Tips for Tikay

[tikay]

hello tony,

i had planned on just observing the forum for a while but ending up wading in the deep end during a dull moment in the cricket, apologies!

joined the forum due to a piss-poor cheltenham, needed to revamp my betting from top to bottom so asked a punter friend of mine the name of a good forum and he sent me this way. i am very much small time compared to some of the rest of you guys i would imagine, but hopefully i'll have something useful to contribute at some stages.

football team - i support my hometown team newcastle united, keep a keen eye on my dads team leyton orient

favourite sport is cricket, to begin with because it my the sport i was best at growing up, now due to subtle complexities that the 3 formats all bring to the same sport. the whole individual whilst being a team sport interests me from a psychological point of view also (did my degree in sports pyschology)

arsene wenger, the classic marmite question these days! during the parts of the year where the transfer window i shut i love wenger and the ethos he has instilled into arsenal and the revolution he introduced to arsenal, to begin with thrugh gritted teeth as the toon were challenging at the stage. during the transfer window i am constantly confused by his stubbornness to buy the obvious players he needs, keeper, commanding centre half, beast of a dmc etc so 8 months of the year he is a 10/10, 4 months he is 0/10 so he averages out at 6.66 / 10

i normally bet on cricket and cycling, horse racing festivals, being a nit in nlh and lay the toon after xmas every game (that last one is printing money)

i used to work as a poker dealer, now i work in a bookies (try not to hold it against me)

i'd have to be a trains man on that one

i am younger than you are

let me know if the "concrete, trains or hydraulic backhoe excavators?" chat up line works, i'll have to use it if so :-)

Great reply, thank you.

I will try & reply later today, got some work to do first.

[TightEnd]

Daily Report

Loss on Month £105.48

Outstanding Bets £4284.14

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Aia1Hxq-NDNWdFk3UmlTSXMzTjRBTVNfOWRndVFsZHc&usp=drive_web#gid=22

A loss of £20 yesterday

Simon lost to Nadal at ATP Indian Wells in straight sets -£10

Hard working families? not mentioned int eh budget -£10

ongoing positions

Berdych has reached the quarters of Indian Wells. His next opponent is where it gets tough. Federer

Click to see full-size image.

in the nba last night

the cavs won their 17th game in a row at home, beating brooklyn 117-92

Click to see full-size image.

toronto, chicago, dallas and san antonio and the la clippers all won for us

portland lost to miami

also yesterday. A player called a "phenomenon", with Lionel Messi

Click to see full-size image.

 

[TightEnd]

Couple of bet suggestions for you:

1) Nelson Piquet Jr. to win the 2015 Formula E Championship. Not had the best results so far (8th, DNF, 2nd, 3rd, 5th), but he seems more and more comfortable every time he gets in the car (I guess that's the case for everyone, but he seems to be settling faster than other drivers). He's getting quicker and quicker too! Price is currently 10/1 which is a value spot IMO. Recommend £25.

http://www.oddschecker.com/motorsport/formula-e/drivers-championship

2) Now, this is a ridiculous long shot. Almost certainly not going to happen, but Lewis Hamilton to win every race in 2015 at 500/1 with Betway is an interesting spot. Like I say, the chances of this happening are insanely low. However, I would say that this does represent value. If you ran the season 500 times, this probably would happen once. This is not so much a suggestion, but I'm more drawing it to the attention of those who like long shots - doesn't get much longer than this! I stuck £1 on - can't go wrong with a pound 

http://www.oddschecker.com/motorsport/formula-one/specials

the Piquet bet is with Paddy Power, they are the only "bookmaker" offering a market in FormulaE

so thats not possible i am afraid

goes to saved files

copies and pastes

"the list of who we can and can't bet with is on the opening post of this thread"

[TightEnd]

After the last NHL debacle of the Ottawa Senators bet last season, I'd like to take another trip to the well and recommend a small bet on the Minnesota Wild to win the Stanley Cup. I believe they have been underrated at Coral who currently go 25/1 (they as short as 12/1 in places).

The Wild had a tepid start to the season, going 18-24 to start until January 15th, at which point they made a trade to acquire a goalie by the name of Devan Dubnyk. Dubnyk was a former 1st round pick from the 2004 draft who had spent his early career getting plenty of practise on poor teams. However, the trade to the Mid-West seems to have lit a spark in him and he has played every contest since his trade - compiling a 25-5-1 record with a .939 save percentage - generally anything exceeding .930 is considered elite.The Wild have won 8 straight on the road and have not conceded 3 goals in a road game since Dubnyk's arrival. Since his arrival, they have moved from 13th in the conference to 7th and the train shows no sign of stopping. They currently hold the first wildcard spot but are 9 points clear of the chasing pack with 12 games of the reg season remaining.

Stanley Cups are won with solid defensive teams who play hard-nosed hockey and take their chances. That is exactly the Wild's MO. I feel that they are still being priced on their early season form and the 25/1 is an under-estimation of their true chances. I think over 7 games I would only have them as small dogs against two teams - the St Louis Blues and New York Rangers.

Rec £10 at 25/1 with Coral

i think in amongst the flim-flam that followed this there was some chatter about doing this e/w?

1/2 the odds for them to get to the stanley cup final....

or i could have taken 14-1 about the conference only

http://www.oddschecker.com/ice-hockey/nhl/western-conference/winner

anyway, semi-executive decision

MIN Wild25/1Stanley Cup - 12/06/2015
£10 Each Way
Stake £20.00
Estimated Return:£395.00
Total Stake: £20.00
Potential Return: £395.00



as i know little about the NHL this helped me wade through the current situation, play off possibilities etc

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2401219-nhl-playoff-picture-2015-updated-standings-and-bracket-outlook


please keep us in touch with the bet

[TightEnd]

Premier League Darts tonight

Any draw value? (he says, eyeing up chisnall v mvg at 5-1)

anything else stand out?

http://www.oddschecker.com/darts/premier-league

[TightEnd]

the big golf this weekend

Arnie Palmer invitational

loads of markets in this

http://www.oddschecker.com/golf/arnold-palmer-invitational

again, if there isn't then no matter, but anything standing out?

[Chompy]

MAX bet time, or as much as betty sportsbook will take.

http://www.countryliving.co.uk/news/vote-britains-national-bird

Robin is 1/2 with Coral, 5/4 from 2/1 with Mountains, but still 2/1 with Betty Sp.

Should be long odds-on imo.

[TightEnd]

MAX bet time, or as much as betty sportsbook will take.

http://www.countryliving.co.uk/news/vote-britains-national-bird

Robin is 1/2 with Coral, 5/4 from 2/1 with Mountains, but still 2/1 with Betty Sp.

Should be long odds-on imo.

for crying out loud.

[arbboy]

We can help control the outcome as well by all voting.  Just voted robin!  Amazing scenes.

[Chompy]

Hope it was TfT money that force the price from 2/1 to 6/4 within minutes? This could cost the industry millions.

This is the best Robin-based bet since Robin Stjernberg crushed Melodifestivalen (rebuffed).

[TightEnd]

6/4 best

i expect they had a few feathers ruffled

coral's market has migrated too


http://www.oddschecker.com/novelty/britains-national-bird/winner

this was the max

Britain's National Bird
£20
3/2
£50.00
Robin
Britain's Favourite Bird - Winner (David Lindo Poll)

Bet Ref: O/0140260/0000128

[TightEnd]

http://www.votenationalbird.com/

on behalf of our red-breasted friends

please vote, and thank you

[vegaslover]

Have bet, only got 6/4 though and voted, as has the mrs apparently

[TightEnd]

I never quite realised how massive the NCAA basketball tournament, that starts tomorrow, was in the US

because we have a position on Duke, i spent an hour last night trawling through some stuff and the deeper i got, the more i could see myself falling into being interested, which i don't have time for but plus ca change

anyway there is a big thing where everyone "chooses their brackets" before the tournament starts

Click to see full-size image.

offices do pools, espn does big money brackets etc etc

about 50% of the brackets currently submitted to ESPN have unbeaten Kentucky winning the torunament



the markets are up

http://www.oddschecker.com/basketball/ncaab

and some of the stuff i read was

The Road(s) to the Final Four: the best and worst-case scenarios for the top tournament teams https://www.sportsinsights.com/blog/the-roads-to-the-final-four/

Duke is No. 1 in South but has lower BPI rank than Gonzaga and less than 30% chance to advance from region http://es.pn/1EkrKAw

Here are six potential MarchMadness upsets in the Round of 64 https://www.numberfire.com/ncaab/news/4719/6-potential-round-of-64-upsets-in-the-ncaa-tournament


if anyone, possibly only limited to moonandback but you never know, wants to get involved, let us know

 

[Omm]

http://www.votenationalbird.com/

on behalf of our red-breasted friends

please vote, and thank you

10 votes and counting, i actually love things like this where u can help with the outcome, reminds me of the MOTM coup during the world cup. Get voting!!!!