Tips for Tikay

[JohnCharver]

surely champagne fever goes off at a bigger price when money pours on sacre and grugy or am i wrong

probably although sire de grugy has never really been a horse bettors got behind, he went off a ridiculous price (11/4) last year, after utterly dominating the year and against the worst field in Ive ever seen. Also have the mullins factor, if hes on a run tomorrow again.

[Karabiner]

I'm pretty sure the layers will try and get the top two in the Champion 'Chase.

I'm holding fire as I'm in the SDG camp but waiting/hoping for a 4/1 offer.

[Doobs]

I do think Lewis Hamilton at 11/10 is a very good bet in the Aussie Grand Prix.

He was 11-5 vs Rosberg last year, and was even more dominant if you discount the races where either had no chance.  I'd also suggest that Lewis seemed more unlucky to me too.

I don't accept the Nicole factor, and think he won last year because he was the best driver in the best car.  He didn't win the year before as his car didn't have the race pace and not because he was lonely and heartbroken.

If we just assume last year continues then 11/10 looks good, but if anything the cars look more dominant this year and it does look a 2 horse race for Australia.  I don't think it is unreasonable to suggest Lewis should win twice as many races as Nico, and if we assume that 10% of the time neither win, I'd put the prices as 4/6 Hamilton, 9/4 Rosberg, 9/1 any other.  So I don't think the Rosberg price is far wrong, but Hamilton seems a great bet at 11/10.  He was nothing like that price to win races at the end of last season.

Suggest £50 at 11/10 Lewis Hamilton Australian Grand Prix.

[tikay]

Message for Tighty:

Incoming e-Mail from Wm Hill......

Dear  Tony,

 After a fantastic first day's racing at the Cheltenham Festival, we thought we'd send you a brief reminder that you still have a free bet* in your account!

If you're looking to use your free bet tomorrow, from 8:30am we're going 4/1 Sprinter Saacre to win tomorrow's Queen Mother Champion Chase at 3:20 and we're paying 5 places on the Coral Cup at 2:40pm.

[tikay]

...and another.

This one from BMU. This may not have been Fred-induced, I have no idea - I had some off-thread bets today, at least one of which was with BMU. Up to you what you do with it.



Your Bonus is Waiting For You



Thanks for taking part in our Cheltenham bonus offer today. As promised, we’ve now credited your account with a bonus bet (expires tomorrow at midnight) and bonus spins (valid for 3 days).

 You can use the bet on any sporting event, while the spins are valid on Starburst, South Park and Gonzo’s Quest. Remember, further bonuses are available this week!
 

[aaron1867]

Tough card tomorrow that's for sure, but the gold cup looks to be an absolute cracker tomorrow, really looking forward to it!

Hate to say if, but wouldn't back SS with someone else's money

I'm guessing that you mean the QM Aaron.

I'm quite firmly in the SDG camp but looking forward to it immensely.

Especially now that I have Fred onside

Ha, yes - not sure why I said gold cup

I think it would be easier (for me) to pick a horse in the national than this, some fantastic horses. I think reading comments on here I might go with SDG too. Very tough.

[Doobs]

...and another.

This one from BMU. This may not have been Fred-induced, I have no idea - I had some off-thread bets today, at least one of which was with BMU. Up to you what you do with it.



Your Bonus is Waiting For You



Thanks for taking part in our Cheltenham bonus offer today. As promised, we’ve now credited your account with a bonus bet (expires tomorrow at midnight) and bonus spins (valid for 3 days).

 You can use the bet on any sporting event, while the spins are valid on Starburst, South Park and Gonzo’s Quest. Remember, further bonuses are available this week!
 

Both Hills and Victor are biggest on Pylonthepressure in the last at 14-1.  Suggest you at least get rid of the Victor free bet there as it expires first.

Coral are 9/2 Sprinter Sacre from 8.30

[TightEnd]

this is a free bet

 17:15 PYLONTHEPRESSURE (Horse Racing Outright - Race) Odds: 14/1 Stake: 19.00 Possible Return:  266.00


also last night

10/03/2015 GBP 15.00 Each Way Single: 17 BARADARI @ 18/1
EVENT    SELECTION    PRICE    E/W TERMS    RESULT    STATUS
14:40 Cheltenham Horse Racing Outright - Race    BARADARI    18/1    EW 1/4 1,2,3,4,5    None    Unsettled
Betid 45442972800 Time: 22:57 Bet Type: Single Stake: £ 30.00

10/03/2015 GBP 15.00 Each Way Single: 2 BEAST OF BURDEN @ 12/1
EVENT    SELECTION    PRICE    E/W TERMS    RESULT    STATUS
13:30 Cheltenham Horse Racing Outright - Race    BEAST OF BURDEN    12/1    EW 1/4 1,2,3    None    Unsettled
Betid 45442917600 Time: 22:55 Bet Type: Single Stake: £ 30.00

10 Mar 15 / 22:06    Single (EW)    1         1:30 Cheltenham  –  Win    Outlander @ Guaranteed Price (4/1)    –    £50.00    O/0457483/0001222/F

Outlander via mobile, money back as free bet if second

[TightEnd]

are there any sire de grugy offers around please?

4/1+ we should probably do that, or face the wrath of the wenger cuckoo clock

http://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing/cheltenham/15:20/winner

[aaron1867]

...and another.

This one from BMU. This may not have been Fred-induced, I have no idea - I had some off-thread bets today, at least one of which was with BMU. Up to you what you do with it.



Your Bonus is Waiting For You



Thanks for taking part in our Cheltenham bonus offer today. As promised, we’ve now credited your account with a bonus bet (expires tomorrow at midnight) and bonus spins (valid for 3 days).

 You can use the bet on any sporting event, while the spins are valid on Starburst, South Park and Gonzo’s Quest. Remember, further bonuses are available this week!
 

Both Hills and Victor are biggest on Pylonthepressure in the last at 14-1.  Suggest you at least get rid of the Victor free bet there as it expires first.

Coral are 9/2 Sprinter Sacre from 8.30

Reasoning?

[TightEnd]

The RSA is another nice race.  9 runners of which 3 are big prices, so you effectively have 6 fighting for 3 places, so you should get a bit of value backing any of the top 6 each way at best prices.  I have just backed The Young Master each way with Vic at 11/2.  That means I get to beat both the place and the win prices by quite a lot.  Where is tighty?  For you stats nuts, his sire is a sprinter, as his damn, this race is over 3 miles.  He has also raced on the all weather at Kempton, Wolverhampton, Southwell and Lingfield.  All in all, hard to resist I think you'll agree.

I am also hillsmobiling Don Poli.  I know this race has a bad record for fancied horses, but I can't help myself.

http://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing/cheltenham/14:05/winner

5/1 best the young master

is this a recommendation?

[aaron1867]

They've just mention on c4 all wins for YM have been on much softer ground

[TightEnd]

To all

A £50 Totesport free bet

I still can't tell what the expiry is on this, so intend to use it today on something at a working price reasonably close to top and betfair


not quite first come first served but I am listening for an idea....

[TightEnd]

The County looks a bit of a nightmare, going to have to quit.  I really want to back Aux Ptits Soins, but can't get on at 9/1 and get 5 places, so will just have to look in the morning.

The Champion Chase is much nicer.  With the issues around Sire De Grugy and Sprinter Sacre, I think we should definitely back Champagne  Fever each way given how valuable the place part is.  He also has a v good Cheltenham record.  Suggest we up the stakes and go £40 each way with Hills mobile (5/1 best price).

I might also try and get 10/1 Mr Mole each way in the morning (can only get PP right now)

double check on this please

we are on sprinter s

could well be on sire d before too long

champagne fever as well?

[Doobs]

The RSA is another nice race.  9 runners of which 3 are big prices, so you effectively have 6 fighting for 3 places, so you should get a bit of value backing any of the top 6 each way at best prices.  I have just backed The Young Master each way with Vic at 11/2.  That means I get to beat both the place and the win prices by quite a lot.  Where is tighty?  For you stats nuts, his sire is a sprinter, as his damn, this race is over 3 miles.  He has also raced on the all weather at Kempton, Wolverhampton, Southwell and Lingfield.  All in all, hard to resist I think you'll agree.

I am also hillsmobiling Don Poli.  I know this race has a bad record for fancied horses, but I can't help myself.

http://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing/cheltenham/14:05/winner

5/1 best the young master

is this a recommendation?

The place terms are very good so think it must be good.  11/2 was exceptional.  He is really solid and keeps winning whatever he raced on.  15 e/w is fine