feb-15


by the way, do you watch a lot of European football, say the dutch league? I am just thinking out loud that if i can see on oddschecker that heracles have lost their last six and with a few clicks can get up more advanced stats then how is the price not efficient?

i suppose the history of football betting (profitable) on here is that it does not matter, and examples like Augsberg last night, there are different ways of identifiying value than an intricate knowledge gained by watching the teams concerned and knowing their x's and o's.

a bit of late afternoon navel gazing for you