Tips for Tikay

[Doobs]

Couple of bet suggestions for you:

1) Nelson Piquet Jr. to win the 2015 Formula E Championship. Not had the best results so far (8th, DNF, 2nd, 3rd, 5th), but he seems more and more comfortable every time he gets in the car (I guess that's the case for everyone, but he seems to be settling faster than other drivers). He's getting quicker and quicker too! Price is currently 10/1 which is a value spot IMO. Recommend £25.

http://www.oddschecker.com/motorsport/formula-e/drivers-championship

2) Now, this is a ridiculous long shot. Almost certainly not going to happen, but Lewis Hamilton to win every race in 2015 at 500/1 with Betway is an interesting spot. Like I say, the chances of this happening are insanely low. However, I would say that this does represent value. If you ran the season 500 times, this probably would happen once. This is not so much a suggestion, but I'm more drawing it to the attention of those who like long shots - doesn't get much longer than this! I stuck £1 on - can't go wrong with a pound  

http://www.oddschecker.com/motorsport/formula-one/specials

Is 8/15 to win the Malaysian Grand Prix value?  It really has to be if 500/1 to win the remaining 18 Grand Prix'is value.

This is quite a good illustration of what Arbboy bangs on about.  500/1 is equivalent to probability (lewis wins) = 0.71.  8/15 is the equivalent of probability (lewis wins) = 0.65.  I am not sure either is value though.  It feels like you are betting on Rosberg injury fairly quickly and replaced by someone worse to make the 500/1 value.  FWIW I put up .6 Lewis, .3 Rosberg and .1 anyone else last week, and the odds are bang on that with a margin for the next grand prix.  

Guess we aren't going to see 11/10 again for a while.  Might have to stick to formula E, group betting and formula 1 vs rally driver challenges from now on.  

[JoeBeevers]

Peter, taking into account that he has won 1 race already, if you backed him to go unbeaten you are effectively backing him in a massive accumulator and ecah individual race you are taking approx 2/5.

I'll lay you 600/1 ;-)

[Tal]

Got to be worth a quid, Peter!

[JoeBeevers]

Just realised it is with Betway. Just imagine if LH wins 19/19 Grands Prix and Germany doesn't take place and there is nothing subbed in.

The bet is that Hamilton wins all 20 Grand Prixs. What price you get paid? 500/1? ;-)

[tikay]

Love it when you guys explain odds and probability in such simple terms.

I would have no idea whether 500/1 was value or not, other than gut instinct.

Then we see that it equates to 2/5 per race, and he is 8/15 to win the next.

Boom, I understand.

[JoeBeevers]

Formula 1: Hockenheim boss rules out 2015 German Grand Prix

http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/formula1/31930827

[Peter-27]

Couple of bet suggestions for you:

1) Nelson Piquet Jr. to win the 2015 Formula E Championship. Not had the best results so far (8th, DNF, 2nd, 3rd, 5th), but he seems more and more comfortable every time he gets in the car (I guess that's the case for everyone, but he seems to be settling faster than other drivers). He's getting quicker and quicker too! Price is currently 10/1 which is a value spot IMO. Recommend £25.

http://www.oddschecker.com/motorsport/formula-e/drivers-championship

2) Now, this is a ridiculous long shot. Almost certainly not going to happen, but Lewis Hamilton to win every race in 2015 at 500/1 with Betway is an interesting spot. Like I say, the chances of this happening are insanely low. However, I would say that this does represent value. If you ran the season 500 times, this probably would happen once. This is not so much a suggestion, but I'm more drawing it to the attention of those who like long shots - doesn't get much longer than this! I stuck £1 on - can't go wrong with a pound  

http://www.oddschecker.com/motorsport/formula-one/specials

Lewis can't win all of them, save the £1.

Any interest in him breaking the record of 13 wins in a season at 4-1 though?

None, 4/1 is nowhere near high enough.

I agree with all of you regarding the odds - thought of the same thing myself, however, if it did happen, I would be so ****ing annoyed for having not bet on it  Plus, it's only £1 haha.

Formula E bet is a genuine suggestion for TFT though

[arbboy]

If he wins the first 12 races though he is going to be going off 1/4 or 1/5 for the last few races because something major has happened elsewhere usually for him to have even won 12 races in a row.  I would have a tickle on the 500/1 for tiny stakes if you like it!

[exstream]

Looks like Dortmund out of Champs League!

[tikay]

What would the price per race equate to if we were interested in him @ 4/1 winning 13 of the remaining 18? (Assuming Germany does not happen).

[exstream]

Poor Aguero even missing penalties now

[Marky147]

Poor Aguero even missing penalties now

Not as quickly as I anticipated

[hector62]

Berdych is through to the 1/4 finals after beating Rosol 2 sets to 1.

Next on court Nadal plays Simon.

[tikay]

Berdych is through to the 1/4 finals after beating Rosol 2 sets to 1.

Next on court Nadal plays Simon.

Hector knows his tennis.

[rinswun]

After the last NHL debacle of the Ottawa Senators bet last season, I'd like to take another trip to the well and recommend a small bet on the Minnesota Wild to win the Stanley Cup. I believe they have been underrated at Coral who currently go 25/1 (they as short as 12/1 in places).

The Wild had a tepid start to the season, going 18-24 to start until January 15th, at which point they made a trade to acquire a goalie by the name of Devan Dubnyk. Dubnyk was a former 1st round pick from the 2004 draft who had spent his early career getting plenty of practise on poor teams. However, the trade to the Mid-West seems to have lit a spark in him and he has played every contest since his trade - compiling a 25-5-1 record with a .939 save percentage - generally anything exceeding .930 is considered elite.The Wild have won 8 straight on the road and have not conceded 3 goals in a road game since Dubnyk's arrival. Since his arrival, they have moved from 13th in the conference to 7th and the train shows no sign of stopping. They currently hold the first wildcard spot but are 9 points clear of the chasing pack with 12 games of the reg season remaining.

Stanley Cups are won with solid defensive teams who play hard-nosed hockey and take their chances. That is exactly the Wild's MO. I feel that they are still being priced on their early season form and the 25/1 is an under-estimation of their true chances. I think over 7 games I would only have them as small dogs against two teams - the St Louis Blues and New York Rangers.

Rec £10 at 25/1 with Coral