Tips for Tikay

[Larry David]

Hello Mr Rinswun,do you know the wild were 66/1 last week when as low as 12/1 with one firm?  Too tempting to leave alone.

Although I don't agree with which teams they will/won't be favs against in a best of 7 series that is irrelevant.  My presence here hasn't went down well but I would advise strongly against TFT taking this bet, shocking value with the line you are taking with this price.  Just trying to help with getting the best value for your money if you are wanting to take Minnesota Wild(btw, they are a strong team especially at home,great atmosphere,watched them play Chicago a few years ago).

[Doobs]

Hello Mr Rinswun,do you know the wild were 66/1 last week when as low as 12/1 with one firm?  Too tempting to leave alone.

Although I don't agree with which teams they will/won't be favs against in a best of 7 series that is irrelevant.  My presence here hasn't went down well but I would advise strongly against TFT taking this bet, shocking value with the line you are taking with this price.  Just trying to help with getting the best value for your money if you are wanting to take Minnesota Wild(btw, they are a strong team especially at home,great atmosphere,watched them play Chicago a few years ago).

Why are they shocking value? 

I don't follow the sport but they should be shorter than last week if they win 3 from 4?  Not that it matters much as last week has gone. 

We should probably think about e/w here.  I assume it is quite likely we are the dog in the final?

[Larry David]

Berdych is through to the 1/4 finals after beating Rosol 2 sets to 1.

Next on court Nadal plays Simon.

Hector knows his tennis.

The problem with this tournament is the cream of the ATP want to win this title and if you look at the history you will find Ivan Ljubucic sandwiched between the greatest players in the history of tennis. You won't go broke backing hectors selections at big prices.  Berdych in  1/4 finals so good luck, you really needed a few top seeds to go out as Bercych is still a 30/1+ shot with likely opponents,federer,nadal and djokovic in final if it pans out that way,it may not though.

[Larry David]

Hello Mr Rinswun,do you know the wild were 66/1 last week when as low as 12/1 with one firm?  Too tempting to leave alone.

Although I don't agree with which teams they will/won't be favs against in a best of 7 series that is irrelevant.  My presence here hasn't went down well but I would advise strongly against TFT taking this bet, shocking value with the line you are taking with this price.  Just trying to help with getting the best value for your money if you are wanting to take Minnesota Wild(btw, they are a strong team especially at home,great atmosphere,watched them play Chicago a few years ago).

Why are they shocking value?  

I don't follow the sport but they should be shorter than last week if they win 3 from 4?  Not that it matters much as last week has gone.  

We should probably think about e/w here.  I assume it is quite likely we are the dog in the final?

You can forget about teams on winning runs,peaks and troughs happen right through the season and you can't predict when they will come along

This guy isn't talking nonsense,obviously knows the sport so I'm not disrespecting him.  They have a great shot at winning it but so do 10 other teams.  If you want to take his bet you have to take the conference price,simple as that.  Are either bets value?? Who knows but the only play is conference price and then place potential winnings in the stanley cup final,at worst you then have 17.0x1.8.  Pick em at best but 99.9% certain they will be Evs or bigger in a final.

[rinswun]

I actually have a speculate slip at 66/1 from the end of February myself Larry. However, at that time they were still on the outside looking in at the playoff picture so I wanted to wait until I was more confident of them definitely securing playoff hockey. In the three weeks that have followed, I have only been more impressed with them and my feeling has gone from speculative winners to very live chances. I believe 16/1 is probably a fairer representation of their chances so getting 25s is fine for a value perspective. I've just gone back in myself despite already holding 66/1. Why wouldn't I if I feel the price is wrong?

[Tal]

You picked your top five TfT posters yet, Larry?

[Larry David]

The price held long enough so I jumped on board,you were on a few weeks before I was.  Just saying if you think the 25/1 price is too big you should have taken the alternative route(conference winners) which makes the 25/1 bet look stingy in comparison.  Just looking for a good run from them as I only need a few more teams at bigger odds and my book on this looks water tight. Good luck.

[Marky147]

You picked your top five TfT posters yet, Larry?

I don't think he rates enough of them to make a top 5

[Larry David]

You picked your top five TfT posters yet, Larry?

Is this a new thread or just on this thread?

No is the answer but you are less aggressive than most so you probably on the list.

[rinswun]

Hello Mr Rinswun,do you know the wild were 66/1 last week when as low as 12/1 with one firm?  Too tempting to leave alone.

Although I don't agree with which teams they will/won't be favs against in a best of 7 series that is irrelevant.  My presence here hasn't went down well but I would advise strongly against TFT taking this bet, shocking value with the line you are taking with this price.  Just trying to help with getting the best value for your money if you are wanting to take Minnesota Wild(btw, they are a strong team especially at home,great atmosphere,watched them play Chicago a few years ago).

Why are they shocking value?  

I don't follow the sport but they should be shorter than last week if they win 3 from 4?  Not that it matters much as last week has gone.  

We should probably think about e/w here.  I assume it is quite likely we are the dog in the final?

You can forget about teams on winning runs,peaks and troughs happen right through the season and you can't predict when they will come along

This guy isn't talking nonsense,obviously knows the sport so I'm not disrespecting him.  They have a great shot at winning it but so do 10 other teams.  If you want to take his bet you have to take the conference price,simple as that.  Are either bets value?? Who knows but the only play is conference price and then place potential winnings in the stanley cup final,at worst you then have 17.0x1.8.  Pick em at best but 99.9% certain they will be Evs or bigger in a final.

Appreciate your viewpoint but I disagree. In 2012 the Kings were the 8th Seeds in the West, made the finals and were 4/6 favourites. Hockey more than any other sport I have come across is a game were building a team for the playoffs is all important. I would happy wager even money that whichever team wins the West will be favourite for the finals. No doubt in my mind that that'll be the case.

[Larry David]

You picked your top five TfT posters yet, Larry?

I don't think he rates enough of them to make a top 5

Correct  

[Larry David]

Yes I know they were.  You can't disagree with the 16/1 being the far superior option surely?

Rangers v Wild, rangers will be favs. Penguins or Montreal will also be favs

I will bet any figure you like that if we see a penguins v wild finals that penguins start favs, impossible for wild to start fav.

[Larry David]

Good luck with the bet.  Doubt we will ever find out as they have a tough job. 

[rinswun]

It's obv situational dependent but if the Wild played the ailing Penguins tomorrow with Malkin and Hornqvist out, I'd make the favourites and would be hoovering any odds against.

[TightEnd]

Trying to keep this thead clear of all the nonsense. Back in the morning. Goodnight.